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Life Advice & Visual Arts
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LAVA Moderator: Shinji Ikari
the market: stocks, bonds, options, whatever
- Thread starter hydroazuanacaine
- Start date
pretty good. semis play is still going, war chest is full and just mulling over ideas on how to deploy it.
i'm working on automating some TA, should help bring to my attention opportunities that i'm missing now.
i don't have a strong idea of what's next but i'm keeping an eye on u.s. small caps
i'm working on automating some TA, should help bring to my attention opportunities that i'm missing now.
i don't have a strong idea of what's next but i'm keeping an eye on u.s. small caps
I admit I was dead wrong about the market this year which isn’t surprising since it’s impossible to predict 6-12 months out. If I trade again Im either going to try scalping or 3-5 year trades based on sectors that have under or over-performed during the previous 10 years. I shouldn’t make a prediction but sometimes bull runs can go way longer than expected, so 5000 on the S&P isn’t unreasonable.
yeah, sector plays are the safest way i've found to make market-beating gains. these bets tend to play out over a long period of time, where the patterns become more predictable.
one sector-based idea i've been interested in for a while is commodity supercycles. i'm hoping to one day understand how to to predict them, because commodity futures have the potential for some insane returns.
one sector-based idea i've been interested in for a while is commodity supercycles. i'm hoping to one day understand how to to predict them, because commodity futures have the potential for some insane returns.
JahBeeuS
Bluelight Crew
about to get blasted on $DISH $8c @ $.30 and $TSLA $290c @ $1.15 both weekly gambles.
Dish pisses me off the most because I held through near 100% profit waiting for news on the amazon deal they have. The news broke after hours and the underlying stock popped nearly 10% and into the money which would have been signifcantly more than 100% but by market open the next day the price dropped down and I'm currently at ~-70%.
Tesla was just a shot in the dark and is whatever but I also was up for a day on those too....
welp, at least my roth ira is up 20% in the past 3 months.
Dish pisses me off the most because I held through near 100% profit waiting for news on the amazon deal they have. The news broke after hours and the underlying stock popped nearly 10% and into the money which would have been signifcantly more than 100% but by market open the next day the price dropped down and I'm currently at ~-70%.
Tesla was just a shot in the dark and is whatever but I also was up for a day on those too....
welp, at least my roth ira is up 20% in the past 3 months.
does that include your cash contribution?
that sucks about dish, sounds like you got bit by FOMO
i doubled on SOXL but expecting a pullback in Q3, probably just going to hold for uhhhmm funsies...
JahBeeuS
Bluelight Crew
does that include your cash contribution?
lol, actually no. I've been somewhat active in managing it and looking for decent dividend companies near major lows. So far all of them have bounced nicely,
$OROVY (weird chinese freight ADR that has been paying out $40+/share divs for the past 2.5 years - currently trading at $82) even if they completely cut the dividend I'm up 30% on that. I can't get any current info or news on them really so kind of stuck waiting until early september to find out if that dividend is real.
$RTL - commercial retail REIT (I know kind of sketch being in commercial retail but it's relatively small position up ~16%
$CIM - REIT res mortgages :x up 40% pays 12% div
$COT oil and natural gas
$SENS - been swing trading it for a few years currently up 30%
$KEY - bank up 27% and 7% div
$MDB - another one I've been trading for a few years - pussied out and sold to cover my position when it hit $380 and now holding 25% of original investment as pure gains.
$AAP - Advanced Auto Parts - severely cut their dividend which punished the price but still managed to grab it near the bottom and it seems to be making decent recovery - hopefully they fix business to bring divs back up but if not still gained around 15%
$VOD - vodafone - think they've things sorted
Also, followed Buffett on some of the big Japanese banks $SMFG and $MUFG as I could only afford positions in 2 of them and had been in SMFG for a minute in my regular portfolio because of some familial ties.
Yea, I have just started dabbling in short term options and need to learn to take gains (or minimize losses) while the opportunity is there - but it was mostly just small bets that I had some extra cash sitting around and my wife would just spend on house plants anyways...
Hannah Capps
Let the Redeemed of the Lord Say So
- Joined
- Jan 29, 2006
- Messages
- 1,284
Controlled by the "devils that are" hypnotists to keep people distracted...
crazyhairman
Bluelighter
I can say during the march 2020 COVID crash us and some associates invested about 5k collectively in a couple energy stocks when they dipped down to 1.64 a share. Within a year they had rebounded to 36 a share. Netting almost a 34k gain for a couple of us. Two of the four of us stayed in and it's now trading at 57 a share. 
Only one of us even sounds remotely educated on the subject. My biggest earner atm seems to be PBR.
Only one of us even sounds remotely educated on the subject. My biggest earner atm seems to be PBR.
crazyhairman
Bluelighter
Also that Russian - Ukraine war is keeping us oil demand high in European markets. Something to keep an eye on. We made stupid gains during the first few months of the invasion and subsequent Russian energy ban. Natural gas during the winter months, also shipping during the last year of COVID and the first year of the Russian Ukraine war.
OPEC has slashed production of crude both domestically and abroad. American markets based both in the US and in South America have effectively filled the void of the 15% gap left by OPEC. Also know quite a few people in the oil and gas industry that are absolutely working their tails off.
I barely pay attention to it now but right when the war first kicked off our interests had a net worth of about 150k. Jumped up to about 600k in February of 2022.
That's what I'm living off of currently. I don't even have a job right now I quit and you would too if you had $400,000 in the bank seemingly from nothing.
Peace
OPEC has slashed production of crude both domestically and abroad. American markets based both in the US and in South America have effectively filled the void of the 15% gap left by OPEC. Also know quite a few people in the oil and gas industry that are absolutely working their tails off.
I barely pay attention to it now but right when the war first kicked off our interests had a net worth of about 150k. Jumped up to about 600k in February of 2022.
That's what I'm living off of currently. I don't even have a job right now I quit and you would too if you had $400,000 in the bank seemingly from nothing.
Peace
JahBeeuS
Bluelight Crew
Out of curiosity - how much have you sold or are you living off dividends?
crazyhairman
Bluelighter
I personally cashed it out totally.
gordonliddy
Bluelighter
I'm doing the same, good luck everyone!
I haven’t paid much attention to crypto since the end of 2021. I noticed both ATOM and Avalanche are under $10, do you think these coins will survive?
I remember reading these two cryptos were considered to have superior blockchain technology than most others, but I don’t know much about this stuff. ATOM is around $6.
Regarding stocks I’m thinking healthcare and utilities might start to rebound, especially if we get an elevated CPI number and another rate hike. I understand high rates hurt utility companies but XLU is around the low from last fall.
However, Im not buying anything, just speculating.
Pfizer is the cheapest it’s been in a long while as well.
GL
I remember reading these two cryptos were considered to have superior blockchain technology than most others, but I don’t know much about this stuff. ATOM is around $6.
Regarding stocks I’m thinking healthcare and utilities might start to rebound, especially if we get an elevated CPI number and another rate hike. I understand high rates hurt utility companies but XLU is around the low from last fall.
However, Im not buying anything, just speculating.
Pfizer is the cheapest it’s been in a long while as well.
GL
Xorkoth
Bluelight Crew
ATOM is the shit, it's my favoirte for new generation blockchains that might actually emerge as a long-term winner, due to its interoperability, rewards system for participating and staking, and the amount of projects that have or are building on their architecture. The price is an absolute steal right now. I've been sticking up, though the past month and a half I haven't looked at or thought about crypto, I had to buy a new car and some other stuff has been going on in my life.
AVAX is good, too, and has some big names in it, particularly Amazon Web Services. I like ATOM better but AVAX is a bigger "brand" and that counts for virtually everything in crypto if you're looking to make money, at least for the near term
AVAX is good, too, and has some big names in it, particularly Amazon Web Services. I like ATOM better but AVAX is a bigger "brand" and that counts for virtually everything in crypto if you're looking to make money, at least for the near term
gordonliddy
Bluelighter
Won't say I like the company....but the stock on the other hand? Oh la la!
Say, what would you think about an Obama presidency? Because if he comes back I'd be darned tempted to think that pharma would go way up.
Does that make any sense?
how goes things with your portfolio? equities are in a big slump now.
layoffs seem to be happening again, but more quietly now than before.
it seems like the effects of higher rates are finally starting to bite the overleveraged, in Canada you have to renew mortgage every five years so there's no escaping the rising rates. some have already seen their mortgage payments double, obviously not a lot of people can carry $6000/mo for 30 years ... and yet, prices haven't fallen that much!
layoffs seem to be happening again, but more quietly now than before.
it seems like the effects of higher rates are finally starting to bite the overleveraged, in Canada you have to renew mortgage every five years so there's no escaping the rising rates. some have already seen their mortgage payments double, obviously not a lot of people can carry $6000/mo for 30 years ... and yet, prices haven't fallen that much!
I went hard thru the portfolio last week and it's had a surprisingly decent year in terms of dividends; capital value about the same as February so holding its worth. Shifting a fair bit over to cash though as I'm finding some decent long-term 6%+ rates that I'm happy to bank in for a 5-yr stint