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The Official NCAA Football 2005 thread

michigan ooc schedule - nothern illinois, nd, eastern michigan
ohio state ooc schedule - miami(oh), sandiego state, texas

not as impressive

your MAC conference went 1-10 this weekend.

and just for the record, penn states ooc schedule is pathetic - usf, cincy, c. michigan. and they don't even play um.

acc- 7 teams in the top25
big 12 -4
pac10-3
big10-4
sec-4(all top ten)

the big 10 has 3 schools(and i still think iowa who plays ball state and northern iowa will loose 2 games, having to play both um and ohio state) the acc/sec are much deeper conferences. hands down.
 
^haven't you learned yet that early polls mean jack shit? Well...except for No.1 anyway. :D

I have a good feeling 5 pac-10 teams will make top 25 appearances this year...possibly 6.
 
BlueAdonis said:
Interesting nobody is mentioning Oklahoma, are they pretty much a write off now?
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ummm not when you posted this, but certainly now;)

im stoked to see the bucks nationally televised this weekend

michigan ooc schedule - nothern illinois, nd, eastern michigan
ohio state ooc schedule - miami(oh), sandiego state, texas

not as impressive
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which one is less impressive? people carry on like this every year and nothing changes....major schools play fruity nonconference schedules, its a fucking fact of life. whats funny to me is that the nonconference schedules of OSU and UM look pretty much identical- two gimmes and a national powerhouse.... to be fair, notre dame is a lesser opponent than texas.
 
E-ric said:
So Notre Dame this weekend is just a speed bump??

Go in with that attitude and you'll get beat... Michigan should win, but ND is no cupcake..
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Notre Dame on the road would scare me. Notre Dame at home will not be a significant problem.
 
If the Noles can find a way to manufacture a halfway decent offense, they are gonna be a beast. Their defense against the Canes Monday night was brutal.
 
^lucking out on 3 botched field goals is not my definition of a beast-like defense. And this is Miami just starting with a brand new QB. It's not like the 'Canes have had the offensive capability like they did during their last championship run. Do they have the potential this year? Perhaps...but the same was said during the Brock Berlin era.

And truthfully, FSU's defense has never been a question mark. The offense, however...has been since Weinke left. I'm going to go with recent history and say the 'noles don't find that spark on the offensive side.
 
Both teams sputtered on the offensive end.

I would venture that both teams had opportunities to put up a total of about 20 points, but let's face it, a missed 47-yarder in college ain't exactly what I would term a "botched" attempt.
 
what about the other two? :) I'll make it more politically correct for ya about the 48-yarder. It was a "missed opportunity." ;)

On that note however, if a top college program doesn't have a kicker who can consistently boot 40+ yard field goals...they're going to have some big issues with that.
 
Last one was clearly botched, the holder should have been able to handle it no doubt, but considering both the pressure of the situation and the fact that the snapping/holding team was new, it wasn't surprising. Well, it was surprising, sure, but not out of the question.

The other one was a 39-yarder I believe. Botched on the kicker's part.

Still, that's only a total of 16 potential points if you're going to count the 47-yarder as a "should make" (which I don't really think you can in college). The Noles essentially had the same potential point opportunities as the Canes and just converted on one more of them.
 
LapDawg said:
what about the other two? :) I'll make it more politically correct for ya about the 48-yarder. It was a "missed opportunity." ;)

On that note however, if a top college program doesn't have a kicker who can consistently boot 40+ yard field goals...they're going to have some big issues with that.
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Well I would agree with that up to the 40-45 yard range, but when you edge up towards the half-century mark in college I think you're clearly sliding over into the <50% probability.

Besides, Miami's kicker only had a 62% conversion rate on ALL of his attempts last year, and he is a returning veteran. Kinda says something about the reliability of college field goal kicking if a top program like Miami found that conversion rate satisfactory up until Monday night's game, don'tcha think?
 
huntmich said:
Notre Dame on the road would scare me. Notre Dame at home will not be a significant problem.
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since nd is returning 10 out of 11 starters O you should be... oh yea by the way who is the one person who wasnt the starter last year? darius walker i think you might remember him from last year.
 
so my statement stands then about the issues of having an incosistent kicker. While it's best to lose early, it very well may cost them a shot at their primary goal for every season.

And Peattie was 4-6 from 40-49 last season w/ a career high of 49. I personally would say it's a <50% chance when we're going 50+, rather than 45. There's something to be said about the mental difference between 40 and 50 yarders.
 
LapDawg said:
And Peattie was 4-6 from 40-49 last season w/ a career high of 49. I personally would say it's a <50% chance when we're going 50+, rather than 45. There's something to be said about the mental difference between 40 and 50 yarders.
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Since we're using Peattie as the representative sample of the average college kicker, given that he was 0-3 on attempts of 50+, you're really going out on a limb there in saying it's a <50% chance from that range. Care to make a prediction on the sun rising tomorrow? ;)

Two of those in that 4-6 stat were 41 and 42 yards. Otoh, if you look scrutinize the attempts that were a little closer to the 45-49 range, Peattie was 2-4 (misses from 43 and 44).

Again, given that he was 0-3 on 50+, I think it's safe to conclude that the conversion probability starts to dip <50% somewhere in the 45-49 range. I agree with you that there's a mental barrier at the 50 mark, but one shouldn't expect a conversion probability to hover above 50% in the 45-49 range and then plummet all the way to 0% just because of the addition of one measly yard. There's not THAT much to be said for the mental barrier.
 
Maybe it's me, but perhaps you're getting a little too focused on these numbers for Peattie. I would definitely not give anyone a problem for believing there's a significant drop-off in expectancy rate from 45-49 to 50-55. I think the mental difference is certainly capable of explaining that issue, given the expectancy of a 40+ yarder to be converted vs. the hope of a 50+ yarder going through. The simple idea of 50 yards or longer creates more doubt than anything below the 50-yard range. Whether it's fair or not, anything below 50 should be expected to be converted more than half the time at the college level, at least in my opinion. Or maybe the Pac-10 typically has better kickers? :D Stop trying to excuse inferior kickers from failing at their job, ACC boy. ;)

And I have to believe an average college kicker can consistently make anything 40 yards and below. Apparently Peattie's taken a step back from last year.
 
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Hey, I just run the numbers, hoss. No excuses for my ACC standard bearer's historical field goal impotence here.

Now it may very well be that Peattie is not a fair representative sample, I don't know, but it just don't add up that a mental barrier should account for such a precipitous drop in conversion probability from a 49-yard attempt to one from 50. 50+% to <25% even? Nahhh, I think it's more a case of the expectation not matching up to the numbers in that 45-49 crossover range.
 
But what numbers are you running? Just Peattie's or do you actually have NCAA stats ready to show that 45-49 is a <50% conversion rate on avg.? If so...please present them. Since you're so interested in Peattie...shouldn't you recognize that in your famed 45-49 zone he was 2-for-2 last year?

Maybe college kickers aren't as inaccurate as you suggest.
 
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fozzy said:
since nd is returning 10 out of 11 starters O you should be... oh yea by the way who is the one person who wasnt the starter last year? darius walker i think you might remember him from last year.
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Yea great, but the only reason ND won last year was because we had a true-freshman quarterback playing his first road game ever. Our offense is going to walk all over ND, and all our D needs to do is make a couple stops. If I were a gambling man, I'd bet the farm.
 
Its a good time to bet the farm in this country wtih all the places open to refugees..

Having only a 7 point spread is appealing, but it shows lots of betters are giving respect to notre dame..

I wouldnt touch that game myself... michigan is good, but notre dame played great the other night in a hostile environment..
 
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