War on Drugs a Success

bit_pattern said:
Lol, so the figure is *actually* closer to a million - but you're lot decided to promote the lowest metric out of those available to give the impression that the problem is much smaller than it really is? Just as long as we've got that cleared up :D
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You would be right if you can you show that the figure of 500,000 heroin users in 1976 United States represented anyone who had used heroin even once in the last year.
 
I tried reading it moseman, got a couple pages in and they start talking about theories of why people use methadone, blah blah blah. also, their editor ran out of coffee part way through. "the solution may be to develop an array of alternative definitions fo reflect the dispersion of experience." makes me wonder how thorough they are with checking statistics.

"His resulting estimate for active heroin users is of considerably higher magnitude than has been found by other methodologies, Though admitting he has presented a “rough” estimate, Hunt believes that the prevalence figure is in the several millions rather than the generally accepted hundreds of thousands." Interesting.
 
theWhiteLarryBird said:
I tried reading it moseman, got a couple pages in and they start talking about theories of why people use methadone, blah blah blah. also, their editor ran out of coffee part way through. "the solution may be to develop an array of alternative definitions fo reflect the dispersion of experience." makes me wonder how thorough they are with checking statistics.

"His resulting estimate for active heroin users is of considerably higher magnitude than has been found by other methodologies, Though admitting he has presented a “rough” estimate, Hunt believes that the prevalence figure is in the several millions rather than the generally accepted hundreds of thousands." Interesting.
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I would assume the whole thing was produced on a typewriter.
Ya. In Table 5 they add 699 + 125 = 624 ?
As far as overall accuracy, people are known to make mistakes; that doesn't change just because the year is 2014 and we have computers.
Some minor mistakes do not necessarily spell doom for the whole affair.
 
pmoseman said:
I would assume the whole thing was produced on a typewriter.
Ya. In Table 5 they add 699 + 125 = 624 ?
As far as overall accuracy, people are known to make mistakes; that doesn't change just because the year is 2014 and we have computers.
Some minor mistakes do not necessarily spell doom for the whole affair.
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It's the second supposedly rock-solid source you've presented that's been found to have glaring and basic errors in calculation - first the population error, now this. That's significant.
 
S.J.B. said:
4: In 1971, there were 898 deaths in the United States caused by overdoses on all painkillers (including heroin) and fever-reducing drugs. In 2010 (latest CDC data available), there were 3,094 heroin overdose deaths.



5: In 1976, there were 1,067 deaths caused by painkillers (including heroin) and fever-reducing drugs.



6: As my previous numbers show, the number of heroin overdose deaths in 2010 was roughly three times the number of all painkiller and fever-reducing drug deaths combined in 1976.

Anyway, I'm fucking tired and had to re-search some of these numbers after I noticed that the article was from 2011, so I'm stopping there for now... but do I get the beer? The guy's got some numbers right (21 million illicit drug users, 200,000 heroin users - although it's jumped up to 335,000 since then) but some of them are evidently bullshit.
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I am not sold 100% on these numbers.
One obvious trouble is I had no luck finding them in the document, perhaps you can provide a page number?

The other reason I am troubled is the wording. It would be nice to find a value specifically for heroin. Source #10 shows heroin being associated with at least 551 deaths in 1976. This is already half the deaths you have for OD on meds(including heroin). I am fairly sure nobody had heroin as a medicine in 1971-1976, but perhaps? It seems sort of odd way to list it. I hope to have a conclusion soon.

#10 source seems to make it fairly obvious that past year use was higher in 1976 than today, but any direct comparison with the DEA claim has eluded me. I have a theory on where he got 500k, but it still seems possible that his number could be accurate.
 
ro4eva said:
As the former head of the DEA, Peter Bensinger's uncited, biased article contains about as much credibility as the amount of gold found in my shit - even when I sprinkle gold bits on my cookies.
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Obviously I am running out of ideas when all I can do is point out irony.
 
weekend addiction said:
Has anyone referenced the similarity to Bush's mission accomplished speech?
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You guys have been begging me to post this crap. Pouring me into the mold of someone who spews dribble about how prison is just desserts and the war on drugs just needs more money. I would think you would have something better to do with the opportunity.

A couple of you can callously tear apart each iota of falsehood this old-world DEA agent has, 5 whole years, who knows how he managed that, 40 years ago, but the vast majority don't have anything better to say than he does, about the war on drugs ruining your world.

Ya. Prison stinks. I haven't seen it kill more people than the cities themselves. Let alone the drugs. You have no basis, no apt comparison. You represent a very small minority, you can't just sit around posting affirmations at one another. Representing the majority and making intelligent points is not that hard.

You know what the majority of pop op-eds out there are? The war on drugs cost 1 trillion dollars and accomplished nothing. That is THEM feeding YOU thoughts. Not the other way around, OK? That is just as bullheaded and boneheaded as this crap, more so! You should be just as upset about it.
 
Hey fly, before you point fingers, make sure your hands are clean. your arguments are no better than ours. And no ones one your side, homeboy.
 
pmoseman said:
I am not sold 100% on these numbers.
One obvious trouble is I had no luck finding them in the document, perhaps you can provide a page number?

The other reason I am troubled is the wording. It would be nice to find a value specifically for heroin. Source #10 shows heroin being associated with at least 551 deaths in 1976. This is already half the deaths you have for OD on meds(including heroin). I am fairly sure nobody had heroin as a medicine in 1971-1976, but perhaps? It seems sort of odd way to list it. I hope to have a conclusion soon.
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Ctrl-F "poisoning", you'll find a table a couple hits down with all the poisoning deaths listed by substance.

#10 source seems to make it fairly obvious that past year use was higher in 1976 than today, but any direct comparison with the DEA claim has eluded me. I have a theory on where he got 500k, but it still seems possible that his number could be accurate.
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I had trouble finding that value. I think this is a useless comparison, though. In the 1970s people who used opioids illicitly were overwhelmingly using heroin. Today, we have a whole slew of similar opioids that are commonly used. A more useful comparison would be illicit opioid users then to illicit opioid users now. I don't know the former value, but the 2009 NSDUH listed 13 million past-year illicit opioid users.
 
Why are you comparing the death toll of US prisons to the death toll of a war? Maybe theyre related, but it's a pretty worthless comparison. I'd like to see the proportion of free vs jailed population in the US.

pmoseman said:
Representing the majority and making intelligent points is not that hard.
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Sure. Its not. But when the inverse (you) makes arguments like tobacco doesnt cause cancer and "jail is totally chill, dude," its pretty obvious who is grasping at straws and who is using the very same straw to snort up your arguments and spit them out like loogies.
 
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SJB. Do you honestly think I don't know how to use search buddy? It is not working on my phone.
Larry. Nobody is on the side of drug prohibition? Is that even the side I am on? Correcting errors on a drug message board does not make me a prohibitionist. Death toll of war? Tobacco doesn't cause cancer? What words are you reading?
Never sick anymore. Did I ever say the drug war worked? It would be hard since I couldn't even tell you what the drug war is.
Bit pattern. 3.1% of the population is 6.7 million people? Check your facts and step down from your high-horse.
 
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