kandytime
Bluelighter
The universe is so vast, saying we are the only beings would be near-sighted of us.
Any formula is nonsense until realistic and accurate numbers are plugged in to it.The problem with the Drake equation is that until we find accurate numbers to plug in, we won't have any way to even speculate what the numbers should be. In other words, we need more data, but that doesn't make the formula shit. You have to know what you're trying to calculate before you can have an answer.
After reading Lilys reports on dolphins, I'm not sure we would recognize another intelligent species even if it was right in front of us.
lol
That reminds me of Hitchhikerss Guide to the Galaxy. They built that machine to figure out the secret of the universe. First they realized that they needed to figure out what the question was. Finally the answer was some seemingly meaningless number like 42. Probably had some numerological significance but pretty much doesnt get you any closer to the answer from where you are now.
Supposing that right now there is, 5000 civilizations, capable of space travel at light speed. It would still take millions of years before any of them found us, and thats supposing they were looking, and thats supposing they would want to even talk to us.
^If only that weren't physically impossible...A race capable of interstellar space travel would probably figure out how to go faster than light speed. Once they progress to the point of transdimensional technologies and evolution, which is very likely considering how much of a head start other civilizations can have, long distances become less of an issue.
Rare Earth Factors
From: Rare Earth: Why Complex Life is Uncommon in the Universe, Peter D. Wood & Donald Brownlee, 2000
Astrobiologists, Wood & Brownlee postulate that the following 18 factors prohibit or hinder bacteria from evolving into complex life.
Right distance from star
Habitat for complex life.
Liquid water near surface.
Far enough to avoid tidal lock.
Right planetary mass
Retain atmosphere and ocean.
Enough heat for plate tectonics.
Solid/molten core.
Plate tectonics
CO2-silicate thermostat.
Build up land mass.
Enjance biotic diversity.
Enable magnetic field.
The right tilt
Seasons not too severe.
Atmospheric properties
Maintenance of adequate temperature, composition and pressure for plants and animals.
Right kind of galaxy
Enough heavy elements.
Not small, elliptical, or irregular.
Right mass of star (sun)
Long enough lifetime.
Not too much ultraviolet.
Jupiter-like neighbor
Clear out comets and asteroids.
Not too close, not too far.
Ocean
Not too much.
Not too little.
Giant impacts
Few giant impacts.
No global sterilizing impacts after an initial period.
Biological evolution
Successful evolutionary pathway to complex plants and animals.
Right position in galaxy
Not in center, edge or halo.
Stable planetary orbits
Giant planets do not create chaos.
A Mars
Small neighbor as possible life source to seed earth-like planet, if needed.
Large Moon
Right distance.
Stabilizes tilt.
Right amount of carbon
Enough for life.
Not enough for Runaway greenhouse.
Evolution of oxygen
Invention of photosynthesis.
Not too much or too little.
Evolves at the right time.
Wild Cards
Snowball Earth.
Cambrian explosion.
Inertial interchange event.
Another proof: Aliens don't exist
By Dennis Overbye, New York Times, 11/11/03
Suppose, for example, that the first alien spaceship that sets out for another star takes a million years to arrive there and become established. Then the new colony and the original civilization each send a spaceship on a similar voyage, and so forth, so that a wave of new colonies is formed, doubling the total number every million years.
After 10 million years, there will be 1023 alien settlements, plus the original. After 20 million years, there will be amillion. After 40 million years, if they keep it up, there would be a trillion -- more than there are stars in the galaxy.
By now, after 10 billion years, if there were more than one spacefaring civilization in the galaxy, they would be tripping over one another or one another's artifacts [and raidowaves]. But in fact there seems to be nothing.
The Radiation Factor
New York Times, 12/09/03
Alien beings from outer space would not only have to contend with traveling many light years from home but with radiation: Americans receive an annual average dose of 200 millirems of radiation. A chest x-ray is 8 to 50 mrems. A person in Kerala, India (where there's lots of sun) receives 1300 mrems/year. A person on the space station for 84days receives 17,800 mrems but a one year trip to and from Mars would entail a fatal 80,000 mrems.
I would hardly call the human eye "unimaginably primitive" 8)rachamim said:Why would a civilisation able to traverse a galaxy be so incompetent to leave themselves vulnerable to detection by what must be unimaginably primative technology?