the market: stocks, bonds, options, whatever

[Electrum1]

MDGL

Madrigal Receives European Commission Approval for Rezdiffra™ (resmetirom) for the Treatment of MASH with Moderate to Advanced Liver Fibrosis

Rezdiffra is the first and only medication approved for people living with MASH in the European Union Conditional marketing authorization is based on...

www.globenewswire.com

The EC Decision is valid in all 27 Member States of the EU, as well as in Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway. The timing for access to Rezdiffra in individual countries will depend on multiple factors, including the completion of reimbursement procedures. Madrigal expects to launch Rezdiffra in Europe on a country-by-country basis commencing with Germany in the fourth quarter of 2025

 

[thujone]

MDGL

ugh... that's an eyewatering price per share

tempted, but still seems like a gamble

 

[thujone]

just saw the funniest prediction about what Powell's gonna say tomorrow

"rates will continue until morale improves"

 

[Electrum1]

ugh... that's an eyewatering price per share

tempted, but still seems like a gamble

It is a gamble but a pretty good one. Their revenue has gone from $62M to $212M in the last 4 quarters, and earnings losses are getting smaller much quicker than projected. Now they can start selling in the EU too. Even if the growth rate were to just flatline (it won't) they'll still do about a $1B in revenue over the next 12 months at a current $9B market cap

If it pulls back and/or the whole market does, then it's a pretty good one to buy some and hold for a while

 

[4DQSAR]

@thujone Check the news coming in on the Russian economy.

I'm sure Putin WILL find resources and if I had to guess, it would be a HUGE mineral rights deal with China done under the table.

 

[thujone]

@thujone Check the news coming in on the Russian economy.

???

 

[4DQSAR]

@thujone - it's not a single article, you have to use the pieces to form the jigsaw. But pensioners and other group who cannot easily retaliate are the ones suffering the most,

It's been said many times that whenever a Russian leader considers Russian 'politics', all they really mean is the affluence of the people in just two cities. As long as they say on-side, the rest don't matter.

 

[thujone]

But pensioners and other group who cannot easily retaliate are the ones suffering the most,

not trying to be whataboutist here but this kind of thing is going on in the west right now and nothing is being done about it.

current example -

Australia’s “broken” superannuation and pension systems are condemning a growing number of retirees to financial misery in their sunset years.

Our broken super and pension systems condemn retirees to poverty

Australia’s “broken” superannuation and pension systems are condemning a growing number of retirees to financial misery in their sunset years. More than

australiainstitute.org.au

i'm more worried about home because we've been in everything-bubble limbo for so long post-ZIRP and i think there's a real possibility the next recession turns into a full-on depression

 

[4DQSAR]

@thujone - It's hard to find reliable data but crop failures happen - that the price of importing food has meant big price increases. Likewise with fuel. Yes, there is still a de jure price for gasoline, but since so many refineries have been taken off-line, there are shortages and a huge black market, Now to be fair, the Russian people have seen all this before, but not all at once. But tracking the cost of living is possibly the most useful index. It's also interesting to me that richer Russians DID leave to avoid conscription but a lot have dribbled back. But now there is a second wave and that's something worth considering. Whille strict currency control exists, I suggest that if a people have mastered avoiding such controls, it is the Russians.

I'm in the 'lucky' position of not having to worry too much about pentions but don't forget, the UK has for decades had the lowest pensions of any European nation. So as Toby mentions 'one must live of one's hump' which is OK if one is able to eat enough to HAVE a hump.

 

[thujone]

I wouldn't be surprised if Russia were already buying up food farmed in occupied territory.

Can't really find anything about the state of the economy though, bond yields seem to be improving so I guess there are eager enough buyers...

 

[4DQSAR]

Can't really find anything about the state of the economy though, bond yields seem to be improving so I guess there are eager enough buyers...

Are you aware that in the 90s one overnight billionaire made their money by convincing the Russian public to GIVE blood purportedly to aid other Russians, The twist being it wasn't, it was sold to other natuins. So don't be too surprised if that trick us used again. As someone ponted out, such corruption dfoes far more damage that the $ value suggests. Because not only is the product lost but it's utility is also lost.

I don't know how much grounding you have in post-Soviet Russian history but patronage and graft are two cultural artifacts that survived the change in government. If commanders have to bid to get the blood... even those who detest graft are put in a difficult position. Either pay and hide the bribes.... or don't ket the kit you need,

Someone else noted in the east of Russia where it boarders with China, the RMB is now widely being used to pay for goods and services, China must LOVE that - because it can annex land (Outer Manchuria being 'historically Chinese without the use of it's own armed forces. I'm sure that China has compitent security services who could provide Russian-made material for any independent movement,

I have asked that for a long time. Keeping and using old kit is a Soviet/Russian stratergy shown to work... but you can only do it once. So what's happenng in Russia's far east beyond Muslim nationalists who don't want their lands to be part of Russia (hence some of the terrorism), What forces does Russia have IF a second front breaks out? I honestly do not know.

 

[ions]

FNV guys.

 

[thujone]

Are you aware that in the 90s one overnight billionaire made their money by convincing the Russian public to GIVE blood purportedly to aid other Russians, The twist being it wasn't, it was sold to other natuins. So don't be too surprised if that trick us used again. As someone ponted out, such corruption dfoes far more damage that the $ value suggests. Because not only is the product lost but it's utility is also lost.

I don't know how much grounding you have in post-Soviet Russian history but patronage and graft are two cultural artifacts that survived the change in government. If commanders have to bid to get the blood... even those who detest graft are put in a difficult position. Either pay and hide the bribes.... or don't ket the kit you need,

Someone else noted in the east of Russia where it boarders with China, the RMB is now widely being used to pay for goods and services, China must LOVE that - because it can annex land (Outer Manchuria being 'historically Chinese without the use of it's own armed forces. I'm sure that China has compitent security services who could provide Russian-made material for any independent movement,

I have asked that for a long time. Keeping and using old kit is a Soviet/Russian stratergy shown to work... but you can only do it once. So what's happenng in Russia's far east beyond Muslim nationalists who don't want their lands to be part of Russia (hence some of the terrorism), What forces does Russia have IF a second front breaks out? I honestly do not know.

sorry but i'm not really understanding the context of this comment.

i mostly just follow what happens in the energy market wrt russia, but that is also hard to track because of gray market and shadow fleets.

normally i'm just watching u.s. equities because it's more transparent and that's good for making trade decisions.

watching how NVDA plays out post-earnings...

caught a nice updraft on gold miners

been digging deep on NASDAQ listed equities but everything that looks really good is already peak cycle.

really hoping a bigger correction is on the horizon

 

[4DQSAR]

sorry but i'm not really understanding the context of this comment.

i mostly just follow what happens in the energy market wrt russia, but that is also hard to track because of gray market and shadow fleets.

normally i'm just watching u.s. equities because it's more transparent and that's good for making trade decisions.

That's the point I was attempting to convay. Yes, their is still an official gasoline price, just no gasoline. Likewise there are food prices, yet people lack basic foods.

I suggest looking at Indian petrolium production would yield more answers. People complain that Russia is still exporting coal, oil and gas to India which India is re-exporting. I think the germaine point is simply one question. Is Russia making a profit from exports OR is it exporting at a loss just to get hold of hard currecny.

I think we both know that the de jure and de facto exchange rate for the Rouble have been diverging for some time.

But as you say, hard to analyse. I read local newspapers in Russia and even Russian social media and most do not care about a war - they just want to eat and stay warm.

 

[thujone]

i mean if you look at social media in the west you'll see a lot of fucked up desperate shit

inequality has skyrocketed globally during the ZIRP era, we could already be closed to Russia in that sense

we're hanging on by just our infrastructure spending*, if that goes then we may as well be squatting in tracksuits

* - exaggeration

 

[ions]

Silver is over $40 ounce

 

[4DQSAR]

I think it important to note that while large investors are buying more prescious metals, I don't think any of them are solely investing in such. They are simply undertaking risk management.

As I am not convinced by crypto, I'm not convinced by metals as they are a non-productive asset.

Even as I child I recall farmers saying 'buy land, god isn't making any more of it' and the thing is, as the population increases, crops are going to be grown even on lands previously not considered 'efficient'.

 

[thujone]

As I am not convinced by crypto, I'm not convinced by metals as they are a non-productive asset.

absolutely, it's a poor investment.

that said, i think there is a lot of wisdom in the Talmud strategy, which states:

* 1/3rd in business
* 1/3rd in land
* 1/3rd in gold

There can be a government that seizes your business and your land, and you can't stop it.

But you can always flee, and if you have gold then that's something you can scoop into your pockets as you flee and use it to rebuild your business when you arrive in safer lands.

 

[ions]

experts recommend 25% in gold in a portfolio.
Then stocks crypto other stores of value.
The dollar is just not a wise choice these days.
Yeah have enough physical cash on hand to survive 6 months.
My portfolio is 6% precious. That's only because crypto has outperformed it.
It can be exchanged one to the other which I have. Gold and silver have still performed tho.
It's about triple from the lowest point of my investments. both gold and silver. However the premiums on physical bullion now has increased too.

 

[4DQSAR]

The dollar is just not a wise choice these days.
Yeah have enough physical cash on hand to survive 6 months.

It has been noted that the Euro is often being used in place of the USD when currency is used as the medium of value exchange.

I think someone noted that one of the BEST investments (subject to you having the appropriate licences) is medicines. I don't know how true that is but I know historically pharmacists have spotted that a monopoly is about to exist on a medication and were able to use this knowledge to their benefit.

Isn't that the rule? Only invest in things you understand?