• LAVA Moderator: Mysterier

the market: stocks, bonds, options, whatever

Agree.

Not sure if the market going to crash yet, but yesterday looked a bit like distribution

In any case worst place to be if market goes down is a recent IPO that reached 60x or 80x P/s the day was listed, lol, it can go down 50% in a couple vof weeks
 
This is the best one I saw so far -

fake^3.ai

lol.

airbnb starts trading today. But with the pandemic and travel down, the future looks grim for them.
 
Agree.

Not sure if the market going to crash yet, but yesterday looked a bit like distribution

In any case worst place to be if market goes down is a recent IPO that reached 60x or 80x P/s the day was listed, lol, it can go down 50% in a couple vof weeks
Lol, finally bought a small amount of C3, target around $140-150, 16 billion market cap
 
$125 already... It should get to $140-150 tomorrow, impressive momentum, I am seeing it getting to $150-160, but Iwill take profits sooner than that

Another much safer option is Salesforce, got crushed recently and is catching some heat again, I guess should get to $250 by January/February. I am heavily bought in this one.

Of course, I might be quite wrong, never trust your money to some random person opinions
 
Good words to live by usual-suspect. I have made an absolute killing on Bitcoin, but hesitate to give even close friends advice, just in case I'm wrong :unsure:
Even with the best advice, you don't know what those other people are going to do with their money, are they going to play small, are they going to get carried away and end betting the ranch?

Adrenaline is one addictive drug, and if people gets high on adrenaline on your advice they will end doing stupid things.

It took me years of being in the market to finally get bored and understand that they are a boring thing to allow you to make money under controlled risk, and even then, you have to be willing to suffer and take the loss when it comes, and feel like an idiot for months/years until finally things come to happen like you expected, or you realise your expectations were based on wrong assumptions and is time to move on to another asset.
 
Doordash dumped 5% already. I don't trust IPO anymore. Let it settle and employee lockup expire before true price is known. Airbnb doesn't seem to be trading yet.

Better style for me (pre trump removal) -

40% ITOT
10% IXUS
35% TLT
15% AGG

Until january at least. Bonds will hedge (the whole damn market flocks to TLT on dips). Then going in deep late january / early feb on various equities (maybe like 25% spy, though) Can't have my money sitting around in cash collecting 1% bullshit interest.

I used a similar style 2016-2018, sold early december 2018. Let the blood settle. Then january 2019 went all bull stocks. SOXL and TQQQ were my biggest gainers. SOXL especially. Got in like $75 and shit ran to $300 in under 12 months.

Anything more than a 7% correction before january will sell itot / ixus and wait.

Why I am hoping for a nasty correction. The bounce off it will be in insane.

BTC is going nowhere. It was worth more 3+ years ago. The market cap is all fake (most BTC holders are sitting on margin, like 10x margins at bitfinex)
 
BTC is going nowhere. It was worth more 3+ years ago. The market cap is all fake (most BTC holders are sitting on margin, like 10x margins at bitfinex)
Is that the Tether thing I hear repeated here and there? I don't get what that has to do with BTC...

BTC holders have their coin in cold wallets, and institutional buyers are starting to buy more and more. BTC is a must have in any long term portfolio (a small %, don't sell the house) I have no doubt in 10 years price is going to be much higher.

 
Tether is just some made up coin bitfinex made. Its like magically creating money. Same for other stable coins. True USD, Real USD, or any other crap. When they introduced tether btc surged. Tether market cap like 20 billion. And there are countless made up stable coins that were just produced out of thin air and valued at $1. Total scam man.

Would be like a broker having their own money printer and buying equities.

Also Bitfinex allows 10x margin. You buy 1 BTC, now you own 10. All on credit. Meaning most BTC volume is fake.

Blockchain here to stay, BTC is not. Will eat my words if it hits 25k. Won't even cross 20k without some serious buying as 20k sell wall is the biggest I have seen.

Doesn't change the fact it was worth more 3+ years ago. Lost 80% of its value, and been slowly climbing. Only to be dumped again, and again. Its going to $0 by 2025, you will see.

S&P would have to break 4500 for BTC to hit 25lk. But first it has to break 20k and hold. Won't happen. Even if it does the SEC will come for it.

There is no future in crypto. Anyone holding will get dumped on hard very soon. I mean AMZN market cap over 1 trillion. And that is just one stock. Meaning just 1 stock alone completely owns BTC 3x over. And lets not forget every damn exchange is a scam and being brought up on charges. Including bitfinex, they are running from location to location. Binance is completely fucked. Just about every crypto exchange is either being investigated, or has charges pending. BTC-e owner, even yesterday. Going to jail...on guess what. Scamming (all crypto exchanges are scams, stay away from it).

 
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Blockchain here to stay, BTC is not.
Unrelated things. BTC is money, whatever Blockchain is, it has nothing to do with money.


Tether is just some made up coin bitfinex made. Its like magically creating money. Same for other stable coins. True USD, Real USD, or any other crap.
Don't want to look mean or rude, but these are arguments repeated again and again and they make no economic sense. Is like saying gold is worthless because governments print fiat money and that is what pumps gold price, because people buy gold with money and such. What determines gold price is the acceptance as store of value by a community of investors, and the qualities of gold as good/solid money.

Exactly the same happens with BTC. It's a store of value (and a fucking masterpiece of asset, BTW)

Only problem is that is young and highly volatile, but the more times it crashes 80% and fully recovers, the stronger it gets. Have you seen any other crypto doing that? Have you wondered why that happens?

Also, about the exchanges, you don't need exchanges to buy/sell/own bitcoin.

But that's ok, I mean, if you don't like it, no need to own it. There are many other assets to invest. For me, is crystal clear what BTC means and why is worth it, but there are many other things I don't understand and can't use as investment.
 
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There is no other crypto. Only BTC. All other coins are valued in sats. And gain value by trading BTC for them. For example. ETH. It has no dollar value.

0.03047770 BTC

ETH barely gained a few sats all year. However since BTC went up, so did the value of a sat, and so did eth.

Gold you can go into a pawn shop and sell. BTC has no value aside the darknet.

Its going to $0, you will see. Let me know when it crosses 20k and holds for 7 days :) Then I will eat my words.

And you are right, we are in the infancy of crypto. But BTC the biggest shitcoin there is. Again, it has no use. Transactions take close to 30 minutes. Nobody accepts BTC aside the darknet basically. What else can you use it for?

You do need an exchange. Lots of apps you can buy it directly, but they are just using an exchange on the backend. Bitfinex is the biggest exchange out. Its also in deep shit. Give it a year or two. Its going nowhere but down.

But not gonna argue with a rookie that thinks BTC is worth anything, and doesn't know what the fuck a blockchain is. Plus you just got done saying you bought an IPO for 3x its value (its worth $126 right now, tomorrow sub $120). IPO's that do that is a sign of a huge bubble that about to collapse.
 
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I've done a little bit of investing over the years. Around 2012 I pre-ordered a piece of dedicated Bitcoin mining hardware and sold it the day it arrived for 1200% profit. In hindsight I almost certainly would have made more if I had kept it and used it to mine Bitcoins, but I'm still happy with the result. I also bought stocks in the largest Canadian cannabis company (Canopy Growth) pre-legalization and about doubled my money. But those were mostly just lucky guesses.

I also had a conservative mutual fund with a big bank for a while. But then I learned about management fees and index investing, and pulled my money out of the mutual fund since the management fee was outpacing my gains.

Recently I watched the movie The Big Short and then read the book it was based on (which I highly recommend), and this inspired an interest in the financial markets. I'm currently reading a textbook on technical analysis and have started investing a bit of money in some relatively-large-cap TSX stocks based on technicals. My current strategy is pretty conservative: long-only swing trading in uptrends, with aggressive stop-losses. We'll see how it plays out!
 
@S.J.B. Anything by Marcia Stugum or Stigum and Stigum (Husband/Wife) is essential reading for Macro Economics. I had the very good fortune of having her as my Professor for two semesters in Macro Economics and those two classes alone helped me navigate the many years of economic ups and down since my relative youth.
 
Also....lol. Lay back and watch BTC get stomped.

If I had a BTC for every time I heard that 'Bitcoin is Dead" I could buy out Jeff Bezos and own Amazon. :cool:
 
Its not dead. But HUGE correction coming. Starting last week. Until stimulus comes it will be going down. And alts getting wrecked. Bad time to be holding crypto.
 
I mean BTC will be around as long as we are alive. Perhaps. We need crypto since we need a dark web. And alt payments. I think 2141 is last block mined We will be dead. The future all crypto.

Once it goes back to like 5k will get some.
 
I remember people saying the very same thing years ago. Then they were waiting for it to return to $790.00 and then they'd buy in again. They are still waiting, by the way. BTC is storage of wealth, not a primary currency. The FED is printing money like it's water. When inflation hits like it eventually must, BTC will gain in value if only because the dollar continues to lose buying value as inflation increases.

It is definitely due a correction, but I think you are miscalculating where support is. Only time will tell.
 
It amazes me how people still don't get it.

You don't need to be invested in BTC, but the cost of opportunity of not understanding what BTC is might be huge

An extreme example: whoever understood he could store his life savings in bitcoins in Venezuela years ago would have saved 99% of his wealth. Not only that, would have seen his wealth multiplied because of the BTC bull run. But no need to multiply your wealth. The only fact of having a so easy way of securing your wealth for the future in times of hyperinflation is amazing. Just need a USB wallet or even a piece of paper. Compare that with buying gold bullion and having to store it in a safe place, or carry it with you in a dangerous environment

Same with Argentina, not so extreme but same thing. If the US goes crazy and starts to apply "modern monetary policies" (like it's doing to some extent now) the $ is going to be devaluated as hell. Same thig for EUR, etc... This printing money frenzy in a zero-interest-rate economy is uncharted territory, better knowing what tools you might use.
 
Bro I am sure I have mined more BTC than you have owned in your life. Like literally 1000x more to be honest. Have been fucking with crypto for years upon years. BTC going down. Its getting stomped as we speak. Go ahead and buy at 17500 :) Be my guess and preserve your wealth LOL.

I understand more about crypto than you ever will. You are 6 years and 5 asics behind me. I have multiple s9's running as we speak.

Any way to make cash of BTC has been lonnnnggg gone. Only people that made real cash are people that bought years ago and held, or people that had the 1st couple rounds of asics. Outside of that its over. Its going back to sub 10k. Meaning if you bought now, you would lose half your money. You will see.

Then again you bought an IPO at 3x its value days before the whole market gonna get stomped. We are already at a 1% correction. DAX over 2% down. You already lost money in sub 24 hours. We take your opinion with a grain of salt.

TLT, VXX, UVXY, and SPXS up up up and awaaayyyy!!!!! Its time. Market go bye bye.

An extreme example: whoever understood he could store his life savings in bitcoins in Venezuela years ago would have saved 99% of his wealth. Not only that, would have seen his wealth multiplied because of the BTC bull run. But no need to multiply your wealth. The only fact of having a so easy way of securing your wealth for the future in times of hyperinflation is amazing. Just need a USB wallet or even a piece of paper. Compare that with buying gold bullion and having to store it in a safe place, or carry it with you in a dangerous environment

That makes no sense. You would have had to bought BTC for under $200 (pre 2014) to 100x your money. A few sure did. Literally "a few". But that opportunity has been long gone. Exchanges have been releasing information that 90%+ of people lose money in crypto. You know how many idiots bought ETH at $1000? Tons. They all lost. ETH will never hit $1000. If they held for 3 years they could of recovered around 50% of it. BTC is worth less than it was 3 years ago. You know how many people bought 3 years ago and lost? Tons. Even if they bought 3 years ago and held, they still lost. Nobody is preserving money with BTC. Only people making money in 2020 are bots scalping and exchanges. If you bought today, you would lose a significant amount of it going forward.

As far as gold. You don't need bullion. You can buy paper gold. Or trade futures. I made at least 50k off gold in 2020. Never touched bullion.

The whole crypto space is a pure gimmick these days. 99% of crypto projects have 0 purpose. Running a blockchain based app vs a standard app will cost you 100x more. An alt is made with a gimmick white paper. They pre mine literally 80% of the coins. Release the coin, and dump. Literally every alt has done this. Name a coin and I will tell you how they are scamming. I can even dig into some really good scams where they even went as far as to say they got hacked in order to lock wallets and halt trading.

BTC is the only real coin, but its a shit coin itself. The highs you are seeing today...probably the last you will see. Probably forever. Heading back to sub 10k, then sub 5k after. They only ran it up one last time along with the phony market to take more suckers money. I would hate to be that guy that bought at 19k. He is losing his money by the second.

BTC is nothing more than an extremely volatile store of value. With a 90% chance of losing. Would pick gold any day over BTC. But would pick the market trend any day over gold.

BTC also follows the s&p. Also both BTC highs have been under trumps market rallies. Its likely you only traded stocks under trump. You are about to see a whole new market come january. 2021 will be a complete loss on all indexes. With gold even higher (BTC down), and the VIX at unreal highs. Smart people have taken profits and are getting ready for the next cycle of the market.

After learning enough you will see that BTC is only a platform for criminals. Be it the dark net, or ways to funnel money. Its no place at all for investing. Certainly no place to put your life savings (thinking that BTC is in any way a place to protect your wealth against inflation is completely fucked). If you want to protect your wealth, put your money in a fucking bank account. If you want to gamble your money buy stocks. If you want to invest your money, talk to someone with knowledge and setup a proper portfolio that will make money no matter which way the market goes. If you want to lose your money, then go to a casino or buy BTC.
 
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