Covid-19 Outbreak of new SARS-like coronavirus (Covid-19)

[AutoTripper]

If it makes you feel better, I'm always making typing mistakes in my posts. It's cause I only proof read them after I hit post and edit if I see a mistake, not before.

Yeah I am admittedly one of the worst for typos. I injured my optic nerve in 2016 by accident, and have permanent visual and focal impairment.

I still see fine enough, but the way my eyes focus and refocus doesn't work normally, combine that with major HPPD and general malaise,,and you have a recipe for typing errors.

I do try and check and double check, but as long as the meaning is clear enough, that is all that matters essentially.

 

[JessFR]

Yeah I am admittedly one of the worst for typos. I injured my optic nerve in 2016 by accident, and have permanent visual and focal impairment.

I still see fine enough, but the way my eyes focus and refocus doesn't work normally, combine that with major HPPD and general malaise,,and you have a recipe for typing errors.

I do try and check and double check, but as long as the meaning is clear enough, that is all that matters essentially.

I'm actually super lucky to not need glasses. Both my parents are have the same genetic vision impairment (I forget which... Short sightedness maybe?). So it's quite surprising that I've never needed glasses.

My problem, apart from nearly everything I type being from my phone with phone autocorrect, is that I'm a pretty fast typer, and I'm prone to typing different words that came into my head rather than the one I meant. So sometimes I might type, and correctly spell an entirely different word that only phonetically sounds like the word I meant to say. It's weird.

 

[birdup.snaildown]

Yeah I am admittedly one of the worst for typos. I injured my optic nerve in 2016 by accident, and have permanent visual and focal impairment.

I still see fine enough, but the way my eyes focus and refocus doesn't work normally, combine that with major HPPD and general malaise,,and you have a recipe for typing errors.

I do try and check and double check, but as long as the meaning is clear enough, that is all that matters essentially.

I feel like an asshole now.
I'm sorry.

If you didn't describe having a discussion with me as digging up a mole and trying to pry it's eyes open, I probably would have resisted the opportunity to tease you about saying your eyes were not open.

I also have HPPD and bad eyesight, but that doesn't usually make me insert extra words in sentences. I still think it was a Freudian slip... because you're the mole!

 

[JessFR]

Awww. LET'S ALL HUG NOW!

Fuck politics.

 

[novaveritas]

You're avoiding the question.
You stated something as fact.



I'd like you to explain how you got to this number.

not my number, it was something I was told by a pathologist I got to it by standing in a corridor having a converstion.
The reasoning was quite simple, currently there are roughly 600k people wandering around in the general population in England who already have a positive test result and therefore can die within 28 days of a positive test,
Some of those end up in hospital for other reasons and people who were not admitted for COVID get infected by nosocomial infection which is significant and still not under control.
If you test everybody on admission to hospital irrespective of whether they have symptoms you now have a pool of already sick people, by definition they are sick because they got admittted to hospital, and roughly 3% of those people will test positive. some will then die but the cause of death is not neccessarily COVID but it gets counted as a COVID death (iactually only in your head because that is what you want to believe) and what some vested interests want you to believe. But it is officially a death with coronavirus positive test result.
the easiest thing is to look at the numbers of admissions for COVID, those are most of the people who can die OF CoVID
75% of PCR results are Ct >30 and are cold positives..... so where does that take you?

You said you did mathematics at university, go look at the gamma function buried in Imperial College model and tell me that is not designed to hoover up as many deaths as possible and assign them as COVID deaths.

 

[birdup.snaildown]

I edited the post you're responding to shortly after you edited your post, that I was responding to... if you want to scroll up and have a look.

So given there are 50k deaths within 28 days of a positive test and people can and do die of things other than COVID what percentage do you think?

Rather than speculating based on conversations in corridors, I had a look at the numbers.

The reported deaths from COVID patients who are hospitalized (for COVID) at the time of death in England are pretty similar to the daily reported deaths. They don't vary anywhere near 50%. Maybe 5%. I'm sure there are some deaths that aren't caused by COVID that end up in the statistics, but there would have to be a conspiracy for it to be more than half.

If you'd like to present some data to me that indicates over 50% of COVID deaths are unrelated to COVID, I'm happy to have a look at it with an open mind.

You appear to be trying to determine the percentage through logic. Why not just look at the data?

 

[JessFR]

UK's COVID-19 death toll lowered to 41,000 after methodology change

Britain's official death toll from the COVID-19 pandemic was lowered by over 5,000 on Wednesday because the government adopted a new way of counting fatalities after concerns were raised that the old method overstated them.

www.reuters.com

 

[novaveritas]

I edited the post you're responding to shortly after you edited your post, that I was responding to... if you want to scroll up and have a look.



Rather than speculating based on conversations in corridors, I had a look at the numbers.

The reported deaths from COVID patients who are hospitalized (for COVID) at the time of death in England are pretty similar to the daily reported deaths. They don't vary anywhere near 50%. Maybe 5%. I'm sure there are some deaths that aren't caused by COVID that end up in the statistics, but there would have to be a conspiracy for it to be more than half.

If you'd like to present some data to me that indicates over 50% of COVID deaths are unrelated to COVID, I'm happy to have a look at it with an open mind.

You appear to be trying to determine the percentage through logic. Why not just look at the data?

post the links you used so we are using the same numbers.

people admitted for COVID do actually recover too, despite the medics best efforts..

 

[birdup.snaildown]

UK's COVID-19 death toll lowered to 41,000 after methodology change

11.5%
Higher than my guess of 5% but significantly lower than 50+%

 

[JessFR]

Deaths in UK 'a fifth higher than normal levels'

Nearly 14,000 deaths occurred in the week ending 13 November - with 3,000 linked to Covid.

www.bbc.com

I'm not seeing nearly as much hugging as I'd like. Virtual hugging doesn't transmit covid. All it transmits is love!

*hugs*

 

[birdup.snaildown]

@novaveritas

Declining death rate from COVID-19 in hospitals in England - The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine

Mahon J, Oke J, Heneghan C. The UK government publishes the following data: The daily number of people who have

www.cebm.net

Deaths in UK 'a fifth higher than normal levels'

Nearly 14,000 deaths occurred in the week ending 13 November - with 3,000 linked to Covid.

www.bbc.com

3000 excess deaths

United Kingdom COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

United Kingdom Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

COVID deaths reported for UK during that week = approximately 3000

but as @JessFR pointed out, the methodology has changed. So let's assume that prior to August, the rate was 11.5% incorrect. Now it appears to be more or less accurate.

I never believed it to be 100% accurate and I'm sure it isn't 100% accurate now. (How could it be?) But I don't believe it was ever less than 50% accurate.

...

Like I said, if you'd like to present your data that suggests over 50% of the COVID deaths were not caused by the virus I'm happy to look it over with an open mind.

 

[novaveritas]

@novaveritas

Declining death rate from COVID-19 in hospitals in England - The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine

Mahon J, Oke J, Heneghan C. The UK government publishes the following data: The daily number of people who have

www.cebm.net

3000 excess deaths

United Kingdom COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

United Kingdom Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

COVID deaths reported for UK during that week = approximately 3000

but as @JessFR pointed out, the methodology has changed. So let's assume that prior to August, the rate was 11.5% incorrect. Now it appears to be more or less accurate.

I never believed it to be 100% accurate and I'm sure it isn't 100% accurate now. (How could it be?) But I don't believe it was ever less than 50% accurate.

I still haven't got your estimate for the percentage of deaths within 28 days of a positive coronavirus test which are dead of COVID. FWIW COVID is a diagnosis.
I am using ONS and PHE My number is not 50% but you first....

I will give you a pointer ONS state:
We use the term “due to COVID-19” or “due to Influenza and Pneumonia” when referring only to deaths where that illness was recorded as the underlying cause of death. We use the term “involving COVID-19” or “involving Influenza and Pneumonia” when referring to deaths that had that illness mentioned anywhere on the death certificate, whether as an underlying cause or not.

 

[AutoTripper]

I feel like an asshole now.
I'm sorry.

If you didn't describe having a discussion with me as digging up a mole and trying to pry it's eyes open, I probably would have resisted the opportunity to tease you about saying your eyes were not open.

I also have HPPD and bad eyesight, but that doesn't usually make me insert extra words in sentences. I still think it was a Freudian slip... because you're the mole!

Mate, it is me who is sorry. Truly. Luckily I have this inbuilt aspect where I just about manage to catch sight of myself and my true values as a person.

It shames me to realise how I have let myself down.

There is never justification for me to be derogatory or unpleasant to anybody, regardless of the situation.

I am highly spiritual at heart, a philosopher and thinker by nature.
Not so good at providing solidly backed scientific arguments in a nutshell.

I need to keep focus and sight of what is ultimately most important to me. Something much higher than winning arguments or proving points.

 

[birdup.snaildown]

@novaveritas

I haven't done any calculations. If I was to do it accurately, it would take some time. I'd have to take into account age demographics of reported deaths from COVID and look at the mortality rate of people in each age bracket to determine their odds of dying within that period for other reasons. Frankly, I don't have the time or motivation to do this.

You were the one that stated a figure. You said more than half of the reported deaths from COVID are not caused by the virus. The onus is on you to back that up with data.

You would also have to explain why the excess death rate in the UK roughly equals the number of reported COVID deaths. Logically, it should be around half the number or less. Right?

I still haven't got your estimate for the percentage of deaths within 28 days of a positive coronavirus test which are dead of COVID...
I am using ONS and PHE My number is not 50% but you first....

I have already devoted enough time to this discussion. If you refuse to justify your statement, that's up to you. If your number is not over 50% does that mean you've changed your mind?

 

[JessFR]

Mate, it is me who is sorry. Truly. Luckily I have this inbuilt aspect where I just about manage to catch sight of myself and my true values as a person.

It shames me to realise how I have let myself down.

There is never justification for me to be derogatory or unpleasant to anybody, regardless of the situation.

I am highly spiritual at heart, a philosopher and thinker by nature.
Not so good at providing solidly backed scientific arguments in a nutshell.

I need to keep focus and sight of what is ultimately most important to me. Something much higher than winning arguments or proving points.

MORE HUGS!

 

[birdup.snaildown]

@novaveritas, let me try and explain it to you another way.

The article that @JessFR posted details how much the COVID toll was altered when they changed it from NO TIME LIMIT to 28 days. The difference in the death rate was 11.5%. It therefore makes absolutely no sense that if you changed it from 28 days to 14 days, the difference would be over 50%. Get me? It must be less than 11.5%. My initial guess was 5% but that was just a wild stab in the dark and I was being conservative. I think it is probably less than 5%, but I wouldn't be hugely surprised if it turned out to be between 5% and 10%.

There is no way it is anywhere near 50+%

UK's COVID-19 death toll lowered to 41,000 after methodology change

Britain's official death toll from the COVID-19 pandemic was lowered by over 5,000 on Wednesday because the government adopted a new way of counting fatalities after concerns were raised that the old method overstated them.

www.reuters.com

 

[novaveritas]

@novaveritas

I haven't done any calculations. If I was to do it accurately, it would take some time. I'd have to take into account age demographics of reported deaths from COVID and look at the mortality rate of people in each age bracket to determine their odds of dying within that period for other reasons. Frankly, I don't have the time or motivation to do this.

You were the one that stated a figure. You said more than half of the reported deaths from COVID are not caused by the virus. The onus is on you to back that up with data.

You would also have to explain why the excess death rate in the UK roughly equals the number of reported COVID deaths. Logically, it should be around half the number or less. Right?



I have already devoted enough time to this discussion. If you refuse to justify your statement, that's up to you. If your number is not over 50% does that mean you've changed your mind?

polish your reading comprehension skills too, I didn't say it was my number at all, merely that I had heard it.

your logic is incorrect.

Some of the excess deaths are for certain due to other conditions which had treatment delayed, excess deaths just means more deaths than the rolling average of 5 years.

What you need to ponder is the proportion of deaths involving covid that were deaths due to covid, and that is what pathologists think about. Doctors signing the death cert just put down what is likely based on the patients history it doesn't matter to the doctor, dead is dead.

 

[birdup.snaildown]

polish your reading comprehension skills

Literally none of your attempts to insult me land. You can keep making petty comments if you like, but all they do is make you look bad. I'm not losing any sleep over it.

There is nothing wrong with my comprehension skills.

I didn't say it was my number at all, merely that I had heard it.

Perhaps you misspoke. More likely, you are back-pedalling.

This is what you said:

Deaths are called as 13,344, but well over half of these deaths are not due to COVID but are death within 28 days of a positive coronavirus test result.

Here is a link to your original post, if you'd like to see it in context:

Covid-19 - Outbreak of new SARS-like coronavirus (Covid-19)

This man is NOT a wild conspiracy theorist, but a genuine, qualified expert in virology etc. Having a PHD doesn't make you right about everything. I know highly educated people that are complete fucking morons. Not saying this guy is a moron, but he doesn't negate the opinions of all other...

www.bluelight.org

Barba tenus sapientes.

 

[AutoTripper]

MORE HUGS!

Thank you Jess. It has actually really been bothering me feeling, or rather being aware of me being a source of negative emotion for yourself here of late. I really hate that. Being very sick and suffering so much wobbles my focus.

But there is a sort of boomerang feature where I just about manage to come back to myself lol.

 

[novaveritas]

Literally none of your attempts to insult me land. You can keep making petty comments if you like, but all they do is make you look bad. I'm not losing any sleep over it.

There is nothing wrong with my comprehension skills.



Perhaps you misspoke. More likely, you are back-pedalling.

This is what you said:



Here is a link to your original post, if you'd like to see it in context:

Covid-19 - Outbreak of new SARS-like coronavirus (Covid-19)

This man is NOT a wild conspiracy theorist, but a genuine, qualified expert in virology etc. Having a PHD doesn't make you right about everything. I know highly educated people that are complete fucking morons. Not saying this guy is a moron, but he doesn't negate the opinions of all other...

www.bluelight.org

Barba tenus sapientes.

read what I wrote. rather than throwing chaff cherry picking out of context and deflecting

second wave..... Over half those deaths assigned as death from COVID are actually deaths with positive coronavirus test, it you check with the ONS you will find that is true. It is then a matter of opinion how many of those are deaths from COVID, and that is the pathological point.

Keep carrying that water.