You are probably correct and you are 100% correct about the ease in which smokes, compared to currency, could be foged.
However, in the interest of my ever paranoid mind due to a much younger period of stimulant abuse, is it not within the realm of possibility that since there is no distinguishing features from any company any more, and I have read a lot about the brand loyalty of smokers - they usually stay with the brand for life. This means every customer equals a shit-ton of $$$. So, since the tobacco companies cannot get their branding out and be ever-increasing their market share for life, they cut costs. At the beginning, they may just start adding a little water to make the tobacco heavier. Then they may start adding bark for the extra weight. Who cares, so long as the profit keeps going up. Then they move to countries without any (since I'm not knowledgable enough to give a specific example, I'll say *without any minimum wage) and then, the deeper and deeper we go, the less and less they are able to do to continue increasing profits.