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  • LAVA Moderator: Shinji Ikari

the market: stocks, bonds, options, whatever

Twitter's data is worth a ton in the right hands. Bloomberg pays millions for access to that data to predict market moves. Google pays millions and so does Microsoft who use it for their Watkins supercomputer analytics. It's still the go-to place for up-to-the-second news about anything and everything. Politicians now use it to make official announcements.

Even if Twitter themselves can't right the ship, someone will buy them out just to control the that data.
 
^ this is true, but I am not sure about the long term outlook for twitter still. it seems to be the nature of these platforms that they always give way to the next thing. what and when that will be who knows but I think twitter's in for difficulties in the shorter term and collapse in the longer term, but if you're buying and holding twitter you're hoping for some big acquisition (like you say for the data) which is possible in the middle term
 
I can't see my posts above yours. I tried to repost it 3 times but they're not showing up on my phone for some reason. Judging by your response I'm guessing you can see them. Weird.
 
it looks like you accidentally deleted them
i undeleted them for you
 
GenericMind said:
If you watch CNBC every analyst and talking heads say "follow me on Twitter," not "follow me on Facebook."
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That's because Twitter by design is a far better one-to-many communication medium than Facebook, but that by itself doesn't mean anything for profitability, which is the main thing that matters in the context of investing.

If it doesn't succeed on its own then it will be bought out by a company that can capitalize on its unique platform. With Google shuttering Google+ they're the most likely buyers imo.
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What unique platform? It's a messaging application in a sea of messaging applications. Just to emphasize the disparity between Twitter and the competition, Facebook generates roughly a million dollars a year of revenue per employee while Twitter is puffing along at just $350,000 per employee. It makes more sense to compare Twitter to private corporations like Reddit and Imgur than to giants like Google, or even to Facebook, which is still more than twice as efficient at generating profit than Twitter. Twitter also lacks the budget to invest the requisite capex into scaling a bandwidth-heavy application like Periscope, so it just makes no sense whatsoever to pursue that as a vehicle for growth.

There are a number of factors that indicate Twitter is likely to be sold off and gutted like Myspace was:

1) Growth has steadily been falling since 2013
2) Twitter use has stagnated in its primary market since 2014
3) Share value has pretty much been following the growth figures

What is there to invest in when the company simply isn't growing?
 
thujone said:
What unique platform? It's a messaging application in a sea of messaging applications.
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Can you name me another of these message applications that's widely used to break news the second it happens or that every celebrity, analyst, tv show, and sports team ask you to follow them on anytime they're on TV? Another one that has 95% global brand recognition?

I'm well aware of their growth figures dating back to their IPO. I'm saying that none of that matters.

Twitter is trading at around $17 today. Let's revisit this thread a year from now and we'll see who was right.
 
Right about what? neither of us have made any concrete predictions. All I'm saying is, given the risk factors at play, I wouldn't be comfortable going long. I'm frequently wrong anyway. if I were wrong this much in equities I would be bankrupt. In FX it's easy to hedge, so I play it safe and give up some profit to protect capital. I just ate shit this week going long on USD/CAD after the BoC announcement that the prime rate would hold. Because the market had already priced in the expectation that the BoC would cut, the news that no cut was happening sent the primed USD/CAD into a nosedive. I thought I would try to time the bounce like a smartie, since being long on USD is the safe bet. Bad move. the price dropped through first support, through the long-term trend and hit my stop-loss point, vapourizing $1k. I was watching it, fortunately, so I managed to open a short position and recoup some of the loss before the price stabilized. So yeah... right or wrong, does it matter? What if the Twitter price does flatline in a year, but meantime goes up to $30 and you cash out there? a conservative exit strategy would cut profits short but it could also save you from losses, might be worth considering
 
Right about... basically everything you said about the company. I disagree with almost all of your conclusions about Twitter, especially that it's simply a messaging app among many other similar ones. It's not. It's uniquely positioned to be a gigantic value to a potential acquirer like Google. And about Periscope not being a vehicle for growth for the company. I think it's going to be one of the biggest vehicles for growth.
 
Welp rumor today is that Twitter will be announcing some big departures tomorrow of some important people, so it might tank the stock nice and good. If it does I'm gonna buy some to hold for awhile. I hope I'm right about their long term future!
 
Nike's gotta be careful of competitors like Under Armor. I remember when they were new to the scene and the stock was trading at like 8 bucks. I remember thinking that if they could be successful at branding themselves as the "new-age" sports gear manufactured with the latest sports technology in mind(whether their designs actually improve performance or not doesn't matter, only the perception of whether it does) they could give old-guard companies like Nike a run for their money. They're now making annual revenues of $4 Billion a year and their stock touched $100 a share in September before dipping with the rest of the market to now sit at around $70 a share.

They're still only managing a tenth of Nike's revenues and are valued at a little over a tenth of Nike's market cap, so they still have a long way to go. And so far they haven't really seemed to take any meaningful bites out of Nike's profits but if they keep growing that could change. They're definitely still growing at a very fast pace. I just did a quick Google search for their recent press released and they're forecasting the opening of 700 new Under Armor stores by 2018.
 
GenericMind said:
Welp rumor today is that Twitter will be announcing some big departures tomorrow of some important people, so it might tank the stock nice and good. If it does I'm gonna buy some to hold for awhile. I hope I'm right about their long term future!
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Lots of stuff going on with Twitter now, it's going to be interesting to hear what the roadmap is going to be. All things considered, I'd rather be long Twitter than short but still too much uncertainty to see whether blue-sky thinking at this stage will be enough to retain investors who have already been waiting years for profit to materialize. Given that Twitter's growth rate is stagnant this could be the perfect time to switch to a freemium model, bringing cash flow positive in the short-term and appeasing investors enough to make long-term vision a reality. All eyes on the next move...
 
that was an intense bounce. maybe we are going to fall back down in the weeks that follow, but my portfolio is already back to where it was before brexit.
 
Bitcoin price has been falling since Friday, watch for the bottom if you want to turn a nice profit
 
read a basic investing book..i recommend "Buffetology" or "you can be a stock market genius too." Learn how to read and interpret a balance sheet, income statement, and statement of cash flows....then invest your money into a company you believe in, preferably when the price is at a low....I invested in the FANG stocks (facebook, amazon, netflix, and google) two years ago and have made a killing. Stick to basic business standpoints too if your starting out...BUY LOW, SELL HIGH. Seems perfectly logical but people panick with the stock market and most of the time do the exact opposite....Maybe start with an index fund, ETF, or mutual fund...
 
haven't heard of Buffetology but it sounds like Securities Analysis by Benjamin Graham and David L. Dodd, which Buffett has spoken highly of. It's a monstrous tome, some 700 pages, still working through it myself...
 
thujone said:
Bitcoin price has been falling since Friday, watch for the bottom if you want to turn a nice profit
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now is a good time to lock in some profits

chart.png
 
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