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the nfl 11-12 playoff picture prediction thread

alasdairm

alasdairm

Moderator: S&T
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ok. let's go.

afc
afc east: new england patriots (1)
afc south: houston texans (2)
afc north: pittsburgh steelers (3)
afc west: oakland raiders (4)
afc wildcard: baltimore ravens (5)
afc wildcard: new york jets (6)

nfc
nfc north: green bay packers (1)
nfc west: san francisco 49ers (2)
nfc south: new orleans saints (3)
nfc east: dallas cowboys (4)
nfc wildcard: chicago bears (5)
nfc wildcard: detroit lions (6)

i can't find a run-down of which seed plays which seed in the wild-card round - i assume #3 plays #5 and #4 plays #6? then the #1 seed plays the lowest winning seed from the wildcard round and #2 plays the highest? can somebody confirm that's right and i'll fill in the rest of my predictions.

alternately, we can just predict the winners round by round - what do you think?

afc wild card round
steelers vs. ravens
jets vs. raiders

nfc wild card round
bears vs. saints
lions vs. cowboys

afc divisional round
patriots vs.
texans vs.

nfc divisional round
green bay vs.
san francisco vs.

afc championship


nfc championship


superbowl

what say you?

alasdair
 
afc
afc north: Ravens (1)
afc south: Patriots (2)
afc east:Texans (3)
afc west: Raiders (4)
afc wildcard: Steelers (5)
afc wildcard: Jets (6)


Notice how the the Bills and Bengals don't make the playoffs. Steelers need Roflburgers back to be a real contender.

nfc
nfc north: Packers (1)
nfc west: 49ers (2)
nfc south: Saints (3)
nfc east: Giants (4)
nfc wildcard: Cowboys (5)
nfc wildcard: Falcons (6)

Losing Cutler hurts the Bears, and I hate the Cowboys.
 
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yeah, Ali, that's how it works in the NFL Playoffs. it goes by seeding, and doesn't blindly follow the initial brackets, if that makes sense

I know the Patriots's schedule is easy - but first seed? you know Pittsburgh has the tie-breaker, right? it would be a travesty if the team with its defense ranked dead last got the top AFC seed, imo

also, the Matt Schaub is out for at least 4 games for the Texans and Jay Cutler is out for the Bears until if they reach the playoffs. so everybody keep this in mind :)
 
Care said:
Notice how the the Bills, Bengals and Jets don't make the playoffs. Steelers need Roflburgers back to be a real contender.
Click to expand...

and what do you mean they need him back? although Big Ben hurts his thumb, he isn't planning on missing any games. say what you will about him, he has played through so many damn injuries that I'm 90 percent sure he isn't going anywhere

also, unless you have some inside scoop, what you are implying hasn't been reported. am I missing something here?
 
^ He broke his thumb which makes me worried about him playing at 100% for the rest of the season. He is having a career year and I think the Steelers need him to be playing like that in order to have a chance of meeting their expectations this year.
 
axl blaze said:
yeah, Ali, that's how it works in the NFL Playoffs. it goes by seeding, and doesn't blindly follow the initial brackets, if that makes sense

I know the Patriots's schedule is easy - but first seed? you know Pittsburgh has the tie-breaker, right? it would be a travesty if the team with its defense ranked dead last got the top AFC seed, imo

also, the Matt Schaub is out for at least 4 games for the Texans and Jay Cutler is out for the Bears until if they reach the playoffs. so everybody keep this in mind :)
Click to expand...

schaub is placed on IR
 
axl blaze said:
yeah, Ali, that's how it works in the NFL Playoffs. it goes by seeding, and doesn't blindly follow the initial brackets, if that makes sense
Click to expand...
cool.

i've been thinking about this and predicting the playoffs all the way through up-front is too much. let's predict it round by round:

regular season division winners plus wildcards
wildcard round
divisional round
conferences championships
superbowl
axl blaze said:
I know the Patriots's schedule is easy - but first seed? you know Pittsburgh has the tie-breaker, right? it would be a travesty if the team with its defense ranked dead last got the top AFC seed, imo
Click to expand...
not at all. the rule is the team with the best record not the team with the best record unless they have the worst defensive stats. i think they're going to finish with the best record.
axl blaze said:
also, the Matt Schaub is out for at least 4 games for the Texans and Jay Cutler is out for the Bears until if they reach the playoffs. so everybody keep this in mind :)
Click to expand...
yep - i forgot about schaub. i may have to revisit my predictions.

ok, let's leave this discussion open for the remainder of this football week (12) and then get it going on tuesday 29th - "regular season division winners plus wildcards" predictions need to be in by the start of the game on thursday december 1st.

agreed? thoughts?

alasdair
 
I still like the texans the get the #2 seed even without Schaub.
 
they could do it. once again I will say that Leinart doesn't have to try much because the Texans run a basic pro-style offense (much like USCw), along with tough defense and a solid running game. they don't really need him to over-perform here, like Arizona needed when they had him

but I do find chinks in your logic. essentially, you are saying that you like the Texans to win out, without their QB, while you think the Steelers are going to drop a good amount of games (for Steelers fans) at the end of the regular season. the same point could be made for a Roflsburger-less Steelers, due to the points I just made for the Texans. even if Big Ben is out, they still have a good chance of winning out because their remaining schedule is so easy; and need I remind me you about last year where the Steelers went 4-1 against good teams without Big Ben?
 
The Steelers running game and defense does not look as dominant to me this year as it was last year IMO. And you have games against the Bengals and the Niners left, both lose-able games. Texans schedule looks less scary than the Steelers at this point IMO.

That being said I maintain my right to change my picks until the deadline.
 
Care said:
That being said I maintain my right to change my picks until the deadline.
Click to expand...
sure - we'll get going on 29th (after week 12) and we'll have about 3 days to lock in our first round picks.

alasdair
 
Pander Bear said:
bitches don't know about my dirty birdz
Click to expand...

dont worry we'll get in easy. We got a pretty easy schedule coming up for rest of season and we win tiebreaker with the lions who might have hardest schedule coming up no way they get in. Then bears cutler out for season they might miss.
 
Care said:
The Steelers running game and defense does not look as dominant to me this year as it was last year IMO. And you have games against the Bengals and the Niners left, both lose-able games. Texans schedule looks less scary than the Steelers at this point IMO.
Click to expand...

great points as always, Care. and trust me, I can take off my black & yellow pair of glasses off long enough to realize that your points ring true

however, I do have faith in my team consistently topping adversity. if it ain't the run game, then it's the play of the offensive line (it's amazing that the Pitt o-line isn't as bad as it usually is btw). the defense is still great imo, and will only get better once our Number One sack-machine LaMarr Woodley gets back on the field with that footbaw-cyborg James Harrison

also, the run game may be lacking due to Rashard Mendenhall, but his backups (namely Redman, what a beast) have been playing surprisingly well

however, all these problems are hurdled because Big Ben is once again having a record-setting year. if Aaron Rodgers wasn't having a monster season, and Big Ben's teammates were playing a bit better, he would be up for serious MVP contention. hell, he's in that MVP discussion right now due to his stats alone

plus, their schedule isn't really that tough at all. only 49ers loom. I'm confident in my team against the Bengals, because we already beat them at their place. Cinci is great, but a young team and just about a year or two away from being AFC North heavyweights
 
axl blaze said:
however, all these problems are hurdled because Big Ben is once again having a record-setting year. if Aaron Rodgers wasn't having a monster season, and Big Ben's teammates were playing a bit better, he would be up for serious MVP contention. hell, he's in that MVP discussion right now due to his stats alone
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take off the rosy glasses, jim.

roethlisberger is outside the top 5 in every meaningful qb stat: qb rating; completion percentage; total yards; yards per game and touchdowns.

he is however top 5 in two categories - 2nd in being sacked and he's 5th in fumbles lost.

:)

alasdair
 
however he is leading the AFC in the stat that only really counts - wins. I don't get it though, are you trying desperately to pull some kind of "Big Ben = Tim Tebow" sort of angle? and if you can't follow the MVP ascertains that Big Ben has been getting, than a little bias yourself has to be surely seeping in your logic. perhaps it was the last time Big Ben went up against the more mainstream, Hollywood-like Tom Brady?

because last I checked the QB that shined the most in that Pittsburgh VS NE game was in fact, Big Ben - not Tom Brady
 
when you're talking about mvp - which you were - the number of team wins is less relevant.

for playoffs, sure, obviously, seeding is important.

to become mvp, however, individual stats like qb rating, completion percentage, total yards, yards per game and touchdowns are much more relevant and ben doesn't match up with rodgers, brees, et. al. there...

alasdair
 
I would still say to be the MVP your team needs to be at least in the top 4 of overall wins. I mean, Adrian Peterson is having a monster year (well I think he just finally got injured), however nobody would be foolish enough to put him in serious NFL MVP contention because his team lacks wins, bottom line
 
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