Yeah, Christie was stupid to tell Rob she was up in the air. Still, it was a great episode. I had wanted Christie to win, but after the way she played that I am glad she lost. She was stupid and deserved to lose.
Here was where I think she screwed up: She said that she thought that she had a better chance of going further with Heidi and Jenna, but she had a better chance of being the last girl around staying with Rob. Meaning she figured that staying with Rob, she was going to be voted out 4th. STUPID!!! Frankly, I think Rob would have axed Butch before Christie, as the worst person to be in the final 2 against. And maybe Christie herself could have allied with Butch at that point, pointing out that Rob and Matt seemed pretty tight.
Anyway, the point is Christie was wrong to assume that staying with Rob guaranteed that she would get to the final 4, but no further. I think staying with Rob's alliance at least through this particular vote was the better chance for Christie not just to be the last girl, but to go the furthest overall in the game.
I mean, allying with Jenna and Heidi (1) only gave a 50/50 shot of carrying this particular vote since it would be 3 v. 3 and if the tie breaker went against the girls, Christie would have really sealed her fate. And even if it didn't, that alliance could ONLY get Christie to the final 3. At that point, though, clearly Heidi and Jenna would side together and Christie would ONLY get to the final 2 if she won immunity.
Anyway, looking at it from all angles, I think Christie really was wrong not just to tell Rob she was being indecisive, but to actually BE indecisive. Staying with Rob was the 100% only smart move this particular vote.
So, anyway, Christie waffled because she reasoned that even though she hated the other 2 girls, she would get further with them. DUMB DUMB DUMB!! For this lapse in judgment, this failure to look ahead and see she had better odds staying with Rob, so that she should have not given Rob reason to doubt her, she deserved to be voted off.
In a way, it is similar to Deanna. She was playing good. She was manipulative, but she was using it to her advantage. Until she stupidly got cocky and thought she could sway Heidi and Jenna against Alex. STUPID STUPID STUPID.
Anyway, both these girls did it to themselves.
Just like Alex. He basically told Rob, "Of the 4 of us, you are the least close to the others and so you will be voted out at that point unless you win immunity." WTF??? Honestly, I think Alex, Heidi or Jenna might have switched just like Rob if they were confronted with the fact that, of their 4-person alliance, they were the least liked and so the most likely to be voted out when it got to the final 4. They blame Rob, but they can't say for sure they would have acted differently...they were fortunate enough to be so close to each other that it was not an issue.
So, anyway, I don't blame Rob for anything he is doing. He is playing the game great. I especially like the way he confronts wrenches that are thrown into his plans. I am positive he expected to go to the final 2 with Deanna. She was the only other "bright" player who was really understanding the dynamics. She was not well-liked, generally. Rob must have shat bricks when she suicided by her stupid behavior. Deanna's mistake not only cost her, it made Rob's task more difficult.
But Rob survived, next picked Jenna or Matt as the least likable to take to the final 2 (probably Jenna at that point). But then he realizes he is likely not getting to the final 3 if he stays with that alliance, so he switches and pegs Matt as the person he wants in the final 2. Then Matt does something relatively nice, that probably elevates him above Rob in people's minds...
Anyway, at that point Rob's task looked hopeless.... Get to the end with a person less likable to the jury than you... At that point, I might have thrown in the towel. But instead, he sucks it up. Realizes now Jenna probably is his only choice for the final 2. He tries to make it happen AND JENNA REFUSES.
So much for that... and she even puts some doubt in the other members of Rob's alliance. Crap. Then, Christie waffles, another problem, a risk that she wll join the girls to vote against Rob. Double Crap. Then, miraculously, Rob conceives a way to turn all of this to his advantage... Form a new alliance against Christie!! BRILLIANT!! I mean, I think I'm a bright guy, but I did not think of that. The most inspired maneuver ever in Survivor history IMO.
Not only does this maneuver keep Jenna in the game, it puts Rob in a good position to get to the final 2 with Jenna JUST LIKE HE WANTS! And it may repair some of the ill will Heidi and Jenna hold towards him, which cannot hurt.
Wow, I bet Rob would be a great chess player.
The question is: Now what does Rob do? I see 2 choices:
1. Try to keep his 4-person alliance and vote out Butch (the obvious course of action, since the alliance is already formed and since Rob can probably easily convince the others that Butch is the most likable, and therefore the last person you want to be against in the final 2)
2. Try to get Butch and Matt together to vote off Heidi.
Both have problems. Under the first course of action, the fear is Heidi and Jenna may learn from Rob and approach Butch themselves to join and vote out Rob. Under the second course of action, the fear is that Heidi will win immunity, and then you are either stuck having your 3-man alliance vote off Jenna (who is really your only hope in the final 2) or you have to do some quick changing of alliances AFTER the immunity competition.
I favor the 2nd course of action. Heidi only has a 1 in 5 chance of winning immunity, and I don't think Jenna would give it up again if she wins it. So probably you can get Heidi out, leaving Rob, Matt, Butch and Jenna in the final 4.
At that point, it seems to me that it would be a piece of cake for Rob to point out to Jenna and Matt that Butch is the last person that any of them want to be against in the final 2, so unless Butch gets immunity (unlikely) he should be voted out.
Now, at this point, Rob has basically GUARANTEED himself a spot in the final 2. Because at this point, whoever wins immunity simply picks who moves on. If Rob wins, he picks Jenna and moves on. If Jenna or Matt wins, THEY WOULD HAVE TO PICK ROB AS THE PERSON THEY HAVE THE BEST SHOT AGAINST IN THE FINAL 2!! See how great that works?
Anyway, this was one of the best episodes because Rob really impressed me. It was not just making obvious alliances, it was like a whole paradigm shift in how alliances are made.
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Since I am bored, let me elaborate on how I think the jury would vote if the final two were either (1). Matt and Rob or (2) Jenna and Rob:
Dave
1. Matt ?
2. Rob ?
The way I see it, Dave respects athleticism and competetiveness and for a long time he saw the game as men v. women. Though he got close to Heidi, he did not hang out with Jenna as long. Frankly, I think he will forgive Rob's betrayal as good competitiveness and he will not want to had a million dollars to a girl who has no real survival skills as he sees it. (like last survivor when that Rob betrayed the navy girl, but she respected his game play and voted for him anyway).
Deena
1. Rob
2. Rob
Deena screwed herself over, I don't think she sees it as a betrayal by Rob. She had the most in common with Rob and I think would vote for him against anyone.
Alex
1. Matt
2. Jenna
Alex will not vote for Rob against anyone, particularly Jenna.
Christie
1. Matt ?
2. Rob
I think Christie would vote for Matt to get back at her perception that Rob betrayed her, though really she should realize (1) she asked for it by threatening to betray their alliance and (2) matt also voted against her, and so equally betrayed her. Also, she did keep saying Matt was creepy, so maybe some of that would sway her...she might vote Rob over Matt, not sure. As for Rob v. Jenna, I am confident she'd not want Jenna--that empty headed smiling model--to get the $$ over Rob.
Heidi
1. Matt
2. Jenna
I think Heidi harbors enough anger at Rob to vote against him no matter who he is with, particularly Jenna.
Butch
1. Matt
2. Rob ?
He keeps fishing with Matt, probably closest to Matt, so that is easy. As for Rob v. Jenna...Well, Butch really isn't interacting with Jenna at all, so I think he'd go with Rob. The question mark is, when (and if) Butch is voted out, will it be in a way that makes him furious with Rob? If so, he may vote for Jenna.
Matt
1. n/a
2. Rob ?
As between Rob and Jenna, I think he will vote Rob for the same reason as Dave. Athletic guy who, in the end, will chalk up betrayal as smart play by Rob and prefer to reward that play than to hand the $$ to Jenna (who is probably perceived as undeserving) just to spite Rob. (Note guys tend to be less vindictive in this way.)
Jenna
1. Matt
2. n/a
Jenna will certainly vote against Rob in any circumstance. She cares more about hurting Rob than whether the person who wins deserves it.
As you can see from my guestimates, I think Rob simply cannot win against Matt. However, he has a very good chance (not a guarantee) against Jenna.
GO ROB!!!
Another interesting point... It looks to me like Jenna is really the person who cannot possibly win this thing because there is no one the jury thinks might find to be less deserving of the $$ than her.
~psychoblast~
