I've had an evolutionary psych and an evolutionary bio class and Id be so curious to hear what my professors would say.
But Ill put it this way, anytime a student had a "theory" the professor would falsify the theory in about 2 seconds.
I have to say till this day the evo psych class was the most mind blowing class Ive ever taken, its like I learned SO MUCH but I actually didnt learn anything.
But I do recall a lot of talk about how the environment weeds out traits of the gene. A variety of genes are produced and certain ones "accidentally" survive due to the relative random climate/condition of the environment.
You also NEVER just look at one trait which is what a lot of you are doing.
This may have nothing to do with the alkaloids in the plant but the general growing behavoir of the plant. Every knows poppies grows rampid like a weed in so many different environments. And Id venture to say its survival has little to do with its alkaloids, Id say its POPULARITY has everything to do with the akaloids however.
But even w/out the alkaloids theres a good chance poppies would be prevalent in a lot of parts of the world simply because of its growing behavior, short cycle times or w/e Im trying to say. To determine the reproductive success/potential of a gene you must take into account all traits of that gene, not just one.