Still, hard to accurately do the maths without knowing the demographic breakdown. You could do it very roughly with general mortality risk but that's potentially not fair in either direction.
You did half a calculation just now.
How many people out of 100k are likely to die in a 6 (or 12) month period?
Deaths per 100,000 in Australia are somewhere between 500 and 1000.
Increase the mortality risk of the number of infected people by 5%... and does that account for the 4,000? I don't think so.
haha yes that's why i stopped there, because i have no idea how you extrapolate from a couple of % increase in likelihood of death (when i don't even know the original %). but yeah it probably doesn't account for all of the 4000. assuming a 1% death rate (so 1000 per 100k) normally and a 2-3x increase would give 2-3k more deaths.
This is another point (I've thought of like half a dozen now) that I didn't add to the initial list of potential deaths from lockdowns. I, personally, neglected my medical and dental visits because of COVID. I have a couple of relatively serious conditions. I also know numerous people who were disallowed surgeries because priority was given to COVID patients, who - at least after 2020 - were largely unvaccinated.
i get what you're saying but i don't think you can blame you neglecting your health entirely on lockdowns, like there is a definite impact on mental health and thus ability to care for physical health, but assuming your follow ups were available to you, it isn't the lockdown per se that caused that.
i've had the opposite. in general i try to ignore my health because its fucked and there's nothing i can do apart from try to lead a healthier lifestyle now. but the NHS has not allowed me to, had some cancer screening stuff and all these lung investigations.
the impact on surgeries is a nightmare and i feel awful for the people stuck in the backlog. but again, that's not really lockdowns, that's the finite amount of resources, people, operating theatres etc.
In this African country, children aren't allowed to leave the house because of COVID. My brothers kids are being home-schooled by him. This has been going on longer than any adult lockdown in the world. It's madness.
that s fucking horrendous. like there is no scientific justification for not allowing children to leave their own house. i agree that is madness. the impact on children even over here where we've been relatively lax is awful and its one of the myriad reasons why i would not support any further lockdowns in the UK. there needs to be some pragmatism.
Beyond the impact the lockdowns have had globally on the death rate (and perhaps you're right, maybe it is marginal) they have had an extraordinary effect on generations of children. My daughter hardly interacted with anyone except for her parents for months at a time. I have mental health problems. My wife has mental health problems. We needed help from our family and it wasn't available.
I see severely disabled people that I work with (the very people we were supposed to vaccinate ourselves to protect) suffering from the lockdowns and the mandates.
My grandmother has lead a hard life. She was alive during both world wars (EDIT: no, that's not possible - I am very high right now). She is almost a hundred. She is vaccinated. My father is up there, right now. He booked a ticket as soon as they changed the rules. He's been watching like a hawk, waiting for a chance to see his mother.
He sent me a message to say that she can't understand what he's saying because he has to wear a mask and a shield. She's confused by the whole situation. They tell her it's for her own good, but it's not at this point. She doesn't have many years left. She deserves to die on her terms.
that is really sad. can't believe i'm saying this but actually makes me kinda glad my granny (i basically only had 1 gradnparent) isn't around, she'd have been way over 100, had serious mobility problems since before i was born, this would have been awful for her.
Sometimes I imagine people perceiving me as hostile. We're all good. The support you provide on this website is essential. You're a good soul.
Likewise, I'm sorry if I've rubbed you the wrong way.
When COVID started, I was a new parent buying their first house and going back into the workforce after a long hiatus. Life was super hard already, without this virus. I can't help but draw the line somewhere.
you haven't, don't worry. i think we're broadly in agreement that around here is where the line is.
i don't know if it makes you feel better, but you can get to the end of this knowing you did the right thing, and you did it from a place of love for those around you. whether it turned out eventually to make much of a difference (and i think you probably did, its just hard to see that someone you never met didn't die because you didn't pass covid forward) or not doesn't matter, your intentions were good and you took the course of action least likely to harm others around you based on the information you had.