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  • LAVA Moderator: streaM Freak

the market: stocks, bonds, options, whatever

They should make a move by buying something with debt. They're in like 200M vehicles. Profitable now too. Maybe it is an actual turnaround story
 
Felt like 2007-08 uranium mania. CCJ did buy Westinghouse and actually has a great future tho, unlike most of the nuclear stocks back then
 
yea there's some good mining ETFs

i gave up leveraged ETFs and just focus on options now

got back into NDX and spreads can be rough but good for premium
 
Scaling into bitcoin around this level seems smarter than buying gold here, which sounds kinda crazy
 
It's just about accumulating it around the 200 week moving average. That's it. That's the entire play, besides deciding when to sell

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look at how the curve has been flattening where interest rates have gone up

bitcoin worked when it was seen as a gold substitute in the ZIRP era

but now it's more closely correlated with growth assets and that makes it riskier because why invest in Bitcoin when you can just invest in tech stocks that cash flow and reinvest?
 
thujone said:
now it's more closely correlated with growth assets and that makes it riskier because why invest in Bitcoin when you can just invest in tech stocks that cash flow and reinvest?
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Investing in individual tech stocks is potentially as risky as investing in Bitcoin, unless you're really expert level knowledgeable about all aspects of the company, and its competitors, and market conditions in general. Pick the wrong tech company and you could lose a fortune. Although pick the right ones, and you could make a fortune. Unless you meant buying into the tech heavy Nasdaq index fund, or something like that?

I'm just doing what most of the financial influencers advise, buying a globally diversified index fund, a regular amount every month.

It may be boring, but it's steady, and statistically it is the method that is most likely to provide consistent positive returns over the medium to long term.

I do also go off on more obscure funds, some of which have done very well. Australia for example. My timing of the buy and sell was incredibly lucky. I caught the bottom and the top, almost exactly. I only wish I'd had more money to put in!

Same with a European fund. Even the UK's humble FTSE 100 index fund, and a UK dividend fund, have been performing very well. And it's been my top performer over the last couple of weeks. Clearly the markets like our new PM and his chancellor, and their financial policies.

I had a big fail with an Emerging Markets fund. I soon found out that the risk level was not for me. Soon after buying in the Chinese government introduced some policies that made things extremely difficult for their tech companies, IIRC, and after a couple of years of the figures being deep in red, I gave up on it, and sold up, at a loss, (justified breaking a golden rule to myself on account of the 'sunk cost fallacy' argument), and bought more heavily into global /USA funds instead. Put it all down to a 'learning experience.' The global and USA funds did extremely well over the intervening years, and more than made up for my relatively light losses in the EM. I had waited for a 6 month high before selling, to try and minimise the losses as much as possible.

But I gather the EMs have had a very good run over more recent times. Not sure if it would be anything like the level of returns that Global and USA funds have delivered over the last 4-5 years.
 
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at the end of the day, the U.S. is still the cleanest dirty shirt and has the most liquid markets.

KOSPI was a recent example of what happens when liquidity suddenly dries up, big crash and mass liquidations.

EM funds are exposed based on their holdings... I don't think any of us really consider China or SK to be emerging but that's how they're classified and so EM funds can be heavy on tech exposure.

FTSE 100 is likely benefiting heavily from not just banks but also energy companies like Shell and BP

In the U.S., Exxon and Chevron have likewise been rising and Canadian energy, too

Canada is the one economy most people overlook and shouldn't, if stability is the aim.

We have some of the best performing banks in the world that themselves are globally diversified, and ruthless about risk management.

I also invest in individual companies here without worry because they have stable business models and in some cases industry leaders, e.g. Cameco

But many foreign investors look at Canada and their first thought is "what do they do, lumber?"
 
That's some interesting high-level stuff. I think it's good to think about the macro stuff before honing in on what more specifically interests you, as opposed to the opposite which would be finding something very specific and then creating a narrative around it.

And of course, these days every confident decision should probably come with a fraction of a percentage taken off due to continued failure to be a peaceful world. Or maybe even a couple full percentage points off for risk of species extinction.

What do we think?
 
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