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  • LAVA Moderator: Mysterier

the market: stocks, bonds, options, whatever

$365. This feels like a blowout top with how high the RSI is on the daily and weekly charts. We'll see how it trades tomorrow but this feels like prime time for a pullback to me
 
I opened a few puts on SOXL but I'll probably take a loss if it continues up tomorrow. I think Salesforce and a few other companies have earnings soon and the CEO will mention AI a few hundred times during the earnings call which will push semiconductor stocks even higher. Seemingly any mention of a company being involved in AI can push the stock up 25% +. It's a bit over hyped imo.


I'll still be watching semis closely and hopefully get puts before these stocks come back to Earth. I had puts on PLTR which I (luckily) sold for a small profit before it went to the moon. TLT is starting to look good for calls.

Good luck 👍
 
yeah it's a bit rich hearing about AI from clueless execs, but it's true that the AI ecosystem is at the point now where it's useful in a way that it hasn't been before.

tech corps have already been experimenting with AI in normal business processes, and we're approaching the tipping point where more types of businesses start to dabble in it and incorporate it into processes. the potential is there and it's just a matter of tapping into it.
 
Xorkoth said:
You mean like a regular savings account, or something where you have a term it needs to be invested for? Because my bank savings account is still under 1%.
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Yeah, instant access bank savings here are also terrible lol. But there's a plethora of others offering more reasonable 4.5-5% rates now. For me 5% is always the point at which cash savings start to look reasonable. Though I still remember 10%+ rates from the late '80s with great nostalgia - it got me hooked on saving; I used to excitedly take my savings book in to the building society every week to put away like 50p of pocket money and watch the monthly interest grow with surprising rapidity :LOL:
 
thujone said:
yeah it's a bit rich hearing about AI from clueless execs, but it's true that the AI ecosystem is at the point now where it's useful in a way that it hasn't been before.

tech corps have already been experimenting with AI in normal business processes, and we're approaching the tipping point where more types of businesses start to dabble in it and incorporate it into processes. the potential is there and it's just a matter of tapping into it.
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I understand you know a lot more about this stuff than I do. Anyway, I wouldn't be surprised if AI turns out to be the next major paradigm shift in technology but im not sure it makes sense to bid up every stock associated with AI in this environment. I believe Nvidia's fair value is around $150 - $200, its trading 2x that amount.

*I closed SOXL for - 35%, could've been worse. 😔


Still too early to go against these stocks..

After some more thinking I could see semis running all next week and perhaps longer but I would expect a massive sell off at some point. I can't believe SOXL went up 20% today. I'm gonna reconsider Puts if it runs to $25.
 
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yeah it all went up quite suddenly. markets love to lose their marbles on friday, best day to be selling.

it's hard to say what fair value is if you're going by P/E, it's good for finding value buys among mature companies but in tech it's hard to gauge the growth potential of the company by recent earnings.
 
Quite suddenly all year..

Yes, but It's still very rare for a company to trade over 200 p/e for a long time. Somehow Salesforce does but it's the only established company I can think of. Trade desk is another company trading at extremely high p/e

I'm taking a break from the market. I'm down this year because of 3 really bad trades. I now keep a strict stop/loss at around 30%.

I had Meta at its bottom but I didn't consider semiconductors because I read earnings were expected to decline over the next few years. I believe growth is still pretty bad YoY.

I'm now bullish until August and expecting a good year for the S&P. I predict we close around 4750.

Good luck 👍
 
yeah bad trades hurt. i just try and go slow and steady nowadays, wasn't really expecting semis to go shooting up like that but i did expect it would be better by Q4.

if there's a broader recession then yeah it will probably hit semi sales but there will eventually be a boom cycle. AI possibly changes things in that recession might even increase demand for it as companies look to cut costs by replacing some expensive opex (i.e. labour) with AI solutions.
 
Xorkoth said:
You mean like a regular savings account, or something where you have a term it needs to be invested for? Because my bank savings account is still under 1%.
Click to expand...
Discover bank is 100% online (I've used for a decade), and their savings account rate just hit 4%

They have great customer service too
 
the berkshire shareholder meetings are interesting to watch, munger and buffett are no bull.

last week was rough for markets, everything down.

the warchest sits ready, just gotta wait for the bears to run out of steam then swoop in like a seagull on a french fry
 
Charlie Munger has got to be the funniest financial guy in the history of finance. He seems to have an infinite amount of one-liners and unique metaphors that you know he came up with himself. If you have Amazon prime there’s a book you can read for free that documents 30 years of Berkshire investor meetings. Most of the book is bland and repetitive but the occasional mungerism makes it worthwhile.
 
i dunno if there's an angle to the UFO news. i actually kind of like it because it seems like the only thing that isn't part of a narrative or grift, it's just for curiosity.

hm, maybe there's some alien tchotchkes worth dropshipping...
 
thujone said:
i dunno if there's an angle to the UFO news
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Don't worry, what are friends for? I've got an angle for you, alien sex!

FDF_33469.jpg
 
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