Buzz Lightbeer
Bluelight Crew
Lancet linkIt could also be that this variant is itself less severe
Omicron is so weak. It would help if official messaging around omicron would focus on how we're almost out of this crap and that people can resume their normal lives. Pretty much the only issue now, at least for European countries is that there's some additional pressure on hospitals due to staff falling out.
Understanding the burden of omicron depends crucially on the proportion of asymptomatic infections. A systematic review based on previous SARS-CoV-2 variants suggested that 40% of infections were asymptomatic.
Evidence suggests that the proportion of asymptomatic infections is much higher for omicron, perhaps as high as 80–90%. Garrett and colleagues found that among 230 individuals in South Africa enrolling in a clinical trial, 71 (31% ) were PCR positive for SARS-CoV-2 and had the omicron variant and no symptoms.
Assuming this prevalence of infection was representative of the population, the implied incidence compared to detected cases suggests that more than 90% of infections were asymptomatic in South Africa.
In addition to the much larger proportion of asymptomatic infections, in the USA the ratio of COVID-19 hospitalisations to detected cases hospitalised has declined by about 50% in most states compared with previous peaks.
The proportion of COVID-19 patients in hospital who require intubation or are dying has declined by as much as 80–90% in Canada and South Africa.
Despite the reduced disease severity per infection, the massive wave of omicron infections means that hospital admissions are increasing in many countries and will rise to twice or more the number of COVID-19 hospital admissions of past surges in some countries according to the IHME models.
In countries where all hospital admissions are screened for COVID-19, a substantial proportion of these admissions will be among individuals coming to hospital for non-COVID-19 reasons who have asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. Nevertheless, infection control requirements put increased demands on hospitals.
Surprisingly, IHME models suggest that the transmission intensity of omicron is so high that policy actions—eg, increasing mask use, expanding vaccination coverage in people who have not been vaccinated, or delivering third doses of COVID-19 vaccines—taken in the next weeks will have limited impact on the course of the omicron wave. IHME estimates suggest that increasing use of masks to 80% of the population, for example, will only reduce cumulative infections over the next 4 months by 10%. Increasing COVID-19 vaccine boosters or vaccinating people who have not yet been vaccinated is unlikely to have any substantial impact on the omicron wave because by the time these interventions are scaled up the omicron wave will be largely over.
By March, 2022 a large proportion of the world will have been infected with the omicron variant. With continued increases in COVID-19 vaccination, the use in many countries of a third vaccine dose, and high levels of infection-acquired immunity, for some time global levels of SARS-CoV-2 immunity should be at an all time high. For some weeks or months, the world should expect low levels of virus transmission.
Thank God this is almost over.
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