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  • LAVA Moderator: streaM Freak

the market: stocks, bonds, options, whatever

With some of the reports comparing these times to pre 2008 crash levels and the 29 crash. I want to protect my holdings with gold and silver.
 
ions said:
With some of the reports comparing these times to pre 2008 crash levels and the 29 crash. I want to protect my holdings with gold and silver.
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I've withdrawn 33% of my pension allocation from index funds, and put that money into the much safer money markets funds option. (It's basically like a savings account, based on UK government loans, and is largely safe from any crash, and pays a slightly better rate than most savings accounts, if you don't get MMFs in the USA, and don't know what they are.)

I did that about 6 months ago, and have lost out on several hundreds of pounds of growth that has occured since then. :rolleyes:

Of course no one, except the very lucky, will be able to perfectly predict the top of the market, and historically speaking Warren Buffet has always known when markets are overvalued, and has withdrawn his money from the markets before any huge crashes.

He was 3 years too early on one relatively recent occasion, and one year too early on another. He's just done the same thing again now, so who knows how good the timing of his decision will turn out to be, on this occasion.

It seems that it's definitely a question of when and not if, the markets are going to at least substantially correct the apparent extreme overvaluations of the USA tech giants in particular.

Maybe I should increase my 'safe allocation' to 40% or more, given that I'm not that far away from retirement, and obviously have no way of knowing when the crash will occur, and how long it will last.

It's difficult as withdrawing too early misses out on lots of potential growth, and withdrawing too little and not early enough may mean many sleepless nights and worries if the crash is severe and prolonged.,

Several forecasters are predicting that any crash or correction will be relatively brief, this seems to have been increasingly the trend over more recent years, according to the forecasters predicting this.
 
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However, when you're working with the dollar @Bleaney you run the risk of everything going to 0 overnight. It's the weakest it's ever been. and we're printing $2T a year to continue to fight useless wars. At any token, precious metals are a hedge against hyperinflation and Gold IRAs such as those with birchgold.com are your best bet to be safe and protect against the reckless spending by our ruling class.
 
ions said:
However, when you're working with the dollar @Bleaney you run the risk of everything going to 0 overnight.
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lol that's not gonna happen any time soon

holding [physical] gold may be a hedge against inflation but so is holding S&P 500, which can be bought and sold at spot price with very little spread, unlike gold.
 
If the Moderna melanoma data is legit this time, then it validates the potential for it's entire oncology pipeline. Melanoma could peak at $3B/yr which they'll split with Merck, but the rest of the pipeline is why it added like 2/3rds of its gain not counting however much is due to short covering
 
thujone said:
where are u getting info on this? iirc u linked a site before just for farma data but it was subscription
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Sites like https://www.biopharmawatch.com/ https://www.fdatracker.com/fda-calendar/ https://www.biopharmcatalyst.com/ are good for following dates, like expected data releases, fda meeting dates like PDUFA, and so on

Mostly I just do a bunch of googling once I already have a company on the radar. Let's say I just found Moderna, I'd go to the companies website first to see their pipeline https://www.modernatx.com/research/product-pipeline then go and look at the amount of patients in whatever trials I'm interested in, what the primary and secondary endpoint goals are, when data readouts are expected, if they have partnerships and the details of those partnerships for each trial, then go and look up the Total Addressable Market for the drug/treatment/vaccine, which is where AI makes it a lot quicker now. Just search something like "Moderna melanoma TAM".

Then you gotta look up potential competitors and if there's anything already approved and if other companies trials are ahead or behind the company you're looking at. Then you gotta actually read the phase 2 or 3 data which you can also use AI for now to compare it to others

Then you can mostly use AI searches every week for any updates to the info you already know. Blogs and Twitter are good to search the ticker symbol too for various reasons

Look at all of the trials they have under Oncology on the moderna link above. All of those just increased a lot in potential to succeed
 
do you sub to these sites? i'm already paying a bunch for tradingview and the live data, but it pays for itself in a day so good investment
 
Well, I'll take the short gains for now. Hopefully it steers into cocaine territory again. Cocaine territory is anytime bitcoin hits a new high.
 
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