Trump has told the UK to sort our own oil supply through the strait of Hormuz!

[notsmokeymcpot42088]

So Israel bombed lebanon killing 252 people and the ceasefire has ceased -- The straight of hormuz is still closed. (closed again, did it ever have time to open?)

^Anyone making there heritage there entire identity is a dork. "Proud to be Irish, Why would I be proud of somewhere I happened to be born" - George Carlin.

 

[chippermonk]

Makes me laugh when americans think they're irish or scottish coz some distant relative moved from ireland or scotland and now they're irish or scottish too. Nah pal, you're an american, don't make it you're whole identity, it's embarrassing and cringe to the fullest.

Hey, I'll have you know I am proud of my Irish-Scottish-English- German-Swiss- Viking- Neanderthal roots! ( plus probably some Genghis Khan from when he pillaged and raped)

 

[notsmokeymcpot42088]

I certainly relate to Ireland more than the US and my family always has -- whether that is good bad or in between is a different thing. Can't blame me for not wanting to identify as an american (and in fairness I NEVER DID) hence "Irish by way of corktown USA"

Grew up irish with irish people and irish culture in a little irish part of america. Still America I suppose

To all those in Ireland Top of the Morning to Ya! ( super authentic irish... )

 

[4DQSAR]

I corespond with a professor in the US who studies conflict. About two weeks ago he simply posted a scene from a film called 'Goodfellas' where a bunch of bikers try to bully the bar staff of a mafia controlled bar. The response was the mafia enforcers to lock the bikers into the bar with them and go on to kick the bejesus out of said bikers.

Now I was not familar with the film but in the last few hours a few news outlets are stating that the US is now in danger of being boxed in - just as my friend predicted with his video clip.

I HAVE mentioned this before but there is still 440.9Kg of 60% enriched 235 'nuclear usable' uranium. The CSIS estimated sufficient fissile material for ten crude 'gun type' physics packages (atom bombs).

So playing devil's advocate, I predict Iran will hurridly construct at least on crude physics package and perform a test WITHIN Iran, likely in the Kavir desert.

Because that shows a capability and provides nuclear ambiguity. Does it have no more? Does it have one more? Does it have nine more?

Let's not forget who first brought nuclear weapons to the Middle East in 1967 and let's not forget who uses nuclear ambiguity and has done since 1967.

Iran knows history. Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan and even it's neighbour, Iraq!

What US analysts fil to grasp is that regime survival is a win for Iran. As long as it can build and loft simple drones towards neighbouring nations, the US just leaving WOULD be seen as it losing and yet after a test, nuclear test how could it possibly leave?

Also, the concept of martyrdom is totally misunderstood. The supreme leader did not hide. He KNEW he would be killed but his death actually alloyed the peoples of Iran and make them think that the US poses an existential threat to ALL Iranians - a thought pattern helped by the US striking schools and other civilian targets.

If you are going to die anyway, you may as well die fighting, become a martyr and go straight to heaven, all sins forgiven.

Meanwhile the US ally has carried on attacking neighbours and will not stop unless forced to BY the US. Even them, CAN the US really prevent their use of convenional weapons when apparnelt they are still under attack themselves? Self defence is certain to be the fig leaf.

 

[notsmokeymcpot42088]

^That is not goodfellas that is "A bronx tale" with Chazz Palminteri. Love that movie -- love that scene. He opened a standup for Chris Destafono(Sp) and used that same line "Now ya'll are not allowed to leave"

The bikers come into a mafia bar and are roughing up the patrons and causing a scene -- they calm things down, show them a little respect....Give them a chance to act right and when they do not... (you have seen the scene)

(IDK if that provides any extra context to the metaphor of that video but yup, good movie!) -- I like the takeaway that the kid "Got two educations, one on the streets and one in school" while emphasizing how lucky he was to survive former education

This whole thing feels like a win for Iran - at least for now. I agree with "If you gunna die anyways ya might as well die fighting" -- but I would like to think our similarities (Iran's regime/marty's) end about there!

All good points that are not necessarily great news....

 

[4DQSAR]

I wouldn't know - I'm just describing the scene from the clip I saw.

 

[notsmokeymcpot42088]

Pretty sure it has Deniro and Pesci too (Ahh goodfella's easy mistake) -- its worth a watch if you ever have time

 

[4DQSAR]

I don't own a TV. But thanks for thinking of me, that's speaks well of you as a person.

But sadly, I suspect as long as Iran can grind out simple drones built by semi-skilled workers in small, distributed workshops then it WILL continue to do so. Because NOW is when Iran is best placed to cause the US to retreat OR put boots on the ground. A dilemma.

IF Iran performs a nuclear test, while the nine nuclear nations will all condemn it, the other 185 nations may look and think that nukes is the ONLY thing that will stop the US invading their nations, so it's set off a chain of proliferation likely to go on for decades.

Even nations like Japan joke about 'the bomb in the basement' because they could build quite a sophisticated weapon in a matter of months. JAPAN! A supposed US ally but the Don just trashed them.

But I do predict that IF Iran can test a physics package, it will.

Can it pop one on top of one of it's ballistic missiles (or indeed cruse missiles). NO. Emphatically NO.

In a decade then yes, Iran has IRBMs so the US ally would then be in range. But the US homeland, no.

Yes Iran put satellites into orbit, but they were small and did not need a re-entry shield. Even the monkey was a fraud. I'm no expert on simian physiognomy, but clearly, the before and after were NOT the same ape.

Let's not forget why the Soviets wanted to base IRBMs in Cuba - it's ICBMs were still liquid-fuelled and so are Irans. So thay take DAYS to set up for a launch hence the US and latterly Russia and China (the latter two only partly) swapping to solid fuels in it's ballistic missiles. Too slow when Keyhole spy satellites can provide days of warning.

 

[LoginNotSecure]

I certainly relate to Ireland more than the US and my family always has -- whether that is good bad or in between is a different thing. Can't blame me for not wanting to identify as an american (and in fairness I NEVER DID) hence "Irish by way of corktown USA"

Grew up irish with irish people and irish culture in a little irish part of america. Still America I suppose

To all those in Ireland Top of the Morning to Ya! ( super authentic irish... )

And I’m jewish by way of mecca.

Load of waffle my good man! You’re an american with a false sense of identity.

 

[4DQSAR]

Trump warns of fresh strikes if Iran talks fail – as it happened

US president says that warships are being reloaded with weaponry to strike Iran if Saturday’s Islamabad talks fail to produce a deal

www.theguardian.com

Now I admit, I had not factored in just how well Iran has got the Strait of Hormuz closed to all unfriendly nations and it seems is now charging a toll/levy/tax on vessels that wish to traverse the strait.

It's a much more low-tech methodology of demonstrating that it can effectively rob the US and it's ally of all and any potential new allies. Because rational nations know that that the US applied a double-standard. Invade Panama because the canal is important to US navel power then act surprised when a nation closes a narrow strait because it's important to THEIR navel power? Cerainly if Iran attacked the USA while using the Gulf of Mexico to transport vital cargo, wouldn't the US close the Gulf to Iranian shipping?

I still suspect that Iran MAY be hurridly putting togeter a crude fission (or fission-fission) physics package because it's never a bad idea to have a plan B.

They cannot possibly develop a deliverable weapon, but they can produce nuclear ambiguity - then what? Will Israel send troops to Iran? Will the US? OR, can Iran use the remaining 400Kg (approximately) as a powerful bargaining tool?

The problem is, Iran has zero trust in either nation, so the US may have to accept that from now on, all shipping that passes through that strait will have to pay - Iran has simply said it's compensation for all the civilian infrastructure (not forgetting all of those lives).

 

[notsmokeymcpot42088]

And I’m jewish by way of mecca.

Load of waffle my good man! You’re an american with a false sense of identity.

You know I should just hit the ignore button but it just is not my strong suit (Sorry 4d lol). I do wish this fairly important thread would not be sidetracked though --- message me! We can gun it out for years, you speak hebrew, made any attempts? Been to the holy land?

My response would have to be : Who the hell are you to say I have a false identity. If it weren't for aunt ira we never woulda got here - I will stop there before I protesteth too much. Protestant'ing isn't really our thing.

Really strange angle to come at somebody from; as a student of psychology I could make some presumptions about what kind of person derives pleasure in attempting to cut into anothers identity - bothered me from the first cheapshot.
(Very un-Irish to fuck with psychology I know -- it doesn't work on us doesnt mean we dont grasp it lol)

Do better please - you remind me of a fella with cognitive dissonance (Ja'cussa!) like i speak french hehe --

You using a fake handle to throw stones or "LoginNotSecure" the handle you chose? (It wont take long to find out)

 

[Perkins : Reborn]

Protestant'ing isn't really our thing.

Coming from a second generation immigrant, you really need to forget that stuff. Ireland has thankfully moved on.

 

[Perkins : Reborn]

I'm regarded as British by many in Ireland. Which is fair enough. On the other hand I get adopted as being 'from Cork'. I was born on a godforsaken hillside in the historic county of Lancashire.

 

[ageingpartyfiend]

I'm regarded as British by many in Ireland. Which is fair enough. On the other hand I get adopted as being 'from Cork'. I was born on a godforsaken hillside in the historic county of Lancashire.

Pendle Hill, I presume

 

[Perkins : Reborn]

Nope. It's now technically Greater Manchester, but that was very much resisted back then. Also very close to the historic east Cheshire, which also resisted.

I still haven't forgotten you knowing some pubs in East Manchester!

 

[notsmokeymcpot42088]

once more I will say; Anyone making there heritage there entire identity is a dork.
"Proud to be Irish, Why would I be proud of somewhere I happened to be born" - George Carlin.

Here is a fun one "It's 5'd connect 4" --- Here is a real quote regarding this from his own team (Little vague axios but ill manage)

"This isn't 3D Chess -- It's 12-dimensional. He (Trump) contradicts himself regularly, so nobody knows what he's thinking. It's on purpose" I should write for the whitehouse lol

 

[LoginNotSecure]

once more I will say; Anyone making there heritage there entire identity is a dork.
"Proud to be Irish, Why would I be proud of somewhere I happened to be born" - George Carlin.

Here is a fun one "It's 5'd connect 4" --- Here is a real quote regarding this from his own team (Little vague axios but ill manage)

"This isn't 3D Chess -- It's 12-dimensional. He (Trump) contradicts himself regularly, so nobody knows what he's thinking. It's on purpose" I should write for the whitehouse lol

Jesus Christ are you a boring cunt.

Live a little, have a Guinness and quieten down there little fella.

 

[Bleaney]

But sadly, I suspect as long as Iran can grind out simple drones built by semi-skilled workers in small, distributed workshops then it WILL continue to do so. Because NOW is when Iran is best placed to cause the US to retreat OR put boots on the ground. A dilemma.

I heard somewhere that during their conflict with Russia, the Ukranians have become highly knowledgeable and adept at building inexpensive drones that can bring down extremely expensive warplanes, or at least cause major issues for them. And they have been selling these cheap devices to Iran, costing only a couple of hundred dollars each, but they are capable of bringing down hugely expensive warplanes, or at least meaning they need to deploy missiles to deal with the drones, and those missiles also cost huge sums of money.

It's quite an interesting twist how cheap technology can scupper even the biggest and wealthiest air forces or military powers, if they encounter things that they were not prepared for. Things exactly like these cheap drones. They are nothing high tech at all, and made in basic workshops, with relatively basic tools and skills, like you say.

 

[4DQSAR]

I heard somewhere that during their conflict with Russia, the Ukranians have become highly knowledgeable and adept at building inexpensive drones that can bring down extremely expensive warplanes, or at least cause major issues for them.

Ukraine has been very clever. Because so much footage has been recorded, it can be used as an AI training-set. But right now, the US attitude to Ukraine might mean that an EU consortium of militaries buy up the data, experience and designs.

Designs of drones all the way from tiny observation drones throught grenade-droppers and attack drones and right up to and including the Flamingo design. It LOOKS shonky but the design means many off-the-shelf jet engines can be used (lower cost, no bottlenecks). People may laugh but if it takes three flamingos or one Tomahawk to do the job, the Flamingo is still the cheaper.

Note that as soon as the Don unilarerally decided to drop sanctions on Russia, Ukraine has expended a lot of materiel in destroying oil terminals so Russia CANNOT export.

 

[fuckabout89]

I don't own a TV. But thanks for thinking of me, that's speaks well of you as a person.

But sadly, I suspect as long as Iran can grind out simple drones built by semi-skilled workers in small, distributed workshops then it WILL continue to do so. Because NOW is when Iran is best placed to cause the US to retreat OR put boots on the ground. A dilemma.

IF Iran performs a nuclear test, while the nine nuclear nations will all condemn it, the other 185 nations may look and think that nukes is the ONLY thing that will stop the US invading their nations, so it's set off a chain of proliferation likely to go on for decades.

Even nations like Japan joke about 'the bomb in the basement' because they could build quite a sophisticated weapon in a matter of months. JAPAN! A supposed US ally but the Don just trashed them.

But I do predict that IF Iran can test a physics package, it will.

Can it pop one on top of one of it's ballistic missiles (or indeed cruse missiles). NO. Emphatically NO.

In a decade then yes, Iran has IRBMs so the US ally would then be in range. But the US homeland, no.

Yes Iran put satellites into orbit, but they were small and did not need a re-entry shield. Even the monkey was a fraud. I'm no expert on simian physiognomy, but clearly, the before and after were NOT the same ape.

Let's not forget why the Soviets wanted to base IRBMs in Cuba - it's ICBMs were still liquid-fuelled and so are Irans. So thay take DAYS to set up for a launch hence the US and latterly Russia and China (the latter two only partly) swapping to solid fuels in it's ballistic missiles. Too slow when Keyhole spy satellites can provide days of warning.

They'll never do it bro, they have no hardliners left. There entire government is controlled by Mossad/CIA controlled officials or incompetent fools. Iran is most likely gonna collapse and become a rump state with constant civil war like. Syria. Then after there done with Iran Turkey and possibly Pakistan is next. Unless a miracle figure comes along and saves it like a Lenin or Stalin there finished same with Russia.