I think the el nino is supposed to continue this year... Pacific will be active, Gulf of Mexico remain quiet. Texas hot and dry. According to forecasts I've read.
I feel you on the hurricane thing, Dolly and Ike in '08 were pretty bad. Although both were strong 2's, Ike made a direct hit over east Houston and was a very, very large storm in sq miles. '08 was harder than '05 on the TX coast, cuz Emily and Rita both missed the populated areas. Both of those were strong 3's at landfall. Rita was an unbelievable monster of a storm.. came shortly after Katrina, and sure as hell didn't help NOLA get the water out.. Hit the border between LA and TX and fucked up Houston as bad as a direct cat 1
Ike was like 110 max sustained winds (111 is cat 3) so it was pretty damn close. How the fuck do the hurricane hunter planes get the windspeeds? I can't imagine FLYING into 175 mph winds.
If it changes to a la nina, then we got some problems