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  • LAVA Moderator: Shinji Ikari

the market: stocks, bonds, options, whatever

That would be awfully bad for the US. I'm not so sure that's going to happen though, at least not soon. Eventually, I would be very surprised if it doesn't switch to Chinese currency as the reserve, though. The US is in the middle of a slow implosion and China is on the rise.
 
End the reserve bank. and make our dollar backed by gold.
we know what to do. It's headed in the opposite direction.
 
I got killed on natural gas as well. I plan on only trying to short natural gas in the future.

I’m hopeful this weekend can cause a few freeze offs and we get a bounce like we did in December. Although, I would be shocked if it goes over 3.50 this winter and I do not expect a significant rebound this year unless something unforeseen happens.

Earnings were not terrible but the major tech companies and a few large banks missed and most of the guidance is neutral to negative. Overall I would say earnings were average to slightly below average and I expect the market to head lower starting tomorrow or next week. Considering mediocre earnings and the S&P gaining 8.5% already I don’t see this run lasting much longer.

Don’t take my advice, I’m often wrong. I seem to always be early when predicting a sell off.

Good luck.
 
Anyone doing the APE/AMC arbitrage trade? I'm very tempted.

www.reuters.com

Analysis: AMC sets unusual shareholder vote for meme stock sale approval

AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc , the movie theater operator that became a "meme stock" during the COVID-19 pandemic, has come up with an unusual way to win shareholder approval for stock sales that would raise cash, according to a regulatory filing and six corporate finance experts who reviewed it.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
 
Crypto has been interesting again lately, but I'm nearly sure this rally will end in either the same low, slightly lower low, or slightly higher low... that will determine how long until the next super cycle, but this aint it. Still, I have been DCAing into positions since I saw that things settled into a bottom, and have some 3x and 4x stuff right now
 
I did a quick run-through of all the earnings reported this year and here are the results:

According to the site I use companies actually did alright this quarter; 697 posted positive earnings - 450 posted negative - 296 met expectations.

However, most of these companies revised down before they reported, and many Large Caps had minimal or even negative growth yoy.

The bad part was forward guidance.

Only 250 companies raised guidance for the year. 247 lowered guidance, and 400 expect to meet expectations.

Overall 1193 companies have either neutral, lower, or no guidance. (I assume no guidance is bad guidance)

What this means for the market moving forward I am unsure. So far this year the market has rallied on almost all news, as if there is no such thing as bad news. I assume this will not last and all of this bad news will start getting priced in - It's just impossible for me to estimate what is 'priced in'.

With that said, I am still very bearish for 2023. I am going to predict the S&P ends the year right about where we are now at 4,000. (Range 3750-4250)

***Not Financial Advice I am often wrong, and so is everyone else***

Good luck
 
Crypto investment guide. Find most TVL and Volume Layer-1 solutions.
Go here: https://defillama.com/dexs/chains
Create list of top 10
Next go here: https://defillama.com/chains
Create list of top 10

Filter results to those which are in both lists.

Evenly divide investment amount into each native coin of that particular L1 chain (Etherium = ETH; Polygon = MATIC; etc.)

Combine with dollar-cost-averaging.
 
Madrus said:
Crypto investment guide. Find most TVL and Volume Layer-1 solutions.
Go here: https://defillama.com/dexs/chains
Create list of top 10
Next go here: https://defillama.com/chains
Create list of top 10

Filter results to those which are in both lists.

Evenly divide investment amount into each native coin of that particular L1 chain (Etherium = ETH; Polygon = MATIC; etc.)

Combine with dollar-cost-averaging.
Click to expand...

Solid advice. I will add, the AI narrative, and gaming, are going to be the big things in the next bull run, well they already are becoming so, but the crypto market is obviously way down still. I think this current rally will fake a lot of inexperienced crypto investors out of more money, and drop to new lows or maybe about the same low. But big picture, all these prices are fantastic. There are a number of AI and gaming crypto projects that are solid real-world use case technologies being developed. They're all very low cap still, too. I am personally sticking a certain percentage into those areas, too. But certainly, all top 30 L1 blockchains are probably going to do great... the top 10 ones, guaranteed (unless crypto really dies, but crypto is in the process of "growing up" into technologies that have nothing to do with currency. I believe it is virtually inevitable that crypto experiences another bull run and shifts all around again in the course of that. But I don't see it until 2024. I think this rally will fizzle out and confidence will drop again and extend this accumulation phase, until at least 2024).
 
I am not sure how I missed it last year but 'tanker' companies have performed incredibly well. I wasn't aware some of these companies existed.

Past Year:

$NAT +143%
$STNG +295%
$TNK +261%
$PXS +172%
$FRO +113%
 
Bitcoin

FqQqRznWYAMMxQR
 
Well, true, but for context:

z0kq237.png


Doesn't look so huge anymore, does it? :)

Crypto is massively volatile... it's just the nature of it. Not for the faint of heart.
 
Yeah, it was just a 1 day chart to show how quickly it dropped.

Wonder if Silvergate goes under, their stock SI was down 57% today, then senators now focusing on Binance too
 
Guys whats your best guess on a date for the stock market bottom, reasons are optional
 
I don't think it's ever bottomed while rates were still being raised, maybe once tho, so my opinion is once they stop raising then we'll have a bottom lower than October lows, and it could be a sharp drop with V shaped recovery

That's my guess at least

It could be a while if inflation stays high and rates need to go a lot higher. The conspiracy theorist in me says the Fed is misleading us and they want high inflation to inflate us out of our high debt to GDP ratio

With how inverted bond yields are we could see a bad recession too, so it all may take a while to play out
 
Thinking we need more pain after seeing this. FNKO is still $500M too, was $1B four months ago

FqUxnqfWIAEr5e5
 
"Top Wall Street analysts recommend NVDA for attractive returns"

Alright I'm short now. Bought NVDS, a short ETF
 
LUNRW could go up a lot if LUNW shares hold this level or higher for a few weeks

LUNRW are warrants to buy 1 share of LUNR at $11.50/share but don't become exercisable for another few weeks. Warrants are $0.80 and the shares are about $18 right now, so the warrants have an intrinsic value of $6.50 and if the stock doesn't go down the warrants will fill the gap between $0.80 and $6.50

This opportunity doesn't happen often
 
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