It has always been hard to tell with Bitcoin, even moreso now that there is systemic risk posed by Tether.
IMHO the situation feels a lot like the dotcom bubble. I think there will be a price trigger that causes Tether to unravel and that will in turn deflate the Bitcoin bubble. Then, Bitcoin could be at <$10k again...
Did you read this article:
Cryptocurrency Is a Giant Ponzi Scheme
“ Tether has become integral to the functioning of global crypto markets. The
majority of Bitcoin trades are now conducted in Tether, 70 percent by volume. By comparison, only 8 percent of trade volume is conducted in real dollars, with the remainder being other crypto-to-crypto pairs. Many industry skeptics, and even proponents, see this as a systemic risk and ticking time bomb. The whole system relies on traders actually being able to exchange tethers for real cash or — far more commonly in practice — other traditional cryptocurrencies that can be sold for cash on banked exchanges like Coinbase or Gemini, both headquartered in the United States.”
“ Should faith in Tether falter, we could see its peg to the dollar collapse in a flash. This would be a doomsday scenario for crypto markets, with investors holding or trading crypto assets on unbanked exchanges unable to “cash” out, since there was never any cash there to begin with, only stablecoins. This would almost certainly cause a liquidity crisis on banked exchanges as well, as investors rush to cash out their crypto anywhere possible amid cratering prices, and banked exchanges processing far less volume would almost certainly not be able to pick up the slack.”
“ There is no reason to have any faith in Tether. Tether’s peg to the dollar was initially predicated on the claim that the digital currency was fully backed by actual cash reserves — a dollar held in reserve for every tether issued — though this was later shown to be a
lie. The company has since continuously revised down claims about how much cash they keep in reserve. Their latest public
attestation on the matter, from March of last year, claimed to be holding only 3 percent of their reserves in cash. The rest was held in “cash equivalents,” mostly commercial paper — essentially IOUs from corporations that may or may not exist, given that reputable actors trading in commercial paper
don’t appear to be doing any business with Tether.“
Im reading more about credit/debit spreads and iron condors. I am thinking spreads will be the best way to approach the market once it settles.
And starting to lose hope in psychedelic stocks. Hopefully ATAI will make some kind of move soon and avoid ending up like the others below $5. I should probably just take the loss and buy back in at a lower price.
finance.yahoo.com
