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the market: stocks, bonds, options, whatever

thujone said:
if rates go down, then what? it doesn't guarantee companies will borrow more, and it isn't going to help real estate bubbles. there's just too much fucking debt still in the system that hasn't been drained yet.
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In the case of Russia, I suspect it's intended to keep businesses going for a few more months on the basis that if they struggle along for those few extra months, they make a few more repayments before becoming insolvent.

en.thebell.io

Does Russia really face a wave of bankruptcies

Amid the central bank’s aggressive interest rate hikes last year – taking the key rate to a two-decade high of 21% – the industrial lobby, joined by sympathetic economists, has been increasingly warning of a wave of bankruptcies as over-exposed industries struggle to service their debts. We took...
en.thebell.io en.thebell.io

I read this a few months ago and that and other research is what leads me to suggest that the Russian Central Bank is taking a huge hit to stop the whole economy from imploding. But that Federal Wealth Fund is finite. Expressing it's worth in terms of USD is rather suspect as there may be a de jure exchange rate but the de facto exchange rate is WAY different.

Someone mentioned that in regions boardering China, the peoples of the region are quietly using RMB. If I was Russian, I would be wondering if China may employ soft power to essentially make those peoples WANT to be part of China (it being 'historically Chinese' as Ukraine is 'historically Russian'). I don't think for a moment that Chinese troops would march in but I can well imagine Chinese food and other essentials being 'donated' to those regions on it's boarders.

In the case of the US, well, every nation that has some sort of mid-term elections will always see the government (whatever it's complextion) try to make the economy look as good as possible. It isn't a specifically US issue.
 
MDGL beat earnings again. Will be great when they become profitable and will be able to acquire stuff with cash so they can expand to having multiple products

EPS (USD)
Expected
-3.53
Reported
-1.90
Surprise
+46.21%

Revenue (USD)
Expected
162.17M
Reported
212.80M
Surprise
+31.22%
 
4DQSAR said:
I read this a few months ago and that and other research is what leads me to suggest that the Russian Central Bank is taking a huge hit to stop the whole economy from imploding. But that Federal Wealth Fund is finite. Expressing it's worth in terms of USD is rather suspect as there may be a de jure exchange rate but the de facto exchange rate is WAY different.
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yeah, it's hard to get a read on Russian economy because they're not playing by the same rules as Western economies.

despite "crippling" sanctions, Russia doesn't seem to have much problem finding buyers for energy and manufactured goods.

meanwhile the West barely has a manufacturing sector and is still fawning over this pipe dream of "fourth industrial revolution" pitched by the self-appointed masters of the universe meeting at Davos to blow smoke up each others asses.

i personally know quite a lot of mechanical engineering graduates... in semiconductors! that's why Russia has a viable, functional hypersonic weapon and the West has fuck-all.

it's an uphill battle, trying to onshore manufacturing, when you don't have people with the technical knowledge to build anything advanced.

even in semiconductor manufacturing, TSMC has had to import labour because Americans don't know how to do the job -

www.tomshardware.com

Half of TSMC's Arizona staff are Taiwanese, despite recent controversies

TSMC plans to add more American workers at the Fab 21 site in Arizona.
www.tomshardware.com www.tomshardware.com

i keep thinking about that time Yeltsin visited the supermarket in the states and had his eyes opened about how bad things really were back home. I wonder if there will come a day this century when a Western leader visits Russia and has the same revelation.
 
Electrum1 said:
MDGL beat earnings again. Will be great when they become profitable and will be able to acquire stuff with cash so they can expand to having multiple products
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y u love this company so much? do you work in pharma or something?

my short position paid off immediately. hint - company released Q2 earnings this week

gold and defense suddenly spiked... spidey sense is tingling, might be time to take some profits.
 
I already took profits. I followed NASH development for over 10 years and did great on VKTX plus a few others phase 1 and 2 results, but MDGL won the race and now has the only FDA approved drug for it, and they're doing great with the rollout. I bought it in the 50's and 60's and my position now is all profit so I'm in it for longer term. They recently got patent protection to 2044. They're now on track to become profitable well ahead of projections, which a year ago was projected for like 2027/28. It's not an exciting stock to own but the growth is clearly there now and they'll eventually expand one way or another
 
interesting.. do you follow Martin Shkreli? He has a YT channel, covers pharma a bunch (duh) and he has some good analysis
 
thujone said:
.i personally know quite a lot of mechanical engineering graduates... in semiconductors! that's why Russia has a viable, functional hypersonic weapon and the West has fuck-all.
Click to expand...

The US certainly can produce hypersonic weapons. But an engineer pointed to the fact that the cost is so huge that the only reasonable use-case is delivery of thermonuclear warheads as the weight they can carry is quite small (although 100Kg sounds like a lot to me). If you can produce a dozen traditional systems for the same price, You can saturate defences so it doesn't offer the advantages that many people seem to think and how many ABMs get expended trying to intercept a full salvo?

Even with nuclear weapons, the US has only had to slightly modify it's RVs to make them as hard to intercept as a hypersonic weapon.

Let's also not forget that Russia only has faux hypersonics in operation. Yes, they are hypersonic and yes they have a long(ish) range but for the last minute or more it has to slow down as it re-enters the atmosphere.

So nothing much has changed. With a nuclear exchange, the person who 'goes first' will always be at a huge advantage.
 
I follow him on Twitter. He was right about SAVA. They got busted copying images in their trial data a few years ago so it wasn't a huge surprise but he nailed the timing





I thought it was GLMD (NASH) that he was right about being bad too but I can't find the posts
 
4DQSAR said:
The US certainly can produce hypersonic weapons. But an engineer pointed to the fact that the cost is so huge that the only reasonable use-case...
Click to expand...

eh, I don't really agree but also don't want to get too OT... the point I was trying to make is just that U.S. (West in general) has lost a lot of technical know-how while other superpowers are gaining.

it's just not a good outcome long-term when the future mechanical engineers of the West all want to work in finance or tech, moving numbers on a spreadsheet all day, because it pays double the salary of any manufacturing related job.
 
thujone said:
eh, I don't really agree but also don't want to get too OT... the point I was trying to make is just that U.S. (West in general) has lost a lot of technical know-how while other superpowers are gaining.
Click to expand...

Oh, I don't disagree with you on that one little bit.

I'm not a military expert but I quietly noted that a few years ago the USAF and US Navy agreed to design a single bus for launching the newly improved MiRVs that are now MaRVs. People forget that the US had developed a MaRV for it's Pershing II TRBMs in the 1970s and they did reuse much of the research.

If you look at the original MIRV re-entry vehicles and the new MaRV versions, it's almost comical in the simplicity of the external modification but as long as it defeats all current and projected ABM technologies for the next few decades, it strikes me as efficient rather than flashy.

I suspect not many people are aware that the improvements have been made, but it apparently works and what you don't want is a potential enemy who thinks that you have just overmatched their native technoliges.

Certainly there are good use-cases for hypersonic weapons (hence China building a full-scale model of a US aircraft carrier in the middle of a desert) but unless you really are going to use nuclear weapons on a US vessel, I suggest China is more into showing what it could do rather than what is would do.

Same with that 'Status-6' and '9M730 Burevestnik' systems. If you feel the need to tell the whole world, do you actually need the weapon system to work? Certainly the ArmsControlWonk podcast has a running joke on the latter. The first being that the US designed something similar 70 years ago (and got it to WORK) but decided it was a bad idea.

Sorry for the OK - you know I always value your comments.
 
Canopy ($WEED) is up
:rellyhigh:


wonder why
 
$WEED has already given up half its gains, it was a reaction to Trump talk about federal legalization.

I'm shorting NASDAQ but it has hardly moved today so might just exit soon.

Waiting to react to Jackson Hole, it feels like there could be some pent up momentum that will play out next week depending on how that goes.
 
NVO got Wegovy approved for MASH and MDGL still made a 52w high

Leerink Partners analyst Thomas Smith doesn't expect Wegovy's approval to slow Madrigal's Rezdiffra launch. There are more than 23,000 patients on Rezdiffra within a year of the MASH drug's launch. That's a small portion of what Madrigal estimates to be a 315,000 population.

"While we believe incretins like Wegovy have utility in addressing some aspects of MASH, we expect polypharmacy and combination use leveraging multiple therapeutic classes will be the standard of care in MASH," Smith said in a client note.
Click to expand...
 
His has a stupid name "Mark Cuban Cost Plus Drug Company"

I gotta look at GoodRX now. That Ozempic/Wegovy deal could be pretty good. Their debt isn't real bad either
 
copping UNH as a medium term money maker

Buffett made it drive back up let’s hope for a recovery

Zoom out on its price chart 10 years and ask yourself what’s more likely: was the market wrong about this company for the past decade, or for the past 6 months?

This is an easy win, definitely don’t need an MBA to see that. Only real risk is the ongoing margin compression especially with Medicare advantage. The litigations not a concern and will coincidentally quiet down once Loogie gets his rightful life in prison sentence handed down in a federal court

No reason to sit this one out unless you’re one those [nope. edited.] that only invests in “moral” companies in which case, you do you lol
 
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I'm not really interested in UNH, or Berkshire.

Can't see a clear timeframe for a turnaround and don't want capital tied up waiting.

I'd look at it again if a trend forms but not right now.
 
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