BTC is the long term, safe play. Not the day trade to 10x your investment in a week, play. Just invest and wait it out. If you can't handle watching your investment decrease in value before increasing, then investments in general are not the right move for you.
No matter how much an investment goes down, you don't lose money unless you sell. Everything is pointing to BTC continuing to raise. Stop overthinking it so much. Just get in, and let it sit.
My sources are saying we look ready to move up again by about $6k, but if it doesn't do that, we'll consolidate and potentially dip to $43k before making that move.
Either way, markets go up and down, and BTC is one of the most volatile investments you can make. You have to be willing to hold.
Yeah I guess I just still don't really believe fully in BTC, it's too volatile to be a currency or a store of value, right now, IMO. I think a lot of it is hype. I feel more confidence in stock ETFs for long-term, stable but substantial gains, followed by cannabis industry stocks. These things are backed by real companies and products and services.
Reason I got scared on my RIOT (the BTC mining stock) is that I put $2k in, half of which was on margin, which means I was borrowing it. Meaning my gains and losses would be doubled on my actual money. It was a bold (read: stupid) move, but I wasn't willing to risk it once I saw it going down too much. And if it dipped too much I would have a margin call which means I'd need to fund more money from my bank to meet it, or else they would automatically liquidate my entire portfolio to pay it.
Ultimately buying on margin was dumb for such a volatile stock. It reiterates my belief that day trading is not my game, I'm looking for long term holds.
I will put some percentage of my portfolio into BTC as you're probably right that it will eventually go up way to $250k or so, since supply is finite. But very few investors go all in or even a large percentage into bitcoin and I don't think I will either. I'd rather be 80% in ETFs... some higher-risk ETFs I am buying positions have an average yearly return of 54% for the past 10 years, with little risk... if the market crashes, it is a bad year but there are still gains. The past 365 days with one of my ETFs has shown a 169% increase. Lower-key ETFs average 15-20% return per year. So let's say average 25% per year across them all to be conservative. In 10 years, you have nearly 10xed your money, with little risk. And then the other 20% you put into single stocks which is riskier but has the potential for huge gains, especially if you invest in emerging industries (like cannabis). When full legalization happens I could 10x my cannabis investments, or more, in a year, then cash out and put that in ETFs. ETFs and mutual funds gain steadily, forever, and it's not putting all your eggs in one basket like bitcoin, or individual stocks. Bitcoin, I'm pretty sure, will balloon upward again, but $44k right now to maybe $60k this year... 50% gain. Then let's say it gets to $250k, which it may, or may not. Bitcoin may ultimately end up losing support, and if it does, then if you're heavily invested in it, your investment ended up going nowhere.
So much of crypto is hype. The underlying investment is a nothing product, it is only worth anything because people think it is. Whereas investing in companies and markets is investing in goods and services and businesses. I would be wary of putting all your eggs in the crypto basket, or letting yourself get too caught up in the hype. People talk about it being a store of value, which it is, and about it becoming a reserve currency, which I doubt. it's too volatile to be a reserve currency. Unless it can get to where the price doesn't wildly swing and crash every few years, it will just be an investment based on hype. And the chances of it becoming a widely used currency are slim, IMO. I mean technically it is decentralized, but massive corporations and governments own the means to mine it (run the network) so it isn't really. And it can only process like 5 transactions per second, and transactions cost quite a bit of money to execute. Last time I sent BTC to pay for drugs, I had to pay almost $10 to send $330 and it took over an hour. You're never going to use bitcoin at the store. And since every sale and purchase changes the price, it really isn't suitable for currency. These are the reasons why I think a lot of it is hype to generate FOMO. Some whales are manipulating the crypto markets heavily and raking in money from small investors. Every time it spikes there are legions of people shouting Bitcoin!! from the rooftops, oh my god Bitcoin is going to moon, it's the answer, you're missing out. I'm really wary of that.