Sharp Reduction in Violent Crime Pinned on Increases in Alcohol Pricing!

Si Dread

Si Dread

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From the BBC - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27119689

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Report author Prof Jonathan Shepherd said the drop was connected to changing alcohol habits


Violent crime is continuing a long-term fall in England and Wales, according to annual figures from NHS hospitals.

There was a 12% fall in injuries from violent incidents in 2013, according to data from almost a third of emergency departments examined by Cardiff University.

It found 235,000 people were treated following a violent attack in 2013 - 32,800 fewer than in the previous year.

The authors said the rising cost of alcohol might have played a role.

They also said the figures mirrored other research, adding to evidence that the long-term trend in violent crime was down.

The 12% fall means it is the fifth consecutive year that NHS units have recorded a decrease in violent injuries.

Professor Jonathan Shepherd, the report's lead author, said: "The data shows another significant year-on-year fall. Apart from a 7% increase in 2008, levels of serious violence have fallen every year since 2001.

"Continuing, substantial decreases in serious violence are welcome for citizens, communities and in combating the fear of crime.

"They also decrease the costs of violence to health services and the criminal justice system and reduce pressures on hard-pressed Accident and Emergencies late at night at the weekend."

Men between 18 and 30 years old remained the most at risk of being a victim - but the report also found that the greatest annual decreases occurred among youth and young adult victims.

Why has crime been falling for 20 years across the developed world? Dominic Casciani examines the theories in The Crime Conundrum, BBC Radio 4.

Prof Shepherd said: "Violence is falling in many Western countries and we don't know all the reasons why.

"Binge drinking has become less frequent, and the proportion of youth who don't drink alcohol at all has risen sharply.

"Also, after decades in which alcohol has become more affordable, since 2008 it has become less affordable.

"For people most prone to involvement in violence, those aged 18-30, falls in disposable income are probably an important factor."
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"I think raising the price of alcohol would be giving a push to bring down the consumption levels further”

Prof John Ashton UK Faculty of Public Health.

The authors said that anti-violence strategies involving local public agencies working closely together could also be yielding results.

The Cardiff University study looked at treatment given to victims at 117 emergency departments, minor injury units and NHS walk-in centres.

Responding to the report, UK Faculty of Public Health president Prof John Ashton called for an increase in the price of alcohol.

"We do periodically have these crazy periods where there's a lot of drinking - like Hogarth's Gin Lane 200 years ago - and society eventually responds and drinks less," he told BBC Radio 5 live.

"And what's important is to get behind the history curves that are happening and give them a push in the right direction.

"I think raising the price of alcohol would be giving a push to bring down the consumption levels further."
'Let down'

The trend mirrors the findings published in the Crime Survey of England and Wales, a massive rolling project that interviews people about their experiences of crime, whether or not they have gone to the police.

Crimes recorded by the police also show long-term falls in violence, but the Office for National Statistics recently said that data from forces could not be considered reliable.

There is no comparable data for injuries from violent incidents in Northern Ireland or Scotland.

However, a Police Service of Northern Ireland report on recorded crime trends, published last July, found that violent crime figures had remained "fairly constant" since 2007/2008.

There had been a "small decrease", from 30,445 incidents in 2011/2012 to 30,305 in 2012/2013, the report added.

The Scottish Crime and Justice Survey, published last month, showed there had been a 22% drop in recorded incidents of violent crime since 2008-2009.

In a separate report published on Wednesday, a watchdog urged probation services to do more to tackle alcohol misuse by offenders.

Paul McDowell, Chief Inspector of Probation, said that good work in rehabilitating offenders in the UK was being "let down" by a lack of attention to alcohol, despite its known link to violence.
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while it's indisputable that alcohol consumption leads to a lot of crime i think they're reaching a little far with this correlation. while it may well be true that increases in alcohol prices reduced crime it hasn't been proven by this data IMO.
 
A fair point! However, the meat of this article is more the tacit acceptance that alcohol use causes violence & that reductions in the numbers of people drinking excessively bring a corresponding reduction in violent crime. Regardless of the reason for the reduction in excessive drinking, & the general trend in younger people does appear to be moving against alcohol, the fact that it is accepted in public discourse that alcohol is the cause of much late night violence is step in the right direction.

As we move against alcohol & tobacco in the West & become more accepting that their dangers are under-reported, so we move closer to accepting that the dangers of many illegal drugs are vastly exagerated.
 
Interesting article, and discussion above.
It is true that the article doesn't really attempt to prove that less access to alcohol was responsible for the drop in crime rate.
I personally am biased to want to believe it is so, like the article, but to be fair they should explicitly say that it is just conjecture.
 
excellent point! Legal Cannabis in Britain would cost a fraction of what illegal cannabis costs. If alcohol prices continues to rise, & moves towards legalising cannabis continue also, more & more people will move away from drinking & onto cannabis. That can only be good news for statistics such as those above.

I do not doubt that increases in alcohol prices reduce it's consumption, personally, but there's no proof that the price increases have led directly to lower levels of violent crime. It certainly is possible however.
 
Is it just me or is it a bit silly to infer from the rising cost of alcohol that people are using less of it? I'm easy to convince that if people drink less they'll commit fewer violent crimes, but the line of logic in this article is a bit too spastic for my taste.

All other things being equal, if incomes are dropping but the price of alcohol isn't then people are just buying the same amount of alcohol despite falling income. In that case, levying a tax on alcohol will reduce incomes, not consumption... something tells me that won't help your violent crime rate.

I'm sure the situation is not that simple, but if anyone makes a policy decision based on this report I hope they'll be a little more rigorous.
 
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