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  • LAVA Moderator: Shinji Ikari

the market: stocks, bonds, options, whatever

Crypto is seeing a bull trap rally. 99% sure it will crash again down to the low and perhaps even post new lows (not all time lows, but lows for this bear cycle). Me and all my crypto friends with experience predict the next bull run to be in 2024 sometime. Probably late 2024.

I'm stocking up now while prices are rock bottom. A little each paycheck. Mostly NEAR, SOL, AVAX, ATOM, DOT, MATIC, FTM... also VRA, and recently I bought $100 worth each of NAKA (Nakamoto games) and PBX (Paribus, the token for the NEAR/Aurora ecosystem DEX). These last 2 are microcap moonshots, but solid projects with good fundamentals, which could have 100x-1000x possibilities in the next bull run. Not gonna put more than $100 into either, but nice to hold a couple of longshot potentials like that.

My last $100 of USDT that is sitting around, I may try to open a long on something and try to multiply that money. Or a short, depending on when I get the balls to try futures again. As far as new buy-ins for my buy and hold portfolio... I'm waiting for this bull trap to crash out.
 
$SPY pretty much at the 200day right now and the 50day is inching closer to crossing the 200day, hmm kinda want to play it even tho I normally don't
 
Drawing as many trend lines as I can all over the chart so I feel smart. Gotta come into the trade highly confident
 
I pine away.
Smoke some herb. Think it over.
I thought about buying crypto just yesterday.
Then thought, it'll come back down.
Then buy.
 
I sold my only crypto play $MSTR last week at 196 I think then it ran to 240 before dropping today :(

So I did catch a lot of the Bitcoin move higher tho, or like half of it
 
GBTC is trading at a big discount to the value of the Bitcoin they hold, so that may be a good bet that it covers the gap at some point
 
ions said:
I pine away.
Smoke some herb. Think it over.
I thought about buying crypto just yesterday.
Then thought, it'll come back down.
Then buy.
Click to expand...

It's coming back down again, this is a bull trap. I expect the next bull run to be in 2024, sometime. After this little run dies and most people declare (once again) that "bitcoin is dead", and then sufficient time passes for everyone to stop thinking about crypto. Then it will go into the next bull run and stomp on 2021's all time highs.

I'm in accumulation mode, but not right now.
 
For the first time in my entire adult life I'm not waking up dope sick begging for $20 to not be sick and actually have money. I've been doing a lot of research on how to invest. I finally invested in QYLD recently which seems to be going well so far. Where does everyone do their research on what stocks are good?
 
Deru said:
Where does everyone do their research on what stocks are good?
Click to expand...

Motley Fool publishes pretty good analysis of stocks they like. After doing my own due diligence, I've picked a few Fool recommendations and they've all turned out well.

I like covered call ETFs (like QYLD) for predictable income but i think just going long on the underlying index with a low MER fund is probably the smarter play for long-term growth, especially with something like NASDAQ 100 where price can really surge in some years.

For my own exposure to tech, I try and balance it with infra/energy/utility ETFs. These are recession-proof anchors that pay good dividends. For U.S. exposure, I'd look at companies benefiting from the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act.
 
Electrum1 said:
GBTC is trading at a big discount to the value of the Bitcoin they hold, so that may be a good bet that it covers the gap at some point
Click to expand...

Yeah, I've been toying with that one for a while. If it were possible to get pure short Bitcoin exposure at no cost, I would do it in a heartbeat. But the short-Bitcoin ETFs are futures-based and that comes with carry costs, so if the discount lasted long enough, you could come out negative even if the gap eventually disappeared.

P.S. Odd Lots just had an episode on GBTC, and how people lost whacks of money betting on it when it still had a premium-to-NAV.
 
Man, natural gas just keeps going down. When the Freeport plant reopens it should get a bounce but at the rate it's dropping I'll need perfect timing to make anything. BOIL could be at like $3 by then, lol
 
Guy from The Big Short, or Cramer?

I shorted TSLA today

Fn12G-CWIAQZdek
 
american indices still seem to be struggling, feels like america will have the biggest hangover from the free money era ending.

asian and canadian markets are growing at a respectable rate.

sun is always shining somewhere.
 
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