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  • LAVA Moderator: streaM Freak

the market: stocks, bonds, options, whatever

streaM Freak said:
Sounds very healthy outlook for yourself.

I don't know the gains you made and don't really care to, but if you have grown your portfolio even by 10% year over year average, personally I'd think that's enough reason to celebrate and enjoy the new financial cushion you have, especially at a time like this, and sort of take a step back.
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Yes exactly. I don't have to worry about this damn AI bubble any more. It's no longer potentially going to be a huge problem for me.

Regarding the other funds, as you say I can just step back more now, with no need to watch them daily.

Even though many global funds consist of 60% USA, they are a lot more diversified.

I feel the S&P 500 is too risky right now, as a 10-15 year crash would screw up my retirement big time.
 
No idea honestly. I've been trying to distance myself from the market this month. Just more depressing information that I don't need to be focusing on.
 
Not saying the tariff rebate is the upsde. But that the alternative currencies are most likely going to skyrocket. Unless the government makes ownership illegal.
 
MDGL closed at an all-time high. Great growth story while treating a disease that increases during bad times. A recession resistant stock
 
Do you guys get good investing strategies from CNBC? Or where are your leads coming from.
I got into investing with Stansberry research. subscribed to their newsletter for a year but stopped because they were mostly into stock recommendations and I wasn't buying stocks at the time. I would wonder what they are recommending these days. They taught me a lot of gold and silver and stuffs.
 
I like CNBC because they do lots of tech coverage, for more long-term investing I've gotten some good DDs from Motley Fool, and for mining and energy, FinancialPost has good coverage.

I'm quite pissed that I got fucked on META and had to exit a great GOOG position to free up some cash.

Was thinking of playing NVDA earnings with hedge but with the week starting off so bearish I chased MSTR short instead... 25% in 24h, I can live with it

mstrscalp.jpg


NVDA moved up sharply postmarket so tomorrow is a tough call, AMD has a good setup though so going to be watching for a sympathy rally breakout over $235. I think short term there's good chance of upside in semiconductors as this is where the AI capex is going.
 
welllll... that week ended with more dumping

got stopped out trying to go long around a support level that is at risk of failing

there could be another week of dumping to come.

i'm watching weekend action in Bitcoin and it doesn't look promising so far

been seeing a lot of buying in pre and post market overpowered by high volume selling during market hours

looking at the 52w chart for guidance on where the selling might be exhausted and then it's time to go long
 
thujone said:
welllll... that week ended with more dumping

got stopped out trying to go long around a support level that is at risk of failing

there could be another week of dumping to come.

i'm watching weekend action in Bitcoin and it doesn't look promising so far

been seeing a lot of buying in pre and post market overpowered by high volume selling during market hours

looking at the 52w chart for guidance on where the selling might be exhausted and then it's time to go long
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Yep. I guess I'm just one of millions thinking this is a good time to sell and re-balance things.

It seems to me that the over-simplified mantras like "time in the market, not timing the market" miss a hell of a lot of nuances and complicated factors that often make that mantra bad advice, and it gets mindlessly parroted so many times in some online groups that it drives me fucking mad. It like an echo chamber in some of these groups. There wont be a single thread where that doesn't get said at least once. :mad:

Imo that mantra only applies if you are investing in index funds, and have decades left in your time horizon, and already have your allocations correct.

It most certainly does not apply if you are approaching retirement and did not have your allocations correct. I'm thankful to have taken the opportunity to take some handsome profits and sort that out. It has bought me great peace of mind.

During a stay in hospital last week, I had the opportunity to listen to almost half of the excellent book by Howard Marks "The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor: Uncommon Sense for Thoughtful Investors"

Just by luck or chance, or natural inclination, I already had many of the same intuitions as the author. It's very reassuring to get affirmation of some of those.

As well as recommending several other books for further reading, this book confirmed my suspicion that investing should never be oversimplified, especially not to the level of massively overused and oversimplified mantras such as "time in the market, not timing the market." :roll eyes:

It's bollocks imo. Why not sell when things are high, and there are profits that can be locked in, and there seems to be a very real prospect of a bubble bursting any time soon. Especially in my circumstances, I firmly believe it was the right thing to do. I hope to be able to listen to the remainder of that book soon. Being in hospital is such a good opportunity to listen to such things, when other options to occupy your mind and attention are a lot more limited than when you are at home. When I usually default to easier and less demanding ways of filling my time.
 
Bleaney said:
It seems to me that the over-simplified mantras like "time in the market, not timing the market" miss a hell of a lot of nuances and complicated factors that often make that mantra bad advice, and it gets mindlessly parroted so many times in some online groups that it drives me fucking mad. It like an echo chamber in some of these groups. There wont be a single thread where that doesn't get said at least once. :mad:
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FWIW, the data does support the "time in the market" hypothesis -

Avoiding the market’s downs may mean missing out on the ups as well. Seventy-eight percent of the stock market’s best days have occurred during a bear market or during the first two months of a bull market. If you missed the market’s 10 best days over the past 30 years, your returns would have been cut in half. And missing the best 30 days would have reduced your returns by an astonishing 83%.
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www.hartfordfunds.com

Timing the Market Is Impossible

In times of volatility, timing the market may seem tempting. But doing so could cost you.
www.hartfordfunds.com www.hartfordfunds.com

So... taking some profits was good now because we know there was a dip after but what if the market had shot up another 10% and set a new price floor instead? Gotta have a plan for being wrong too
 
I needed to re-allocate (Full stop. Not sure if you guys say 'period' in Canada or not.)

Although some people do, especially in their younger years, it generally seems to be regarded as somewhat crazy to have 100% of your pension in equities when you reach your last decade or so of work, or even later.

Over time, the 'time in the market' hypothesis does make you more money than trying to time the market. But what I was trying to say, was that with my much shorter time horizon, I'd have far less time to recover from a major crash, so the last couple of weeks has been the perfect opportunity to work towards a 70/30 split, which is generally considered appropriate for someone of my age, and closeness to retirement. I was trying to say that mantra does not always apply for every person in every scenario.

My sell off and re-allocation will give me some room for maneuver if there is a crash, being able to buy more during the dip, and it's certainly removed a lot of worry and anxiety.

For all the advice you'll see about taking emotion out of the equation, Howard Marks confirmed that a person is right to worry and be anxious about potentially loosing a lot of money. Risk is a huge factor, and we need to plan for it. Worry and anxiety means it's a signal to take action. But it doesn't mean to panic and sell everything every time the market drops 5%. I could be right, I could be wrong, but I have a feeling that this time is different. (And so does every article or video I've watched over recent months. And all the selling going on at the moment, which you mentioned a couple of posts ago.)

It could be imminent, it could be 2 years away, but that bubble is going to pop.
 
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yeah it's a very uncertain time in the economies

what kind of assets are you planning to rebalance to?

to be clear, when i advocate for 100% equities i'm not saying 100% in NASDAQ or 100% in S&P500, i just mean holding common stock but also in steady businesses that don't fluctuate much and pay healthy dividends.

even though my retirement funds are in equities, a lot of it is in a dividend fund that has fluctuated <=1% through pandemic and war... if THAT starts falling then it seems reasonable to assume the world is in such a state that safer fiat-denominated assets could also be at risk.

then there's preferred shares... those are a good middle-ground between the safety of fixed income and the growth of common stock.
 
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