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chemically insane is a nazi vs. lets not get ahead of ourselves

rules and speculations

  • school is cool

    Votes: 5 55.6%

  • CI is a fool

    Votes: 4 44.4%

  • its not what you know, its what you can prove

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Total voters
    9
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the toad

the toad

Bluelighter
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way back yonder, 'cross the hill
There has been much bickering lately over being right or wrong versus stating facts or making assumptions...

I just ask that people not speculate and try to be sure of things that are not based on fact... especially in threads regarding harm reduction and new members...

This is the thread to discuss issues anyone has with my moderating... if you have a complaint let me know... or send a pm if you dont want everyone to see, and i will pm you back and not post it here :)

Dont forget to vote in the poll above ^
 
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Chemically Insane said:
I just ask that people not speculate and try to be sure of things that are not based on fact...
Click to expand...

This is completely reasonable and I will do my best to follow it, BUT

I have never once made anything up... maybe I embellish the truth to get a point a cross, but usually not by much.




Saying that an overwhelming percentage of pills in the US do not have MDMA is as much of a fact as saying Jews were holocaust victims, maybe not all holocaust victims were Jews, but if you look at a list of people who died and see that 6 million are Jews, and only 250 thousand are homosexual, or gypsy or whatever, you can make a pretty damn good inference.
 
Folley said:
This is completely reasonable and I will do my best to follow it, BUT

I have never once made anything up... maybe I embellish the truth to get a point a cross, but usually not by much.




Saying that an overwhelming percentage of pills in the US do not have MDMA is as much of a fact as saying Jews were holocaust victims, maybe not all holocaust victims were Jews, but if you look at a list of people who died and see that 6 million are Jews, and only 250 thousand are homosexual, or gypsy or whatever, you can make a pretty damn good inference.
Click to expand...

I must say thats a damn good analogy. Lol
 
i'll just continue saying stuff like "judging by such and such i can make speculation x on subject y" so it is known that im speculating
 
A quick search on pr in the northeast alone since the beginning of December there were 110 reports w bout 15 different legit presses which off the top of my head is roughly in the 90% range of being bunk. Give or take a few reports considering I was counting them while doing 80mph on the highway. Not speculating just telling facts.
 
I dont mind that as long as it isnt something like "i guarantee x% of pills are bunk"... nobody knows... everyone can guess..

Know-it-all attitude and acting as an expert in the field thats seen all the data and knows all the answers is not going to be simply accepted as fact without backup evidence they can share to prove their point...

I never said the estimate was a poor estimate i simply suggested we not speculate at all when it comes to noob and harm reduction questions... if you wanna speculate and kick around an idea then open a thread or write a blog... thats all im asking..
 
^ right. i totally agree with you that 90%* of the 110 reports submitted to pr for that region were about bunk pills.

nobody - not me, not ci, nobody - was ever disputing figures like this.

i found out why you're so obnoxious - you're a yankees fan! it all makes so much sense now :)

alasdair

* actually, 86.36%.
 
Ok well now there's no more speculating my 90% is backed by the numbers to prove it. Now on to the national average. I agree w folley that the 70% range is most likely accurate but I'm to tired to do the legwork on that one so ill leave that up to someone else or ill add em all up Tom night and get back to u on that.
 
Chemically Insane said:
Wait didnt the first numbers say 68%? Now its 90%? So far we have a speculation range of 51% to 99%... but which one is right?
Click to expand...


I said all along the east coast percentages of bunk were at 90% then I agreed w folley that the national average was probably at 70%. Southeast section of the us since feb 2011 roughly 106 new reports with approximately 21 or so legitimate pills confirmed 6 of which were pokeball imports which would then drop that number down to bout 15. Again close to the 90% range give or take a few reports again as I'm still on the highway. Now when u take the Midwest w Chicago into the equation the percentage of bunk pills will obviously fall with all the mints there but not to worry cause they'll bounce right back up once we get to folleys neck of the woods in the northwest.
 
Folley said:
68% was just from the front page of PR alone, 90% would be more accurate.
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This is exactly what im talking about. That statement is purely speculation, your now saying that ecstasydata is probably wrong and your newest guess is probably right... and your trying to use it as PROOF, to "drive home your point"...
 
yanker said:
Ok well now there's no more speculating my 90% is backed by the numbers to prove it.
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sigh. you are automatically assuming that the pr number maps absolutely accurately onto the entire population. it doesn't.

have you ever seen a poll about politics. it always says in the bottom corner of the screen "margin of error 3%" or such. statistically, it's easy to calculate the margin of error and confidence interval for a political poll because the size of the sample is known (obviously) but the size of the population is also known. the margin of error is a mathematical function of the other.

in the case of pr, the sample size is known but the accuracy with which this maps onto the actual situation in the actual real world is a whole different thing for a number of reasons including, but not limited to: self-selecting sample; selection bias; unknown population size;

we know for a fact that 86.36% of pill reports in that region are for bunk pills. that doesn't automatically mean that 86.36% of the actual total of pills in the region are bunk. it's this assumption that's incorrect.

alasdair
 
yanker said:
A quick search on pr in the northeast alone since the beginning of December there were 110 reports w bout 15 different legit presses which off the top of my head is roughly in the 90% range of being bunk.
Click to expand...
just out of interest, yanker, what is your estimate of the total number of pills (either containing mdma or alleged to contain mdma) that were consumed in the same region in the same period (roughly 5 months)?

alasdair
 
Probably more than 110 maybe 112 cause I truly believe during the lifespan of a pills circulation that eventually it gets posted. When they do polls to see who's voting for who do they call up every single American and ask who there voting for? No because I never get a call to see who I'm voting for yet they come up w a number w percentages of who the winner is projected to be. There's multiple posters in every state of the country how many presses do u really believe sneak by us over on pr? Not many.
 
Folley said:
It's obvious that an overwhelmingly large percentage of the pills being sold are not MDMA. The exact number is not needed, because its fucking obvious.
Click to expand...
q.e.d :\

when your argument boils down to "i don't have to prove anything. it's obvious", there's nothing left to say. that's a pretty common argument used to 'prove' the existence of god.

yanker, you gave some numbers - 15 out 110 - for "the northeast alone since the beginning of December". in that same period in the same place, what do you think was the total number of pills consumed that contained mdma or purported to contain mdma?

alasdair
 
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