the market: stocks, bonds, options, whatever

[thujone]

so... short again? it was rising yesterday with bitcoin but i don't really trust this rally

 

[Bleaney]

yeah it's a very uncertain time in the economies

what kind of assets are you planning to rebalance to?

to be clear, when i advocate for 100% equities i'm not saying 100% in NASDAQ or 100% in S&P500, i just mean holding common stock but also in steady businesses that don't fluctuate much and pay healthy dividends.

even though my retirement funds are in equities, a lot of it is in a dividend fund that has fluctuated <=1% through pandemic and war... if THAT starts falling then it seems reasonable to assume the world is in such a state that safer fiat-denominated assets could also be at risk.

then there's preferred shares... those are a good middle-ground between the safety of fixed income and the growth of common stock.

I've opted for a UK money market fund for the time being, and will park 25% or so in there until I get any better ideas, or until the AI bubble bursts.

It's the safest option available within my platform, a positive return appears to be virtually guaranteed, even if it's only 4% - 5%. On top of the 20% tax free allowance, that's still 24%-25%.

Then If I need to withdraw 25% of my pension tax free from age 55, or 57, It'll be there waiting, and unaffected by any crash. Those ages are very very close for me now.

I have just had the all clear from some health scares that could have been colon cancer and lung cancer. The lung spot turned out to be benign and the colon polyp has been 100% successfully removed whilst it was still pre-cancerous. It would have turned into colon cancer in a few years, if it had not been incidentally picked up by a scan for something else, and subsequently removed 100% successfully. So I was kind of planning for the worst case scenario with my recent moves. I think they were good and necessary moves to make in any case.

If or when the bubble does burst, and there's drops of 20% or more, I'll probably DCA a fair bit of that 25% back into some of the most globally diversified funds while they are effectively on sale.

Steady dividend stocks also sound like a good option, and I'll look into those further.

 

[thujone]

congrats on being healthy

i heard UK is increasing dividend tax, or is that just on small business?

sounds like more inflation is on the way

the wage-price spiral is really biting

in the u.s., mcdonalds, panera bread and chipotle have been hurting

it's hard to stay a low budget option when the clerks get paid more than teh customers...

 

[Electrum1]

MDGL over 80 RSI on the weekly chart... May have to do what I don't want to and sell some hoping I can buy it back later for less. It's enough of my portfolio now that I don't want to hold it all through a pullback that seems incredibly likely to happen soon

 

[Bleaney]

congrats on being healthy

Thanks!

i heard UK is increasing dividend tax, or is that just on small business?

Yeah its definitely for business owners who pay themselves that way but also for investors. I think the dividend tax has gone up from 8% to 10% or something very similar.

What I'm not clear on, is whether there is an allowance before you get to that threshold.

There is with most other forms of saving and investing, so I presume there is with these too.

But as I've never invested in anything that pays out much dividends (I've mostly gone for the accumulation options) I've never looked into it in any depth.......

I was in San Fransisco a few years ago and saw that the Mc Ds staff were getting $15 or so at that time, which was more than I was on. (I don't work in the fast food industry.) With inflation they are probably on $20 per hour by now!?

It's good that minimum wage staff are looked after so well, but if there's no differential for more skilled, knowledge based, senior, or demanding jobs, things could start to feel a bit fucked up.

 

[Bleaney]

Different topic- Warren Buffett buying heavily into Google just a day or 2 ago, and everyone asking "Why is he getting into a tech company now of all times!????"

And then the announcement the next day that Google will be making it's own chips to rival NVIDIA. And Google's shares are shooting up, while NVIDIA's are fallling.

Is Buffett getting wind of vital information ahead of it's official release, and is that not illegal?

We call that "insider trading" in the UK, and it most definitely is illegal over here. But I cant believe that Buffett would do anything illegal, but it's also very hard to believe that that could have just been pure luck!

 

[thujone]

MDGL over 80 RSI on the weekly chart...

eh, 80 is not that high... but yeah it looks like the nearest support level is pretty far... from what little i know about pharma, it's not unusual to see big busts after big booms. i'd probably take some profit and buy some puts a year out

But as I've never invested in anything that pays out much dividends (I've mostly gone for the accumulation options) I've never looked into it in any depth.......

yeah it all depends on how tax rules treat the dividends, might be worth putting them in an ISA unless you have more growth happening there, in which case the tax savings might not make up for it... but if you're looking at retirement funding then a tax-free flow of dividends could cover your day to day costs reliably without affecting income tax and possibly pension benefits.

in canada we have a retirement account and a tax-free account and the retirement account offers tax breaks in the year it's contributed to but at retirement the money coming out of it is all added to income and that affects how much people get in government payments.

meanwhile a tax-free account can in theory perpetually generate thousands a month in dividend income without counting as income so it goes much further.

I was in San Fransisco a few years ago and saw that the Mc Ds staff were getting $15 or so at that time, which was more than I was on. (I don't work in the fast food industry.) With inflation they are probably on $20 per hour by now!?

It's good that minimum wage staff are looked after so well, but if there's no differential for more skilled, knowledge based, senior, or demanding jobs, things could start to feel a bit fucked up.

exactly. high minimum wage sounds like a good idea while wages are growing but when working professionals have to start tightening belts that's when the pain comes.

what good is a high minimum wage when it kills off the businesses that have to fund it?

Different topic- Warren Buffett buying heavily into Google just a day or 2 ago, and everyone asking "Why is he getting into a tech company now of all times!????"

And then the announcement the next day that Google will be making it's own chips to rival NVIDIA. And Google's shares are shooting up, while NVIDIA's are fallling.

Is Buffett getting wind of vital information ahead of it's official release, and is that not illegal?

We call that "insider trading" in the UK, and it most definitely is illegal over here. But I cant believe that Buffett would do anything illegal, but it's also very hard to believe that that could have just been pure luck!

it's not really news, Google has been making TPUs for a while but they've been viewed as not being performant enough to matter, in training new AI models, where nVidia is still king.

they only matter now because the need for training has started to plateau and now there's growing need for more inference and TPUs can do inference well enough for a lower cost per token than GPUs.

this shift is also playing out in the consumer market where more people are starting to do inference on APU/mobile systems because they're good enough and more practical than spending thousands to build a special inference system with GPUs.

 

[Electrum1]

eh, 80 is not that high... but yeah it looks like the nearest support level is pretty far... from what little i know about pharma, it's not unusual to see big busts after big booms. i'd probably take some profit and buy some puts a year out

I'd probably be willing to if it wasn't a biotech with the only approved drug for its indication, and a highly successful drug rollout with great revenue growth

I sold a biotech when it was overbought around 80rsi, and it got bought out two days later for nearly an 80% premium, lol. I definitely don't want to be short at all, just want to time a sell of some and rebuy lower. It'll be profitable in a year or two and probably get FDA approval for cirrhosis in 2027. Maybe I'm dumb for trying to scalp it and should just hold since that has paid off

A positive outcome from this study is expected to support a potential label expansion to treat the compensated MASH cirrhosis population and also help confirm the clinical benefit needed for the full approval of the noncirrhotic indication. The trial completion is estimated for January 2027

 

[Electrum1]

Crazy that silver actually made a new high again. I should short it Monday if it starts the week out higher but I'm probably just going to give up since I barely got out of it okay last time

 

[ions]

HODL is my strategy.
I'm still holding on to some cryptos that are only worth a few dollars.

 

[Electrum1]

I just want a quick gain. Can't hold a 2x etf short for long because of decay so you'll lose anyway if you hold it too long even if you end up correct. I got out at 12.30 with a gain so I can rebuy without it being taxed as a wash trade, and ZSL is at 9.84 now, so if silver opens next week with a green candle I figure I can buy ZSL at ~9.50 and probably be up about 5% at some point during the week, but who knows

 

[ions]

Yeah it's like winning a bet when you get a short gain. It's probably very stressful tho. Steady eddies bet to break even.

 

[Electrum1]

You know maybe the first shares I bought would still count as a wash trade since I bought them at like 12.49 I think, and then doubled down at 11.15, so only half of my shares were in the green when I sold at 12.30. Guess I gotta figure that out before I decide to buy again within 30 days of selling

 

[thujone]

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/28/cme-halts-fx-commodities-futures-trading-after-data-center-issue.html

"It's inconvenient, but it's not unprecedented, although this kind of event may materially alter market structure or price discovery," he said. "Current price action already reflects markets being affected: the markets have been relatively flat and trading in a very tight range since 26 November, Wednesday, around ~10 PM EST. And until the issue is resolved, I would expect that behaviour and price action to continue."

You know maybe the first shares I bought would still count as a wash trade since I bought them at like 12.49 I think, and then doubled down at 11.15, so only half of my shares were in the green when I sold at 12.30. Guess I gotta figure that out before I decide to buy again within 30 days of selling

afaik you can wash trade as long as you're not claiming the affected loss at tax time

 

[Electrum1]

Yeah but I do want to claim it, and it adds to my total gain if I rebuy within 30 days, and stops the first loss from counting towards my total P/L

If I buy $10k and sell it for $9k, then within 30 days I buy back $9k, then sell it for $10k, I owe $250 in capital gains on $1k gain even tho I didn't actually gain anything in the end, because buying it back within 30 days made my first loss not able to be claimed

Robinhood Trader May Face $800,000 Tax Bill

A Robinhood newbie is facing a potential tax bill of $800,000 despite only making $45,000 in net trading profits. The case should serve as a loud warning for the new crop of do-it-yourself investors.

www.forbes.com

How a Robinhood newb got an $800k tax bill on $45k profit

The wash sale rule prevents you from claiming losses on certain sales. And it can mean trouble if you don’t know about it.

thehustle.co

 

[Electrum1]

They should eliminate the wash trade rule for leveraged ETF's. They're pretty much just gambling vehicles compared to stocks of companies

 

[thujone]

If I buy $10k and sell it for $9k, then within 30 days I buy back $9k, then sell it for $10k, I owe $250 in capital gains on $1k gain even tho I didn't actually gain anything in the end, because buying it back within 30 days made my first loss not able to be claimed

if that's your strategy then why even sell it at $9k?

 

[Electrum1]

Because it's a trade that went wrong and I think it'll go lower. I didn't mean $10k or $9k a share, I meant $10k and $9k of shares

If I buy $10k of shares at $10 and sell at $9 a share, I should be able to buy back $9k in shares in a leveraged etf within 30 days if I can get them for $7 a share without suffering a tax penalty

I understand the rule applying to stocks of actual companies, but leveraged etfs are just trading vehicles and not being able to play the same etf for 30 days if you took a loss on a trade is what I don't like

 

[Electrum1]

The leveraged bear etfs are the worst too because they have more decay, so you can't just hold for months until you recoup your loss. Silver at 50 and 2x bear etf it as $10, six months later silver at 50 and the etf is at $6. Gotta get out of those bear etfs quickly when it goes wrong compared to stocks or even 1x etfs, but you can't buy back in for a trade within 30 days or you lose your loss, which seems wrong for something that is just a trading vehicle and not an investment like an actual companies stock

 

[thujone]

ah here we go

Charles Schwab

If you sell a security at a loss and buy the same or a substantially identical security within 30 calendar days before or after the sale, you won't be able to take a loss for that security on your current-year tax return. However, there are some compensations: You will be able to add the amount of the loss back onto the cost basis of the replacement security