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  • LAVA Moderator: Mysterier

the market: stocks, bonds, options, whatever

You guys are playing at a much higher level than I ever intend to. (y)

No advice from me !
 
we need to huddle up here...shits rebounding and some are still cheap

here's what i like that looks to still be a bargain:

XLM
XRP
LINK
ETC
DOT
ALGO
ZEC
ENJ

NANO and HOT if you can find those
 
I rebought, but it's starting to not look so hot to me. The whole thing almost candle for candle follows a classic Wyckoff distribution, which suggests we're in for a substantial period of going lower and consolidating before the next run up. If we don't close the week above $46k, it's not a good sign.
 
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More China fud. Twitter posts are saying China is banning BTC mining. Same playbook as in 2018. I highly doubt they'll do that, particularly since they're the dominant powers in mining, but the price is gonna go down and I am reasonably sure the bear market has begun. In truth, it was a pretty damn long bull run.

I have a little bit of BTC I'm going to learn to trade futures with and try to build up my position as it goes down. Sold most into Tether (wish I had done so when I woke up, but oh well, I'd rather not bleed out all the way down) and hold that somewhere like Voyager that gives you returns for holding. Short the Bitcoin market on the way down to increase my BTC balance. Buy into several projects when we reach the new floor. Try not to FOMO into any sudden spikes because I am quite certain they will be traps designed to get you to buy high and then panic sell when it drops.

I wouldn't buy cryptos right now. I could be wrong, but I think in a few months is going to be the correct entry for new buys. Watch the charts and wait until we reach a floor is my advice. Or at least do some dollar cost averaging and don't buy very much at a time until we see what is going to happen.

Long term I am as certain as it's possible to be that we will continue to have bull runs, and that every bull run will raise the price floor. Long term it's almost certainly a good investment, but right now it's on its way down, short term.

My strategy for crypto investment is getting a rehaul. Time has shown that I am really not good at trading and trying to read the daily movements. It's very difficult to not fall into the traps that are constantly being laid to play on fear and greed to drain your money. Moving forward, I'm going to DCA into positions, try to find good entry points, and stick to long term holds in solid projects with good fundamentals. Take profits in bull runs and pull some out and reinvest some, to try to set up a long term income stream.

Especially as institutional money flows more and more into crypto, we can expect that heavy market manipulation is just a reality. But if you play it smart, you can still make money by understanding how the patterns keep playing out. That's my goal in crypto.
 
HODL works if you haven't only bought in at the peaks of bull runs like has been my pattern so far. I mean even if I hadn't sold anything eventually I'd be green again but selling before the full bleed out will be a better net result. Plus I am largely in alts anyway which lose a lot more of their value than BTC in bear markets.

I think the most surefire way to definitely make money long term is to just buy BTC and hold it for a long time and don't react to the market at all. But it's possible to make far more money than that if you play with alts and sell during the bull run and rebuy in the bear market.

I dunno maybe I should just set it and forget it. I don't have enough skin in the game to make me feel like that's worthwhile though. One day I will, but if you're just playing with a few thousand and trying to build wealth, waiting for BTC rise just doesn't really do it. At least for me. I'd rather set myself up for a 50x in some alts next bull run, and then from there go more conservative.
 
Idk man but here's how im seeing things currently

i think BTC bottomed out...probably a slow upward trend now....and everything else is still cheap, so i think its a great time to buy

i wish China would just completely ban all cryptos tho...they need to get outta here ...fuck china - that's why i dont wanna even do this sometimes because of those fuckin assholes playing a roll

but anyway

i think we're gonna be ok for sure now
 
I think we're going to go sideways and gradually bleed out and hit a new floor, I seriously doubt we're at the bottom yet. Every other bull run took months/a year of slow bleeding to hit a new floor. Unless this bull run isn't over (which is possible), I believe we're looking at somewhere around $20k for a new floor. Generally in past bull runs, we end up around 1/3 of the bull run high before it consolidates and stops bleeding. And the alts lose substantially more than that.

Personally I'm not buying anything for a while. If it becomes clear the bull run is not over, then we'll probably hit new ATHs before it's over, and I'll change my plan (but not just if there is a good day/weekend as I would suspect a bull trap to get people to put more in, and then crash the price again to get people to sell). But if we are, alts are far from as low as they're going to go. And BTC will go lower, too, by a good bit.

It'll be interesting to see what happens. t very well might not behave in the same way as previous cycles, since we're closer to mass adoption now than ever before.
 
Also, FYI, China won't be banning crypto or mining. This is what they do, it's the same playbook every time. They control the majority of the mining operations. It's a market manipulation tactic, same shit they did in 2018. Spread FUD, get everyone to sell, buy back cheap.
 
Pretty much. I will still give some thoughts on projects i think are undervalued currently.

-BTC
-ETH
-aave
-yearn finance
-curve dao toke
-Luna
-SOL
-raydium
-monero
 
It does suck, but there will be another bull run. This is just how crypto is. What goes up must come down... for a while. Bull markets don't last, every time shit goes parabolic, it means it will end up losing a large portion of its value at some point. Just be smart about it, DCA into positions on projects you believe in, consider going largely into Tether for a while to avoid unnecessary bleed, but even if you don't, you'll still make money over the long term as long as you don't hold for months and then sell 6 months from now when you stop believing crypto will survive to another bull run (like I did in 2018/2019).

Unless something fundamentally changes about crypto, I remain extremely bullish long-term. But there are only short periods of time where crypto is get-rich-quick, and that is at the very beginning of new bull runs, where BTC does a 10x and good alts do 50-100x. That's why my goal has been and remains to actually catch the beginning of the next bull run. I'm accumulating positions as much as I can while the price goes lower and lower, and waiting until shit explodes again. It might be a while, if it is, it just gives me more time to invest more before then.

Have you been through previous bull and bear cycles?
 
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Me?

Yes and no - like ive had small amounts of BTC on and off for about 3 years or so? but nothing i paid much attention to and the whole altcoin scene is definitely newer to me which im learning on the fly....as you guys can see here

so....there's not much i can do at this point, because i almost cashed out sometime a few days ago, and i didn't, so at this point, fuck it - im just gonna wait it out even if it takes a year to bounce back...maybe even buy some more, but not now even tho man prices are sweeter today....so that's the thing for me right....like i still wanna buy some more, because i think it won't go lower, but it keeps going lower lol.....so idk lol
 
I only mine when I need the heat, so I'm pretty much done until autumn; but I don't even think about what BTC is doing. It will go up again sooner or later.
 
id say yea im mostly just settled on putting my coat on and keeping warm by the fire for now....but ya never know with me, i change my mind every hour lol
 
That's a solid plan, like I said, it will recover and then some, even if it takes a while. Hold, and keep buying on the way down to increase your positions. That way when the bulls are back out, you get more gains from the cheaper buys.

Since I already sold into tether except for a few positions, I'll be sticking with that. It was for a loss but they have already dipped a good bit more since then which means I have bled less value. Going to definitely buy when prices are as cheap (much cheaper than this) as I think they're gonna get, and DCA in in case I'm wrong. Basically buy small bits every time there is a big dip, once I think we're near the floor. Keep doing so. Keep bringing more new money in every month. Buy up the largest positions I can in that time, in several projects (Theta, Jigstack, Handshake, Bepro, and some others I have yet to look into enough but will likely end up buying). And then take off like a rocket to Mars when the next bull run hits. And take profits regularly next time to lock in gains.

Also, stake my tether and remaining positions. I have heard there are some defi staking pools that can net up to 60% APY. So I might be able to increase my USDT position by 60% before the next bull run just by holding it, which would basically replenish all of my losses and then some.

In 2018/2019, alts bled, and bed, and bled, until many had lost 90-95% of their value at the height of the bull run. So I expect that prices will lower much more than they have so far, which is why I am waiting until I buy anything else.
 
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