They're just going to pipe it to the red sea. Nothing Iran can do about it.
Houthi rebels?
I've already pointed out that Panamax allows almost all bulk carriers to pass through the Panama canal. The only caveat is that VLCCs and ULCCs have to pump the crude through the Trans-Panama pipeline. 101-105 million barrels are consumed each day, that pipeline can only pump 860,000 barrels per day. But there are still enough LCCs in operation for them to pass through the canal without using the pipeline. As of January 2026, 2.3 million barrels passed through the canal each day, but other carriers also use that canal so in theory, if the canal was used purely to ship crude, it could ship 19-20 million barrels per day (but maintainence and other issues reduce that maximum).
Worst case the Cape of Good Hope is already used by some ULCCs so 11% of the global crude transport already goes the long way around.
So Houthi rebels are the only issue and they have been surprisingly quiet. Typically, the Don will only act if and when the Houthis start using anti-shipping missiles while in fact, since the Houthis HAVE already hurled a few ballistic missiles at Israel, they are a legitimate target. But know that people are thinking these things through.
It's like thinking regime change is the answer. It seems we all suffered collective amnesia after millions of Iranians protested, tens of thousands were killed and all of the leaders were disappeared. Support THEN might have offered regime change.
Are we now getting the message that the current Israeli government and specifically The Mossad might not have been a reliable source for vital information? I'm not taking a pop at The Mossad. It IS true that Iran has developed IRBMs and so they would be in range. But there is a gulf between IRBMs and ICBMs. The entire Cuban Missile Crisis was because the Soviets only had a handful of liquid-fuelled ICBMs that had to be set up for launch i.e. it took hours from deciding to launch and actually launching. Something overflights would spot - accuracy was also terrible and with typical Russian humour, one Soviet general responded that the accuracy problem had been overcome by adding more plutonium.
It is VERY complex but I do think it true that victory for Iran is regime survival. Regional neighbours will see it as a victory. What US analysts don't seem to understand is that being martyred (as the supreme leader was on the very first day) is NOT seen as a loss. Martyrdom is almost certainly what he intended. To lead by example.
But I am still hopeful that de-escalation mediated by Pakistan (a nation with links to both sides) will yield results. I'm hopeful that Iran still has all of that 440.9Kg as if handing that over satisfies the US and it's ally, both sides can claim a victory, no more lives are lost and that an enhanced JCPOA can be put in place.
But never forget the first Middle Eastern nation to have nuclear weapons since 1967. So possibly they also need to be part of that JCPOA+ agreement.
... lol and make petro $ money.
