number of jobs created during term: +14M
Not exactly 'creation' as much as 'return to work'.
This is still sticking in my craw, and I heard some insight on it recently (sorry, radio talk show so I can't link a source). I'll patch together what I can recall, and what I can find online to fill gaps.
To understand the jobs situation, the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes two jobs reports. The establishment survey and the household survey. The establishment survey samples actual employers and shows the growth in nonfarm payroll jobs as well as a breakdown from specific industry. While the household survey, samples individual households, measures broad census data like the total of employment age population, size of labor force, the U3 unemployment rate, and the total of employed and unemployed. I'm not sure where undocument or cash-only employment falls in these numbers, if they show at all. But to get the best available picture, we have to work with these two data sets.
To Covid specifically, the world shut down effectively around March 2020. So, the fairest assessment of Biden's "job creation" is to compare to that February 2020 full employment baseline. It took until January 2021 for employment to get back to the pre-covid levels. This would say any job gains in between were people 'returning to work', whereas Biden can claim jobs added above that point, beginning in January 2021. With that perspective, we have gained 5.5m jobs according to the Establishment survey (only 2.3m by the Household survey, but let's stay generous) since January 2021. Yay, Biden!
However, in that timeframe, our population of working-age residents has grown by 8.1m (obviously does not account for illegal aliens). So, participation rate has actually dropped from 63.3% to 62.5% (close enough I'd call it a wash, others would get more adamant Biden's got a net loss here). Additionally, 5m are in that working age range but out of the workforce, meaning they gave up on the job market. One might guess 'early retirement' but really, who does anyone know that could retire early coming out of Covid?
For Trump, 37mo into his term, the population only grew by 5.6m, while job growth outpaced population growth...compared to Biden who has population growth outpacing job growth. The net effect here is Biden is employing less of the available workforce than Trump did.
But, wait....there's more! Since that January 2021 start point, Biden's labor market has added 3.4m part-time jobs, with 1.7m in the recent 9mo. This is people taking second and third jobs to make ends meet. Stats show the number of people having second jobs since Biden took office is up by 1.6m people trying to make ends meet. This is why the establishment survey (employers) shows the big increase, but the household survey doesn't reflect 'new jobs' (only are you employed yes/no). This has been partially affected by tax law changes classifying Uber and Lyft drivers and others as 'self-employed', but are they really starting their own businesses? Meanwhile, full-time jobs are now down 1.8m since June 2023. Where are full time jobs getting created? By the gov't spending tax dollars - this has made up 21-58% of all new jobs over the past 6 employment surveys. Where are these jobs being created? In 15% of the US counties. Try to guess where these gov't jobs are located. Reminder - the gov't does not produce ANYTHING, it collects taxes and redistributes that wealth, but there is no economic gain with these jobs, no impact to GDP or the real economy.
And the ultimate kicker? Since October 2019, native born workers have LOST a net 1.4m jobs, with foreign-born workers gaining 3m jobs. There hasn't been a month of net job creation for native born workers since July 2018.
Joe's been awesome for the American worker. Hasn't he?
