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the market: stocks, bonds, options, whatever

Almost all of my money's in cash equivalents right now. Specifically -- and this may be only a Canadian thing -- mutual funds which invest in large deposit accounts at "Big Six" Canadian banks and give returns close to the overnight rate. This is largely due to the fact that I'm looking at houses and therefore don't want any duration on my books, but in addition, it's hard to justify bonds or stocks on a risk/reward basis right now. The yield curve is hugely inverted and stocks aren't so far from all-time highs.

(Also, I got reamed on my last two big speculative trades, so I'm taking a break from trying to be clever with options.)
 
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I keep it simple stupid after going down the rabbit hole. BTC only.

The way our government raises interests rates to cover their ass from overprinting has made me lose faith in the fed. Not a healthy or sustainable way to do business.

Assets are sky high (stocks and housing mainly) but none of these companies are showing real growth to justify increased prices.

Don't worry, us taxpayers will front the bill when Tesla fails (already subsidized by so-called clean energy credits)
 
S.J.B. said:
Almost all of my money's in cash equivalents right now. Specifically -- and this may be only a Canadian thing -- mutual funds which invest in large deposit accounts at "Big Six" Canadian banks and give returns close to the overnight rate. This is largely due to the fact that I'm looking at houses and therefore don't want any duration on my books, but in addition, it's hard to justify bonds or stocks on a risk/reward basis right now. The yield curve is hugely inverted and stocks aren't so far from all-time highs.

(Also, I got reamed on my last too big speculative trades, so I'm taking a break from trying to be clever with options.)
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I'm mostly cash too. Some small holdings and a decent size short on NVDA (1.25x etf NVDS, not options) because all this AI excitement feels just like the 3D printer bubble
 
@ions remember yesterday when I mentioned the 16% dividend on IEP?

It's down 17% today because a short seller attacked it as overvaluing it's assets so now it's dividend is over 19%

Maybe they're correct and it's still not a good buy
 
yeah. here's how I feel about stocks. I would rather seek investors for starting up business. Like a distillery. And profit off the sales of a good or service.
Other profitable startups can be risky, as is the nature. But I feel confident I'd turn a profit of some sort. However selling MDMA and LSD is still illegal, but stamp it with my face and make it legal to do. Then there's the solar energy research. Bar/hotel to house bluelighters who need work. It could be shortsided.
Silver mining or gold mining stocks interest me. But I don't have that kind of money to throw at gold unless it bullion and even then the premiums are high and gold and silver companies, maybe 10% yield a good return when the market crashes here any minute. @Electrum1
 
ions said:
yeah. here's how I feel about stocks. I would rather seek investors for starting up business. Like a distillery. And profit off the sales of a good or service.
Other profitable startups can be risky, as is the nature. But I feel confident I'd turn a profit of some sort. However selling MDMA and LSD is still illegal, but stamp it with my face and make it legal to do. Then there's the solar energy research. Bar/hotel to house bluelighters who need work. It could be shortsided.
Silver mining or gold mining stocks interest me. But I don't have that kind of money to throw at gold unless it bullion and even then the premiums are high and gold and silver companies, maybe 10% yield a good return when the market crashes here any minute. @Electrum1
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I've owned silver and gold for five years and you are correct. Good to have but don't expect to make money unless there's high fear of asset failure.

There are much better stores of money but diversity is key even though I don't follow that. Plus it's nice to have the shiny rocks.
 
I look at metals as an insurance policy that also has the potential to increase/decrease in price. Insurance policies have premiums, so I feel I'm paying a premium on a policy by owning metals
 
Electrum1 said:
I look at metals as an insurance policy that also has the potential to increase/decrease in price. Insurance policies have premiums, so I feel I'm paying a premium on a policy by owning metals
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I also forgot to mention to buy my books and music. It’s profitable. But haven’t tapped into the market yet.
 
Electrum1 said:
I'm mostly cash too. Some small holdings and a decent size short on NVDA (1.25x etf NVDS, not options) because all this AI excitement feels just like the 3D printer bubble
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i'm taking the other side of this trade, going all in on semiconductors
 
Cheshire_Kat said:
NVDA AMD and Intel are one thing but TSMC is another. The TSMC is a supplier for all three.
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i'm into all for diversification. sector plays are my usual investment strategy but this time i'm allocating a bit more capital as i work in the industry and feel like the trajectory is healthy.

AI is like the turbo on the engine here, even if a recession happens i think demand will still be strong for it - possibly even stronger as businesses turn to AI as a way to cut costs.
 
thujone said:
AI is like the turbo on the engine here, even if a recession happens i think demand will still be strong for it - possibly even stronger as businesses turn to AI as a way to cut costs.
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Hmm :Sherlock:

Maybe I won't double down on NVDA if it keeps going up. Crazy valuation tho, but maybe there is mega growth coming
 
nVidia is strong out of the gate but going forward I think AMD will start to steal marketshare in the AI space as the software approaches parity with nVidia's CUDA, which is the main reason nVidia has dominated AI til now. Intel is also emerging as a player so there's a strong competitive environment developing.
 
I was thinking puts on semis but I do not feel confident taking either side at this time.

After the last earnings, I believe AMD is trading at 3 or even 8x it’s historical average p/e.

I’ll have to check into this but my broker has AMD at 394 p/e, when it was trading between 50 and 100. MU is at 42 p/e when last year it couldn’t get above 7 or 8 p/e. Paying a huge premium upfront for speculative growth which is years away.

***minor edits
 
I'm "airdrop farming" right now in crypto. I've also been slowly accumulating while prices are low with the expectation of another blow-off top bull run in probably 2024, but we'll see. Obviously that bet could fail, but I'm diversifying greatly when I see good buy opportunities. I have a few very small moonshot bags that could potentially do 100-1000x, but if they don't, well, $100 doesn't mean a whole lot to me these days, it's worth the risk.

Anyway, there are all sorts of new developments in crypto, some really exciting web3 architecture projects (cross-chain linking, new chains to compete with Ethereum that are actually usable and scalable with less than a penny per transaction and instant speed, services such as allowing conversion of massive strings of characters to human-readable addresses, architecture to loan your computing power or file storage space to the network for others to use, etc etc), and the new thing is, instead of initial public sales, blockchain companies are opening their testnets to people, and then "airdropping" anywhere from 9-30% of their token supply to the people who helped test their platforms. Then there is a selling frenzy, and the price bottoms out. Fortunately nearly everyone tries to claim on the claim websites, which get congested so some people end up getting very little, but I found out how to interact directly with the contract when the claim period is open, so I should be in position to sell at the top. Most of these projects are using AMMs (automated market makers) which means there is a liquididity pool and trading is done on a decentralized swapping exchange, so when you're selling, you're receiving from the liquidity pool (usually stablecoins), and when you buy, you're putting capital into the liquidity pool. So it's not quite as sketchy as selling to chumps at the top who end up ruined.

Anyway, I'm looking at companies who have received verified financial investments from investors, looking for $100M minimum investments into the company. The largest one has over 1 billion in investments from companies including Microsoft. In fact there is a lot of capital investment in emerging blockchain technology startups right now, from some of the biggest companies in the world.

The last big successful airdrop, they had much less than $1B in backing, and some people made 6 figures off the tokens they received for free.

Currently I'm working on 13 airdrops. We'll see how this goes, but if nothing else, I'm learning a shit ton about the actual technology and advancements happening in the space. it's been extremely informative for me. And testnets are free to use, they use ETH and other tokens from the Ethereum testnets, which you can receive from faucets as they are not worth anything. S it doesn't cost me anything... all I have to lose is the substantial amount of time I've been putting into it.
 
What % rates are y'alls finding on regular cash savings right now?

We've finally reached the 5% mark on 1-year fixed accounts in the UK, halving the speed of one's inflationary financial dissolution lol.
 
You mean like a regular savings account, or something where you have a term it needs to be invested for? Because my bank savings account is still under 1%.
 
Yeah treasury notes are paying higher % than that now, which is why some regional banks collapsed due to withdraws. As long as rates keep up, and/or going up then more banks will fail, especially those banks that loaded up on long term treasury bills at much lower rates

The US needs to refinance 1/3 of the ~$30T debt within ~12 months, so I bet rates are lower by then, because we don't want to refinance that at 5, 6, 7%, unless the government hates us

Also, I'm obviously down on my NVDA short that I posted here, but I'm convinced it just reached peak valuation ahead of earnings this week, and the AI excitement is a bubble, so I may double down tomorrow, or Thursday if it spikes on earnings
 
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