PM's splurge 'puts rates at risk'
JOHN Howard's multi-billion dollar spending plans will put upward pressure on interest rates, a former Reserve Bank board member has warned.
Australian National University Economics Department head Bob Gregory said today new government spending promises had increased the likelihood interest rates would go up.
The Prime Minister yesterday made $6 billion worth of election promises, including tax breaks for child care, improved facilities for schools, and tax breaks for small businesses.
The package includes $2.2 billion on child-care tax breaks, $1 billion on improving classrooms and other facilities at public and needy private schools, and $1.3 billion on tax breaks for small business.
Professor Gregory, a member of the Reserve Bank of Australia board from 1985 to 1995, said the government seemed to be spending the budget surplus at an "enormous rate".
He said while interest rates were primarily determined overseas, "all of this spending increases the likelihood of an interest rate increase".
"That's a little bit ironic, you know in a way, when you're watching television and seeing 'keeping interest rates low' on the one hand and such a large increase in spending," Prof Gregory said.
"All of a sudden we have this large surplus announced and now because it's occurred during an election period the (Liberal) party seems to be spending it at an enormous rate.
Mr Howard and his cabinet have been defending the spending plans announced at the official campaign launch yesterday in Brisbane.
Treasurer Peter Costello said the spending plans would not affect interest rates because of separate areas for savings the government had identified.
The government would keep the budget in surplus as long as the economy grew, he said.
"Since Budget time, we've actually revised our projections up and we think that we have a stronger starting position than we did at Budget time," he said on Melbourne radio 3AW.
In his campaign launch speech yesterday, Mr Howard referred to Mr Latham's education policy when he said a Coalition government would not have a "hit-list" of schools to lose money, as Labor has said should happen to wealthier private schools.
The Coalition would spend $1 billion on building projects in state schools and poorer private schools.
A further $1.8 billion would go to education services with emphasis on promoting skills training and careers in trades.
The Coalition would establish a network of 24 technical colleagues, quite separate from state colleges, costing $289 million over three years in areas with skills shortages and high youth unemployment rates.
The Youth Allowance and Austudy for over-25s would be extended to apprentices from July next year, costing $410 million.
Mr Howard promised more than $1.2 billion to small businesses, to encourage more start-up industries, protect contractors from union pressure and ease the broad tax burden.
Outfits with an annual turnover of $50,000 or less would get a 25 per cent "entrepreneurs" income tax discount.
The launch in the Brisbane City Hall was crammed by about 1000 Liberals with banners and posters, while a similar number of protesters, with their own material, condemned Mr Howard and tried to stop the invited guests from leaving the venue.
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