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  • LAVA Moderator: streaM Freak

the market: stocks, bonds, options, whatever

Yeah if people had to stay home for years or whatever the fear was, they'd buy more pets. Sherwin Williams was a good play on people repainting their walls. Social media companies too. Look how much SNAP went up back then and that company sucks
 
thujone said:
are you seriously trading dog food?

that's the randomest shit ever
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Don't discount sound advice and logic.

I tried to tell my Dad to buy palantir in 2023. He was all "What do they make?" and "They make no actual product" and "I trust my 28 year old female local broker that keeps losing me money".

That's like the 10th time I've told him to buy something. He doesn't. It goes to the moon. Then he acts like I'm a genius and tells the entire family how he'd be a billionaire if he listened to me. Then the next time comes around and he never does.

It's a shame I don't partake of the devil's paper. I'd have so much now I'd be burning $100 bills to light my cigarettes just because I could.

You try to help people...why do they even ask for advice in the first place? I swear they talk just to talk sometimes.

The worse part is he thinks I can pull one out of my ass anytime I want. Like I'm not over here making sound decisions based on minimal research.
 
thujone said:
how do you even know about these companies ?
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You have to snoop around. Avoiding the investment rags is rule number one. They're all trying to sell you some bags they're trying to pass off on unwitting small time investors. Bunch of con men. If they're making noise and telling you to buy buy buy then you're already too late.

In the example above I knew palantir would moon because it was easy to see that we were heading into an even more oppressive police state soon, I had known about the company for a long time because it was a spook company and I knew the moment it went public that it would be going up and doing some shady deals with the Government beyond what they'd already been doing for decades. When it dipped in 2023 down to $7 or whatever it was I knew it was an easy buy because it IPOed at $10 a share and I knew there was no way the spooks would ever let it fail. I could have been wrong. But obviously I wasn't. I haven't checked it in a long time but I'm betting it's still over $150 and will only continue to rise as they become the public face of the Government's illegal spying on their own population operations.

You just kind of have to know about them and play the market for what it is: bullshit. It's all bullshit. Even the money is bullshit. Once you understand you're dealing with bullshit money being moved around by bullshit people who are all doing bullshit deals with each other you can get a win here and there.

Was a "former" spook involved with founding the company? Typically, good buy every time. True in the tech sector and any other sector. Since spooks are in every sector. Since spooks have been running the globe since 1940s openly (and long before then).

The other person's dog food example is good because pets are a good buy because people now are using pets as surrogate children. They're lonely and can't "afford" children. So they buy pets. Therefor, they buy dog food. Not just kibble either. High quality name brand food. They'll buy that stuff and eat the lowest quality food themselves. Since they're also addicted to sugar and all manner of garbage they're stuffing in their face everyday.

That's all you need to know: The market is bullshit, it's run by spooks and the average person is dumb as a bag of hammers. Once you start viewing the general public the same way the savy cocaine snorting investors do the wins start coming easy.

This is America. Anyone can get rich. Usually, by conning someone else out of their money or taking out a loan then not paying it back when you piss it all away on bad decisions.

The secret to success is to own nothing and be happy. I don't mean living like a hermit in the woods in a shack. I mean placing all your assets in a trust so you don't have to pay taxes and there is nothing tied to your legal name when the IRS comes snooping around. All the rich people live that way and they live like that for good reason: it works. Why own something when you can have controlling interest in a 501(c) that owns it instead?
 
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thujone said:
how do you even know about these companies ?
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With FRPT, it was the first stock that I followed that uplisted from OTC to Nasdaq, Force Protection, 2007ish, then it ran to 30 before crashing and getting bought out later by some other military contractor. A few years later I started buying those big Freshpet tubes for my dog to mix with dry food that look like big sausage tubes, and wondered if they were a public company, then found they took over that ticker symbol. They didn't even need to change the symbol
 
does it share any leadership with the previous company? maybe they wanted to pivot into MREs but realized there's more money in dog food
 
anybody think the Iran war is being pursued not because of pressure from Israel but in order to drive up the costs of global oil and make American domestic production profitable by driving the price above $80 a barrel. With the whole separate spheres thing coming up if Russia is the energy supplier for Europe, Iran the energy supplier for china, and the United States the energy supplier for presumably the America’s. Then the Iran war and the dtrait of Hormuz closure serves to benefit the United States domestic production. Tracks with the closure of solar and wind farms domestically.
if the goal is to constrict global supply and shift trade into yuan in order to reinforce separate spheres then the Venezuela oil field acquisition tracks as well because it puts production from that field under us control. Gasoline is also used in the production of cocaine. Shifting trade into yuan means Colombia whose drug wealth is in dollars can no longer purchase Iranian oil. Corruption behaves like corruption predictably. Wouldn’t be surprised to see shitty Venezuelan sand crude become the main supplier of gasoline for Colombian cocaine. Wouldn’t be surprised to see American oil companies made profitable by domestic supply being elevated by global prices even though American oil is sold domestically. cements the spheres of influence.

Shorting oil in this scenario doesn’t seem to be a likely play because it’s a restructuring of the global energy dependency scheme. Seems like a new schema is being set where oil is going to have different prices in different parts of the world in different currencies. There could be a currency play here. Shorting the dollar. Long on ruble. Long on yuan. But currency manipulation is a factor with yuan as well as the ongoing evergrsnde real estate crisis. Canadian and American markets have huge numbers of unoccupied real estate owned by Chinese companies. If this oil move doesn’t prop their economy up and they begin selling off foreign assets then it seems the play would be to invest in companies poised to acquire real estate in the Canadian and American markets.

Companies like black rock come to mind
Black stone
Brookfield
Carlyle
KKR
Apollo

Addd in the coming ai lower class worker replacement, educated worker replacement, and the sell off of family real estate assets to weather that crisis coupled with the geopolitical climate aforementioned, and I think these companies are absolutely a 5-10 year play. Though the time to buy is going to be during the economic decline of the next year to five years. Look for the bottom and the cup. Don’t fall prey to rallies built around the tweets of leaders. Wait for the actual downturn and be prepared to invest at that point.
 
I actually follow a small Canadian REIT that owns trailer parks mostly in the U.S. Midwest. MHCUF. Flagship Real Estate Investment Trust. I'm skeptical of U.S. real estate right now tho, but they pay a decent dividend
 
Feel like the Iran stuff mostly is over in a month, unless congress votes to approve it after the 60 days it's allowed to happen before they need to vote to approve it. Who knows tho
 
I think china being poised as the advantaged party if oil pricing shifts to yuan is a major tell on investment opportunity. I wouldn’t bet on specifically the yuan tho. I’d probably put money in a blue chip Chinese stock like the company that makes the liquor Chinese people like to celebrate with.
« The stock ticker for Chinese liquor giant Kweichow Moutai is
600519, listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SS). «


To support this theory

While every American company is currently in the red.

Moutai is up 2.4 percent.

If china is poised to be the beneficiary of this conflict, then it tracks to invest in the company with which china celebrates its success.

Multiple ways to profit off this crisis.

I’d say the highest margin is shorting the dollar while it’s still strong. But that assumes the failure of the us wconomy. But our involvement in Vietnam and the inflation crisis of that era and the oil crisis at that time presents a relatively consistent schema that suggests it might be the best play.

That said I never would short the US dollar. Spite my face to celebrate my foot is a headless man’s game.

But yeah having stock in that Chinese company would essentially be a us short because you could sell as needed in response to inflation of the US dollar. Or at least have a foreign asset that would retain value against the dollar.
 
helpingout said:
anybody think the Iran war is being pursued not because of pressure from Israel but in order to drive up the costs of global oil and make American domestic production profitable by driving the price above $80 a barrel.
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It's not an either/or situation. It can be both. Domestic production is never going to return to pre-1960s levels in the west. Ever.

I operate under the assumption that China, Russia, Israel, USA and all the rest have been in cahoots for a long time and these regular wars we've seen since the end of WW2 have just been used to throw regular people into the meat grinder and siphon off any wealth the middle class stacked up. We've seen all real assets and wealth filtering up to the top for decades while the 99% are left to suffer. Any "gains" you might make are tied directly to USD which we all know is useless fun money that gets devalued harder with each passing year.

There will be no true crash. It will be a controlled crash. At some point we reach a point where they swap the reserve currency from the USD to a digital currency where all transactions can be tracked in real time by the world bank. All these countries claimed to be at war with each other have been coming to sit together at the same table for decades, signing agreements, pushing agendas, implementing agendas and following the same plan. Like right now where we see this con where they're saying "We must invest in AI because the Chinese will beat us". They tell the Chinese people the same thing. In reality both Governments are working together in lock step and want to use the technology to further enslave and control their populations.

The only real purpose of war is population control. It's one of the many ways they keep the birth rates down. Anyone that escaped planned parenthood gets tossed into the meat grinder that happens every 10-20 years. The only real purpose of going to war with Iran or North Korea is to bring the last of the countries that weren't already in the fold into the fold.

I'm also at the point where I no longer believe oil is a finite or scarce resource. I feel like if it was they would have never moved us over off steam power way back when. Whatever it is it certainly isn't dinosaur juice. I think the Earth makes new oil all of the time (but we are probably harming things by extracting so much of it).

The AI thing is just a scam as well. Insofar that it isn't really being used to replace low end jobs totally. The real purpose was always the security state. The jobs are mostly being taken by cheap imported labor and offshore labor working for slave wages. Most of the job listings haven't been real in a long time. Something like 90% of them that get listed were never for a position they intended to fill with domestic labor in the first place. We're living through a slow genocide at the moment. Once they've finished killing off us in the west they'll move on to doing the same thing to the Indians, Chinese, and Africans. They bought off the generations that came before Gen-X (boomers and above) in the west. They're waiting 10-20 years for most of them to die. The generations after them haven't been breeding at replacement rates for a long time now. Once they've died off they'll move on to doing the same thing to the people they've imported to replace us and start killing them off in their native countries. A 90%+ population reduction has been the game plan for a long long time now.
 
Electrum1 said:
U.S. domestic production is the highest it's ever been. It's over twice the amount of any time in the 1950's, and almost 3x higher than at any time before the end of WW2

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That's a resource we're exporting. Coal production is high to. But the vast majority of it is for export. It isn't going to domestic power production or our own factories.

Stats are also misleading. There is no way the unemployment rate is as low as they've been claiming for my entire adult life. I've moved all over the country and the vast majority of people have been out of work for years. But if you believe the stats they release they'll claim it's something like only 5-19% of the working age adults that aren't holding a job.

We used to produce goods for export. That's what I was talking about. We haven't been producing goods for export since the early 1990s. We used to extract natural resources to mostly use them domestically. We haven't done that for a long time. We've been exporting most of them for decades (mostly to China). All the while we've become more and more reliant on importing both natural resources and especially goods.

The vast majority of towns in America that used to have industry like textiles for example have not produced anything in over 30 years. The local work force has been without jobs for over 3 decades. Other than the 20-30% of them that were lucky enough to land a slave wage job in the "service industry" working for one of the big box stores. Who showed up around the same time they saw their local industry get shipped overseas and ran out all the local small businesses. Since 2020 the few small businesses that weathered that storm closed up shop as well. Entire towns like this have seen their local population of 18-40 year olds flee. Now they're comprised of people that have already retired (or should have retired but can't) and people lucky enough to work remote jobs who have moved in to take advantage of cheaper land/rent/cost of living prices which has priced the local young adults that did stay out of their own towns.

Trump's big talk is just big talk as its been for the past 10 years. Local industry is not coming back. The few new things they've opened up are mostly being run by robots and a very small staff of seasonal temp. workers who are again working a slave wage. They do not make enough to feed themselves much less feed a family and they aren't working more than 6-8 months out of the year if they're lucky (typically, it's closer to 3-4 months).

The only industry that has seen real growth in America since the 1990s is the tech sector. Which is downsizing faster than any other sector, laying off existing workers en mass and only hiring imported cheap labor for the few real entry level positions that aren't fake job listings. The ones we import on the Visas are the lucky ones. Many are working overseas for $5 or less a day working shifts that are illegal in America (sleeping under their desks and staying at work 24/6). The tech sector itself will see a huge downsizing over the course of the next 10 years as the larger companies merge and lay off their workforces. The days of making $100k+ a year for writing javascript templates are over. Most people graduating with a CS/IT degree will not find gainful employment.

We aren't even building cars in America anymore. At least not American cars. A new GM or Ford is assembled in Mexico from parts sourced mostly from Japan (who themselves outsource to China). A new Japanese car is assembled in America in the most poverty stricken areas of the nation from parts sourced from America (who themselves outsource to China).

This is not sustainable and everyone knows it and has known it for a long time. They're all just hoping someone else is holding the bags when it comes tumbling down.
 
It's not a misleading stat. You said domestic production, and that link to the data is for domestic production

We actually are keeping more from our production in the last year

Exports declined last year despite a 3% increase in crude oil production to a record 13.6 million b/d. Whereas crude oil exports have generally increased with domestic production in recent years, in 2025, more crude oil production went to U.S. stock builds, particularly the Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR), and to domestic refineries
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