My liquid assets are split between Canadian bills, global bonds, and prediction markets right now. I have more confidence in my ability to make money in prediction markets than I do in the equity market at current valuations. It's kind of like junk bonds but with a better rate of interest.
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the market: stocks, bonds, options, whatever
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Electrum1
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Bitcoin at the 200W moving average 
www.coinglass.com
Bitcoin 200-Week Moving Average Heatmap (200WMA) | CoinGlass
The CoinGlass Bitcoin 200-Week Moving Average Heatmap (200WMA) visually illustrates Bitcoin’s price performance relative to its 200-week moving average. Using color gradients to show deviations from the long-term mean, red tones indicate overvaluation while green tones highlight undervalued...
www.coinglass.com
Bleaney
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I keep forgetting how much the value of money has eroded, especially over the last few years. Inflation has been totally fucked, plus the long term freezing of the personal tax allowance in the UK, means that although my wages have gone up, my take home pay is pretty much the same as it was 5, 10, 20, 25 years ago, maybe even less! While the prices of everything have gone through the roof. Everything is totally fucked up, seemingly everywhere, in most countries all over the world.
The only way to have kept the value of your money inline with inflation, or even beating it over the last few years, has been to invest in globally diversified index funds, or USA only index funds. Obviously, the incredible growth is all down to the big 'magnificent 7' tech companies and their race to produce the best AI. The market prices are shockingly overvalued though in these companies. With investors currently effectively paying 42 dollars for every 1 dollar these companies earn. Most of these 7 giants are actually making losses in their AI ventures. But this huge stock market bubble just keeps going on up, despite all of that, despite Donald Trump and his tariffs, despite the war in the Gulf. These things have only resulted in minor dips for a few weeks, and then the markets just keep going almost insanely upwards, constantly breaking new all time highs.
For every you tube financial markets related content creator predicting severe imminent crashes, that will last 10-15 years, you get others saying the market has at least 2 more years of exceptional growth. Although I think the people who know the most, fully admit that they have no idea what the market is going to do next. or when it's going to do it. Or maybe the most sensible forecast is that there may be some 'correction' at some point, and then growth will be a lot slower and lower for the next chapter, over the next decade or so.
By sheer luck I've done pretty well over the last few years, as has everyone who's been in the markets, in global or USA and even UK index fund trackers. (The UK market has had a major boost over the last couple of years, with many saying it's due to people spooked by the apparent bubble of the USA market, and looking to diversify.) As with everyone, I only wish I'd had more money to invest and grow. But even with my own modest investments I've made big gains. With my own retirement less than 10 years away, I'm having to do a lot of researching and thinking regarding my own plan. I cannot afford heavy and prolonged losses at this point, or my own retirement will be totally fucked, and/or massively delayed. But then if you play it too safe and take too much out of the markets too soon, you miss the opportunity of more wild growth. And that safe money looses it's purchasing value due to the eroding effect of high inflation. Countries like the USA and UK just printing more money during financial crises has been one of the major causes, but many other factors too.
Due to the closeness of my retirement, if things go to plan, I currently have around 33% of my pension in safe options, which would give me around 18 months of living expenses, if there is a market crash. I also have a non pension 'stocks and shares' account, but that's around 90 - 95% in the markets, in global index funds. I should probably gradually start shifting that allocation to safer options over the next few months to years. As I will with my pension over the coming years, as my retirement draws closer.
The only way to have kept the value of your money inline with inflation, or even beating it over the last few years, has been to invest in globally diversified index funds, or USA only index funds. Obviously, the incredible growth is all down to the big 'magnificent 7' tech companies and their race to produce the best AI. The market prices are shockingly overvalued though in these companies. With investors currently effectively paying 42 dollars for every 1 dollar these companies earn. Most of these 7 giants are actually making losses in their AI ventures. But this huge stock market bubble just keeps going on up, despite all of that, despite Donald Trump and his tariffs, despite the war in the Gulf. These things have only resulted in minor dips for a few weeks, and then the markets just keep going almost insanely upwards, constantly breaking new all time highs.
For every you tube financial markets related content creator predicting severe imminent crashes, that will last 10-15 years, you get others saying the market has at least 2 more years of exceptional growth. Although I think the people who know the most, fully admit that they have no idea what the market is going to do next. or when it's going to do it. Or maybe the most sensible forecast is that there may be some 'correction' at some point, and then growth will be a lot slower and lower for the next chapter, over the next decade or so.
By sheer luck I've done pretty well over the last few years, as has everyone who's been in the markets, in global or USA and even UK index fund trackers. (The UK market has had a major boost over the last couple of years, with many saying it's due to people spooked by the apparent bubble of the USA market, and looking to diversify.) As with everyone, I only wish I'd had more money to invest and grow. But even with my own modest investments I've made big gains. With my own retirement less than 10 years away, I'm having to do a lot of researching and thinking regarding my own plan. I cannot afford heavy and prolonged losses at this point, or my own retirement will be totally fucked, and/or massively delayed. But then if you play it too safe and take too much out of the markets too soon, you miss the opportunity of more wild growth. And that safe money looses it's purchasing value due to the eroding effect of high inflation. Countries like the USA and UK just printing more money during financial crises has been one of the major causes, but many other factors too.
Due to the closeness of my retirement, if things go to plan, I currently have around 33% of my pension in safe options, which would give me around 18 months of living expenses, if there is a market crash. I also have a non pension 'stocks and shares' account, but that's around 90 - 95% in the markets, in global index funds. I should probably gradually start shifting that allocation to safer options over the next few months to years. As I will with my pension over the coming years, as my retirement draws closer.
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It feels like a bubble on paper, but I believe AI is legitamitly making things more efficient and profitable. IMO, it's a matter of if investors will keep pumping the market - and I don't see why a bull would choose to be a bear without a great reason. The only reason now is because it looks scary on paper, looks like we've been here before and have crashed in the past. But AI isn't even close to peaking, IMO.
My biggest pitch again is healthcare. Tech took the lead because AI is easy to implement into computer tech and things like that. For medicine, electrorobitics, for example, I think it hasn't really begun yet.
And the money to be made in healthcare at the consumer level is insane because we're already paying way too much. So of course I'd pay the same amount or less for better care.
My biggest pitch again is healthcare. Tech took the lead because AI is easy to implement into computer tech and things like that. For medicine, electrorobitics, for example, I think it hasn't really begun yet.
And the money to be made in healthcare at the consumer level is insane because we're already paying way too much. So of course I'd pay the same amount or less for better care.
The world order is changing. This is a new Cold War and we're not just going back to normal even when someone else takes office. Trump is thrashing about stirring chaos to try and disrupt Russia and China. Then there's the tariffs, designed to increase U.S. leverage over client states.
Russophobic EU is now no more than a toothless, servile, client state of the U.S. and unless something radically changes, EU growth will be in the shitter for the foreseeable future.
The only markets left to invest in are U.S., because of technology; Canada, because of stability, and EMs because they are providing a lot of the AI hardware and not suicidally servile to the U.S. like the EU.
Bleaney
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Apparently all these data centres that are being built by the big 7, due to their projected need for vast amounts of processing power to run their AI operations, are running into difficulties with connecting the facilities to the national grid. China produces the vital components that would facilitate the connections, but due to tariffs and other restrictions imposed by Trump, the big 7 are having major difficulty acquiring this vital technological equipment. Trump if not shooting himself in the foot, is making things difficult for his countries biggest companies. I hear some of them are now going to chose nuclear power options for these data centres.
But all of this is going to take time.
I dabbled in the EMs when I was new to the game, but the volatility and unpredictability was too much for me. With issues like the Chinese government imposing legislation that severely harmed and hampered it's software / gaming companies, and resulting in a severe and prolonged market downturn. With the Chinese government not being at all market friendly, and being even more unpredictable than Donald Trump himself in many ways, it's all way too risky for me. And if we're then waiting for the likes of India to develop and grow, that could be a 30 year wait, and if I'm still alive by then, I'll be too old to be able to benefit much from that. Unfortunately, I just don't have a long enough time horizon for the EMs.
But the developing countries are great news for the big 7, with the vast populations and markets in these countries, projected to contribute to a significant rise in demand for the products and services the big 7 are producing, as larger swathes of the populaions continue playing catch up in acquiring these technologies and services. It's another factor contributing to the positions of the people projecting further growth for the American tech giants.
But all of this is going to take time.
I dabbled in the EMs when I was new to the game, but the volatility and unpredictability was too much for me. With issues like the Chinese government imposing legislation that severely harmed and hampered it's software / gaming companies, and resulting in a severe and prolonged market downturn. With the Chinese government not being at all market friendly, and being even more unpredictable than Donald Trump himself in many ways, it's all way too risky for me. And if we're then waiting for the likes of India to develop and grow, that could be a 30 year wait, and if I'm still alive by then, I'll be too old to be able to benefit much from that. Unfortunately, I just don't have a long enough time horizon for the EMs.
But the developing countries are great news for the big 7, with the vast populations and markets in these countries, projected to contribute to a significant rise in demand for the products and services the big 7 are producing, as larger swathes of the populaions continue playing catch up in acquiring these technologies and services. It's another factor contributing to the positions of the people projecting further growth for the American tech giants.
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always have to look into what you're getting with EM funds, the one i hold is half in Taiwan and South Korea so it's exposure to AI companies like TSM and Samsung, that are hard to buy individually unless you have access to the foreign markets they trade on