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  • LAVA Moderator: streaM Freak

the market: stocks, bonds, options, whatever

thujone said:
now it's more closely correlated with growth assets and that makes it riskier because why invest in Bitcoin when you can just invest in tech stocks that cash flow and reinvest?
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Investing in individual tech stocks is potentially as risky as investing in Bitcoin, unless you're really expert level knowledgeable about all aspects of the company, and its competitors, and market conditions in general. Pick the wrong tech company and you could lose a fortune. Although pick the right ones, and you could make a fortune. Unless you meant buying into the tech heavy Nasdaq index fund, or something like that?

I'm just doing what most of the financial influencers advise, buying a globally diversified index fund, a regular amount every month.

It may be boring, but it's steady, and statistically it is the method that is most likely to provide consistent positive returns over the medium to long term.

I do also go off on more obscure funds, some of which have done very well. Australia for example. My timing of the buy and sell was incredibly lucky. I caught the bottom and the top, almost exactly. I only wish I'd had more money to put in!

Same with a European fund. Even the UK's humble FTSE 100 index fund, and a UK dividend fund, have been performing very well. And it's been my top performer over the last couple of weeks. Clearly the markets like our new PM and his chancellor, and their financial policies.

I had a big fail with an Emerging Markets fund. I soon found out that the risk level was not for me. Soon after buying in the Chinese government introduced some policies that made things extremely difficult for their tech companies, IIRC, and after a couple of years of the figures being deep in red, I gave up on it, and sold up, at a loss, (justified breaking a golden rule to myself on account of the 'sunk cost fallacy' argument), and bought more heavily into global /USA funds instead. Put it all down to a 'learning experience.' The global and USA funds did extremely well over the intervening years, and more than made up for my relatively light losses in the EM. I had waited for a 6 month high before selling, to try and minimise the losses as much as possible.

But I gather the EMs have had a very good run over more recent times. Not sure if it would be anything like the level of returns that Global and USA funds have delivered over the last 4-5 years.
 
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at the end of the day, the U.S. is still the cleanest dirty shirt and has the most liquid markets.

KOSPI was a recent example of what happens when liquidity suddenly dries up, big crash and mass liquidations.

EM funds are exposed based on their holdings... I don't think any of us really consider China or SK to be emerging but that's how they're classified and so EM funds can be heavy on tech exposure.

FTSE 100 is likely benefiting heavily from not just banks but also energy companies like Shell and BP

In the U.S., Exxon and Chevron have likewise been rising and Canadian energy, too

Canada is the one economy most people overlook and shouldn't, if stability is the aim.

We have some of the best performing banks in the world that themselves are globally diversified, and ruthless about risk management.

I also invest in individual companies here without worry because they have stable business models and in some cases industry leaders, e.g. Cameco

But many foreign investors look at Canada and their first thought is "what do they do, lumber?"
 
That's some interesting high-level stuff. I think it's good to think about the macro stuff before honing in on what more specifically interests you, as opposed to the opposite which would be finding something very specific and then creating a narrative around it.

And of course, these days every confident decision should probably come with a fraction of a percentage taken off due to continued failure to be a peaceful world. Or maybe even a couple full percentage points off for risk of species extinction.

What do we think?
 
streaM Freak said:
Or maybe even a couple full percentage points off for risk of species extinction.

What do we think?
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If 'the end of the world is really nigh' any time soon, then losing all your money in the markets is going to be the least of your worries, and not really going to matter one bit, at that stage.

Whether you own stocks in individual companies, or index funds of whatever type.

It reminds me of the situation of the Jews in the harrowing but awesome movie The Pianist, where some of them had manged to keep some of their money despite the Nazi raids, but there was insane profiteering among the refugees on their way to the death camps.

With kids charging many times the previous value for a bar of chocolate etc. The price was paid, along with saying something like 'what good is all that money going to do for you, considering where we're all going'. I know it was 'only a movie', but certainly based on true events, and it's not hard to imagine scenarios like that. Money would lose it's value, and bartering with useful goods and food would be the real currency.
 
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for long-term investing i mainly just want to be in dividend grower funds and tech.

with deglobalization, inflation, and unsustainable government deficits, what worries me most is the prospect of increase taxation and austerity.

in canada, taxes are already the biggest expense even with the high housing costs, and yet the government keeps growing the deficit to throw money around with dubious returns.

i think that stability is going to be more of a concern than investment returns over the next ten years. if market drops happen in tandem with deflation then that is manageable, the problem is if stagflation persists how bad will it get and how long will it last
 
thujone said:
for long-term investing i mainly just want to be in dividend grower funds and tech.

with deglobalization, inflation, and unsustainable government deficits, what worries me most is the prospect of increase taxation and austerity.

in canada, taxes are already the biggest expense even with the high housing costs, and yet the government keeps growing the deficit to throw money around with dubious returns.

i think that stability is going to be more of a concern than investment returns over the next ten years. if market drops happen in tandem with deflation then that is manageable, the problem is if stagflation persists how bad will it get and how long will it last
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I'm a big believer in alternative currencies. Precious metals, crypto, and even droogs.
Things that are a hedge against hyperinflation.
 
any store of wealth the government can't track seems like it's going to be worth holding, especially since there's a growing appetite for pushing taxes up past the laffer curve
 
I don't like name dropping, because I can't predict the future, but HUMA is set up very nice right now. And they are now in the commercial stage selling regenerative biotech that crushed the industry standard.

It's a risky move, but again the set up is just beautiful. Earnings is on Wednesday. To see how that product is selling. Basically they use it where there isn't an available vein in ER situations and the patients cells regenerate around the "off-the-shelf" catheter. They've already got department of defense contracts, and VA hospital contracts, which is always a good thing.

Last week they got approved for human studies on the heart. Which has huge implications if it goes well.
 
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Trying to add to my overall downpayment which we're looking to make sometime next summer. I already have 10k in a HSA at 8.5% if we apply for a mortgage through the same bank.
 
What would you say about buying Gold and Silver rn. They've been hanging in around $4200 and $60 for awhile. seem like they're on an upward trend.
 
i think gold will end up between $5k-$6 by next year then crash and stay lower for years.

$SMCI rallied 25% this week on hot earnings, $HPE sympathy rallying

energy still hot
 
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