the market: stocks, bonds, options, whatever

[ions]

I wanted to launch Batcoin.
Then BAT rolled out.
one of the worst investments I made.

 

[ions]

Polygon has overall been the most disappointing.

 

[thujone]

yeah land is usually a good investment. there's been a bubble building in my region since 2008 though and it's finally stalling out as people simply cannot afford to buy and sellers can't afford to drop prices.

some people that bought in the panic frenzy of the pandemic are already forced to sell due to rising rates. mortgages have to be renewed here every few years so it's impossible to avoid the cost of rising rates.

so the market is frozen because owners are desperately holding out for the best price and buyers are saying no way because there's simply no way to afford it at current rates.

 

[4DQSAR]

@thujone I'm told there are people who are specialists in 'disasternomics' i.e. people who not only take advantage of the desperate but first ensure they are as desperate as you can make them.

 

[thujone]

makes me think of blockbusting, creating fear to capitalize on it

 

[Voxide]

markets are flyyyyying

Q2 earnings strong

seems like a lot of people are making really dumb calls now, meme stock mania is back

crypto is booming too... there's a lot of big finance money flowing into the ecosystem.

i'm not sure what the end game is for crypto but i'm starting to suspect that wall street wants it so they can control a market without any pesky regulations interfering in their grift.

i have the feeling that crypto collapse could be the next big black swan event. the lack of regulation makes it inevitable that there will be an event that shakes faith in the ecosystem.

strange times...

I been picking up some Solana here and there and staking fractionals of it for the interest. I wouldn’t make it more than like 2% of my whole NW

I’m pretty already set money wise though, this is just fun gambling and an insurance that might pay off. I’d never recommend someone new to this get into crypto. Even a fuckin CD is a better starting point if someone’s really got no idea wtf they’re doing

 

[Voxide]

yeah land is usually a good investment.

It’s always good if you’re in a hot market and you know people that can develop it

Don’t get me wrong im not arguin and I know your ultimate point is that it all depends which is true but it’s mostly beginners here and well; I don’t want someone thinkin that some random run down plot of grass and dirt in the middle of bumfuck WV or Arkansas they found on Zillow for 9 grand is a smart purchase lmfao.

Just hold cash and save your money for something better at that point because good land and real estate got high barriers to entry and unless you go to REIT route and got good relationships with the banks, you frankly gotta already be wealthy for a seat at that table or else you’re not getting taken serious


I wanna eventually get into private equity type stuff. Like alternative, more “hard-money” type investments like helping fund a start-up or house flip or something. Maybe even stuff like art or classic cars. Like I said I’ve done most of the “traditional” avenues and you do tend to get a little bored just routinely buying the market and bullion all the time

 

[thujone]

pheeww, massive revisions down for NFP

white house put BLS on blast, trump fired the commissioner

trump is leaning hard on powell to cut rates

wall street also agitating for rate cuts

this could be the setup for an epic contrarian move

 

[4DQSAR]

pheeww, massive revisions down for NFP

white house put BLS on blast, trump fired the commissioner

trump is leaning hard on powell to cut rates

wall street also agitating for rate cuts

this could be the setup for an epic contrarian move

It's been noted that the same person similarly downgraded the job statistics for 2022-2023 (by 818,000) so accusations of the data being 'rigged' would only suggest rigged by MAGA. As I'm sure it will be from now on.

It's going to be rather hard to maintain the lie unless the next step is some form of 'work camp' so famously used in the past. I wonder how many MAGA supporters would even understand what 'Arbeit macht frie' means.

 

[helpingout]

It's been noted that the same person similarly downgraded the job statistics for 2022-2023 (by 818,000) so accusations of the data being 'rigged' would only suggest rigged by MAGA. As I'm sure it will be from now on.

It's going to be rather hard to maintain the lie unless the next step is some form of 'work camp' so famously used in the past. I wonder how many MAGA supporters would even understand what 'Arbeit macht frie' means.

The ones from Oklahoma. It’s basically the state motto
Labor omnia vincit

 

[Electrum1]

He doesn't know what he's talking about. Self proclaimed expert of everything U.S. while being a foreigner

 

[tryptakid]

He doesn't know what he's talking about. Self proclaimed expert of everything U.S. while being a foreigner

Sometimes it's helpful to have an outsider looking at the whole picture. Hard to see the storm from within it.

 

[kiely]

He doesn't know what he's talking about. Self proclaimed expert of everything U.S. while being a foreigner

Sometimes it's helpful to have an outsider looking at the whole picture. Hard to see the storm from within it.

But…. You still have a chance to redeem yourself. Buy now! It’s going to 1 million in 4 years and then 10 million in 8 years and then infinite!

please don't delete !!

 

[thujone]

It's been noted that the same person similarly downgraded the job statistics for 2022-2023 (by 818,000) so accusations of the data being 'rigged' would only suggest rigged by MAGA. As I'm sure it will be from now on.

Trump has been pretty vocal about Powell being "too late" on rate cuts and NFP are a key economic health indicator that informs Fed policy.

Nobody really trusts inflation stats either but people do assume there's at least some truth to NFP.

Frankly, any private sector job would have fired someone for the numbers being so far off for so long.

Given how the Biden admin operated, it's most likely Erika (ex-commish) was another DEI hire.

This is WHY people voted for Trump!!

people suspect Castro of being Justin's biological father so I'm not sure how much that condom would have helped!

 

[thujone]

Gonna be watching VIX like a hawk tomorrow, if there's gonna be a big correction this is as good a time as any

 

[4DQSAR]

Frankly, any private sector job would have fired someone for the numbers being so far off for so long.

A little as I understand these things, I was under the impression that the initial figure is a prediction based on past perfomance. In the UK we do it monthly and it'a sort of mixed. As I understand it, it's the rate of grown of the job market that was predicted to be 4.2% but turned out to only be 4.1% with most analysis noting that uncertainly in the job market being part of that. Tarrifs and on but any uncertaintly is going to make employer a little more risk adverse.

Now I honestly do no know if the US looks at the financial health of the larger businesses and factor that in but I read that Challenger, Gray & Christmas and laid of something like 62000 people. I don't know if that would be a black swan event or if some calculation is used to estimate such things. I didn't even know what Challenger, Gray & Christmas actually do (did?) but it turns out that are involved in something called 'outplacement' which ironically might suggest that people finding jobs without their help.

But honestly, every time I read more information, the more it seemed to me that each layer is built up of layers of estimates.

I can still (just) remember watching on TV a programme that showed Nigel Lawson actually using a modified version of the MONIAC to calculate the macroeconomics of the UK. For decades none of us had the slightest that our entire nations economics was calculted with a Heath-Robinson arrangement of gears and pulleys. A modified version - the original model used coloured water! Madness...

 

[kiely]

people suspect Castro of being Justin's biological father

Late Entry :



( back to the future, too )

 

[thujone]

A little as I understand these things, I was under the impression that the initial figure is a prediction based on past perfomance. In the UK we do it monthly and it'a sort of mixed. As I understand it, it's the rate of grown of the job market that was predicted to be 4.2% but turned out to only be 4.1% with most analysis noting that uncertainly in the job market being part of that. Tarrifs and on but any uncertaintly is going to make employer a little more risk adverse.

the initial count is estimated, but only because there's lag time in the BLS getting the actual data.

the problem is not revisions but rather that the BLS has been getting it wrong by hundreds of thousands of jobs annually, affecting the monetary policy when the Fed is looking at BLS data to decide what to do.

so Trump has been lambasting Powell for being too late to cut because he knows that it's going to take a while for the economic impacts of a cut to ripple through the economy.

politically motivated or not, Trump is understandably livid about this because there's a high risk of this affecting the outcome of the mid-term elections

 

[4DQSAR]

politically motivated or not, Trump is understandably livid about this because there's a high risk of this affecting the outcome of the mid-term elections

Well sure. It does appear that PaedOTUS thinks that the base-rate should be lower, a key factor in businesses exapanding, I would assume. But I suppose the counter-argument is inflation becomes an issue although I would assume that would take some time to filter through.

In Russia just a couple of weeks ago (and after the two most senior members of the Russian Central Bank make public statments), the base rate was dropped from 20% to 18%, Whatever else I might think of Russia, their bank has come up with some pretty ingenious ways of keeping money in circulation. The 10 rouble coin replaced the note some years ago but they brought the note back as they noted that while notes are spent, coins end up in piggy banks. I mean, that's pretty clever but of course, in Russia Putin doesn't demand things out loud... they just happen. No idea what became of those two bank chiefs beyond them not being bank chiefs any more...

 

[thujone]

Well sure. It does appear that PaedOTUS thinks that the base-rate should be lower, a key factor in businesses exapanding, I would assume. But I suppose the counter-argument is inflation becomes an issue although I would assume that would take some time to filter through.

who knows, there are other factors in the inflation equation too... maybe there's no right move wrt rates and we're going to see inflation either way.

if rates go down, then what? it doesn't guarantee companies will borrow more, and it isn't going to help real estate bubbles. there's just too much fucking debt still in the system that hasn't been drained yet.

i guess we'll see what happens.

anyway...

i shorted today. first time ever shorting, feeling confident but it's still more risk than i'm comfortable with. fingers crossed it works, will know in a few days