Jabberwocky
Frumious Bandersnatch
the death data are available- and i fully trust the denialists in this thread to have posted every single death that can even be vaguely linked directly to the impact of a lockdown. they have not. nor has anyone else proposed a mechanism by which lockdowns themselves could have contributed to those deaths.The data you are requesting is not available.
fair enough,I meant the long term effects of COVID, including long COVID... which is what I thought you meant. Either way, it doesn't matter.
if 900 people died of covid directly, there would have been (very conservatively) approximately 100k cases in total. depending on age and severity of infection, people would have been 1.7-3.3% more likely to die 6-12 months after infection than had then not been infected (these numbers are from the articles i posted). i think this accounts for a significant proportion of the excess deaths.I appreciate that but can you quote something (rather than linking it) that indicates how much more likely people are to die?
I respect your opinion.
Do you honestly believe that more than four times the number of people died from COVID (*just to be clear, I mean: long term effects from COVID not long-COVID specifically) than were reported during those 10 months in 2020?
I find that very difficult to believe.
you are talking about the specific causes of death of people who have already died. in theory, you could look up every single cause of death and work it out. i don't know how australia reports such things so whether we personally could look it up, but it is in principle knowable.It's impossible to say. The reason I keep saying the data you are requesting is unavailable is because it's impossible to measure the damage lockdowns have done to people's health. Pretty much everyone I know put on at least 10 pounds. I know two people who've had gastric bypass surgery because they ballooned so much. Not to mention the stress. You can't measure the stress.
don't worry, you're not offending me and i apologise if i'm being a bit aggressive. i'm annoyed with myself for getting involved in this thread again and shouldn't be taking it out on you.I'm not nitpicking. You have certain educational advantages over me in this discussion, but that doesn't make you correct. Sometimes people are too close to their fields. I'm not suggesting this applies to you. I'm just saying, I don't have your faith in science and I don't take it for granted that educated people have the answers. This is not heated for me. I'm trying to tread carefully here. I like you. I don't want to offend you.
there's some info here:I don't have a technical objection, but I'm not going to treat it like gospel either.
It doesn't explain the 4,000 extra deaths in that period of time in Australia.

Provisional Mortality Statistics, Jan 2020 - Oct 2021
Provisional deaths data for measuring changes in patterns of mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic and recovery period
it agrees with the 2 articles i posted, that contrary to my intuition people aren't actually more likely to die from heart and lung problems. deaths due to cancer and diabetes increased. you will know better than me but i hope at least 1 good thing to come out of australias draconian lockdowns is that services for cancer and diabetes patients shouldn't have been impacted due to wider strsses on health services. i know that diabetes complicates literally every health issue so it wouldn't surprise me if getting covid increases risks to diabetic patients. but this is pure speculation on my part.
i'm sorry you're so burnt out. its such a stressful time to be in any healthcare related job. i really hope that things relax a bit for you soon, it has been fucking relentless for nearly 2 years now.I'm sorry if it came across that way. I'm just burnt out. I work in an industry with very high standards in terms of COVID safety so it's still affecting me much more than it is many other Australians and I'm so over it, it's not funny.