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  • LAVA Moderator: Shinji Ikari

the market: stocks, bonds, options, whatever

thujone said:
I actually only recognize one of these. Why are you watching these particularly?

I'm kind of just holding back and playing it conservative now. I don't see a clear path ahead in terms of trading opportunities. It's hard to tell where growth can erupt in a rising rate environment. Maybe we're in for a long winter..
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Most of those stocks are energy, mainly oil and gas. NGG and ES are the main utility companies in my area and energy bills are expected to almost double this winter.

Unfortunately, I do not expect any major rebound this year or even next year. If this is just the beginning of a recession, or if a recession is inevitable 6-18 months from now, any gains will probably get sold off at some point. With that said, $SPY at any price around $350, or under $400, should provide a decent return within Two years (10/2024)

Also, the next bear market rally could be over +20%.

I have very little money so I’m taking limited risk no matter what I do. If I were to give my best advice, I would stay on the sidelines to at least end of October or till the fed is done with rate hikes which might be the beginning of next year.

**Not Financial advice, mere speculation**
 
Of course an official US digital currency wouldn't be anonymous... not sure why anyone would think it would be. No government is going to create an anonymous digital currency. We still have regular crypto, though.
 
I noticed a lot of people who were saying bitcoin would hit 100k this year are now saying it’s going to take 5 years and if you bought at the top it might be 3 or 4 years before we hit that level again.

Often the best investing advice is to not take investing advice.
 
Increased risk of credit defaults

Fd116TSVEAM1CkT
 
sigmond said:
I noticed a lot of people who were saying bitcoin would hit 100k this year are now saying it’s going to take 5 years and if you bought at the top it might be 3 or 4 years before we hit that level again.

Often the best investing advice is to not take investing advice.
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None of the crypto crew know what the fuck they're talking about. It's a ponzi scheme that has no tangible value and very mysterious opaque origins that IMO justify the title of 'tyranny coin' to the whole thing.

The military industrial complex created the internet. We've known for a long time they want digital currencies that can be used to monitor and track everyone. Not hard to do the math on what's going on here.

'Crypto' is just seeding the idea in everyone's minds that digital currency is the future when it should be absolutely rejected outright! What is actually needed is the demolition of the FED, Bank of England, and all private central banking institutions.

It makes me laugh when people think they're actually going to take on the beast with crypto.
 
Hmm

Now:
www.reuters.com

Credit Suisse has strong capital base and liquidity -CEO memo

Credit Suisse has solid capital and liquidity, Chief Executive Ulrich Koerner told staff in a memo seen by Reuters on Friday and confirmed by a spokesperson for the Swiss bank that is due to announce the outcome of a strategic review next month.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

2008:
www.reuters.com

Bear Stearns CEO Says Liquidity Strong

Bear Stearns Cos <BSC.N> Chief Executive Alan Schwartz on Wednesday dismissed recurring speculation that the investment bank faces a cash crunch, saying it has hefty cash reserves that have remained little changed this year.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
 
-=SS=- said:
It makes me laugh when people think they're actually going to take on the beast with crypto.
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Most people just hope they're going to get rich. And it's no wonder why... a lot of people have gotten super rich from it. However, very nearly everyone who gets into it won't. Most people get into it knowing nothing about investing, and it's by far the riskiest asset class. They either buy at the top and sell immediately, or they buy, buy into the "HODL" mentality, and hold... hold... hold... then when it keeps going lower for a year, they sell at the very bottom after saying "okay crypto is dead", and then it spikes again even higher.

No ne can say what will happen with crypto. I'm betting (literally) on at least one more huge spike to much higher highs, but it'll definitely be a while.

Thing about crypto is, it's about a LOT more than digital currency now. It's Internet 2.0. Not Bitcoin, but layer-1 blockchains like Ethereum, they use decentralized computer architecture to power web services. Many such services are already in use... MANY more are planned (most of which will not rise to the top and will no longer exist when it all settles out). The monetary aspect of it is the incentive for people to lend their own processing power/tokens/etc (what is lent depends on the service and the blockchain) to the collective.

I'm past my crypto-nuts phase, but there is nevertheless a lot more to it than digital currency.
 
Silver +4%

Feels like it's going to run pretty hard when we start doing stuff to stop the dollar from going up so much
 
Xorkoth said:
Thing about crypto is, it's about a LOT more than digital currency now. It's Internet 2.0. Not Bitcoin, but layer-1 blockchains like Ethereum, they use decentralized computer architecture to power web services. Many such services are already in use... MANY more are planned (most of which will not rise to the top and will no longer exist when it all settles out). The monetary aspect of it is the incentive for people to lend their own processing power/tokens/etc (what is lent depends on the service and the blockchain) to the collective.

I'm past my crypto-nuts phase, but there is nevertheless a lot more to it than digital currency.
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The problem with the decentralized aspect is that it's not really fundamentally decentralized because it still relies on the infrastructure of the 'internet', all the service providers and networks etc. If we don't control the infrastructure then we're still just playing inside someone else's game, they still have the control. It's like regular money in banks, or stocks. Banks can 'bail in', the government can confiscate, etc.

I think it's just window dressing personally, giving false hope. Like precious metals too. In the end the house always wins, because the house makes the rules and they always retain the right to amend the deal should it be required.
 
Man, the 2x gold etf I own (DGP) barely even trades. Guess I should have bought the Proshares one if I wanted to see more action
 
S.J.B. said:
Lost every cent on my Twitter bet. :cry: I still think my timing was bad, but the thesis will ultimately be borne out. Unfortunately, in the options game, early is as bad as completely wrong.
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Well folks, look at that! I must say this is a bit heartbreaking. I bought the calls in May and was early by two weeks. Would have more than doubled my money instead of losing it all. 😭
 
Cathie Wood with an open letter begging the FED to stop raising rates is pretty funny. Her AARK ETF has done terrible this year

ark-invest.com

ARK Extends An Open Letter To The Fed

Could it be that the unprecedented 13-fold increase in interest rates during the last six months has raised the risks of a deflationary bust?
ark-invest.com ark-invest.com
 
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