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The 2018 Trump Presidency thread

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How does "84% disapproval" sound? :D

These numbers are inflated based on that fucking lunatic Kanye West simulating support of Trump. From what I can see, the figure generally sits at 11%. Which is abysmal.

Further digging, and it seems Obama left office with an approval rating a fair bit higher. In truth, I simply do not believe that Trump has higher approval amongst the black community than Obama did. I don't know stats for republican support of Obama, but why the fuck would they support a democrat?

Bear in mind, I suck at reading graphs but this seems kinda clear:

atlas_ry0--pRUe@2x.png


I grabbed that from here. Please don't judge my source :(
 
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The Associated Press/NORC Center poll, conducted in February, asked a series of questions on racial issues and surveyed a larger proportion of black adults than most polls do. The poll found, unsurprisingly, that 92 percent of blacks disapprove of President Trump, compared with 7 percent who approve of him. A whopping 84 percent of blacks think Trump is a racist, compared with 10 percent who do not.

But black opinion was less monolithic on other questions:


  • Asked if race relations in the U.S. are better, worse or about the same as in February 2017, about 7 percent of black respondents said better (I would assume the Trump backers), 65 percent said worse, and 27 percent said about the same.


  • About half of African-Americans said blacks have a ?large disadvantage? in ?getting ahead in the United States.? Among the other half, 29 percent said being black is a small disadvantage, 11 percent said there is neither an advantage or a disadvantage, and 10 percent said blacks have an advantage.


  • Only 1 percent of black respondents in the poll described themselves as Republicans, compared with 59 percent who said they are Democrats. But 59 percent is much less than the overwhelming share of black Americans who vote for Democrats. Many blacks, like Americans overall, largely vote for one party but are not particularly aligned with it: 16 percent of blacks described themselves as independents, while 21 percent answered ?none of these.?


  • Polling done by the Pew Research Center has suggested that among self-identified Democrats, blacks and Latinos are less likely to describe themselves as liberal than whites. Data from this AP/NORC poll comports with Pew?s findings: The majority of blacks say they are moderate (44 percent) or conservative (27 percent), while just 26 percent said that they are liberal.


  • Forty percent of blacks in this survey said they live in suburban areas, and 19 percent said they live in rural areas. Often ?inner-city? and ?urban? are used to describe black people or black communities, but that perception is no longer accurate. (Census data shows that the majority of blacks do not live in cities.)
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The Diversity Of Black Political Views
 
Ouch. Thats some seriously bad approval.

As I recall it wasn't long ago that Trump claimed to have 22% approval with African Americans.
 
Funny you mention that, JessFR...

Donald Trump’s misleading claim that Kanye West’s praise doubled his African-American support

President Donald Trump, in the midst of a controversial bromance with Kanye West, told a crowd at the National Rifle Association convention that the rapper’s praise had doubled his support among African-Americans in a week.


Social media pleasantries between the two men began when West professed his love for Trump in an April 25 tweet in which he referred to the 45th president as his "brother."


"We are both dragon energy," West wrote. "He is my brother."
You don't have to agree with trump but the mob can't make me not love him. We are both dragon energy. He is my brother. I love everyone. I don't agree with everything anyone does. That's what makes us individuals. And we have the right to independent thought.
— KANYE WEST (@kanyewest) April 25, 2018

​
West later tweeted a photo of himself wearing a Make America Great Again hat bearing Trump’s signature.
we got love pic.twitter.com/Edk0WGscp6
— KANYE WEST (@kanyewest) April 25, 2018

​
While addressing the NRA convention on May 4, Trump’s remarks veered toward his support among black Americans.


"Kanye West must have some power because you probably saw, I doubled my African-American poll numbers," Trump told the audience in Dallas. "We went from 11 to 22 in one week. Thank you, Kanye, thank you."


We decided to take a closer look at the numbers. It turns out Trump garbled the results of a real survey that showed a much more nuanced picture.


Sample too small


Trump appears to have been referencing a Reuters weekly poll that showed his approval rating among black men going from 11 percent for the week ending April 22 to 22 percent for the week ending April 29.


So even if you take the Reuters poll at face value, Trump misstated the results. The poll showed Trump’s support doubled among African-American men only, not African-Americans in general. (The poll showed that his approval rating among black Americans overall went from 8.9 percent to 16.5 percent over the same period.)


But there’s reason to be wary of concluding, based on this poll, that Trump is enjoying a favorable shift in public opinion among black men.


First, the sample size is small. Generally speaking, the smaller a poll’s sample size, the more prone it is to error. And the two weekly polls in question looked only at small slices: The surveys were based, respectively, on feedback from 118 and 171 respondents.


According to Reuters’ own polling editor, the sample sizes for this particular poll "were too small to reliably suggest any shift in public opinion." Chris Kahn, Reuters U.S. political polling editor, said the "credibility interval" (which is similar to the more familiar margin of error) was +/- 9 percentage points.


So while Trump claimed his approval rating among black men for the week ending April 22 was 11 percent, realistically it could have anywhere from 2 percent to 20 percent. His approval rating the following week for this group was anywhere from 13 percent to 31 percent.


In other words, according to Kahn, the polling "leaves open the possibility that his approval also could have dropped in this time frame."


Karlyn Bowman, a polling expert at the American Enterprise Institute, said news consumers should heed the Reuters polling editor’s cautionary notes.


"Most polls do not have a large sample of African Americans, and so we have to be very careful in interpreting the results of any single survey. The margin of error is high," Bowman said. "I would also not rely on a single survey to suggest that something new was occurring."


We were unable to find other polls that measured Trump's African-American support on a weekly basis.


Online survey


Another issue with the poll’s reliability concerns how it was conducted. Rather than calling randomly generated phone numbers, this poll allowed online respondents to opt-in to the survey.


In polling terminology, this survey used "a non-probability online sample." As CNN’s director of polling Jennifer Agiesta explained, "those who participated signed up to take the poll rather than being randomly selected," meaning "there could be bias in the sample."


Charles Wheelan, a professor at Dartmouth who has written extensively about statistics and public policy, cautioned that online polls are highly vulnerable to "selection bias," whereby the sample of respondents does not accurately reflect a population writ large.


"It’s very difficult, if not impossible, to get an accurate cross-section using online tools because they are so biased by who is likely to be online and respond to a survey," Wheelan said.


Our ruling


Trump said, "I doubled my African-American poll numbers. We went from 11 to 22 in one week."

Even if you take the Reuters poll at face value, Trump misstated the results. The poll showed Trump’s support doubled among African-American men only, not African-Americans of both sexes.


In terms of the poll’s accuracy, Reuters’ own polling chief said the sample size was too small to reliably indicate Trump is enjoying a favorable shift in public opinion among black men.


The poll’s reliability is also questionable given online respondents opted-in to the survey, which is less reliable than using a randomly-generated sample.


We rate this Mostly False.
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excerpt from trump's montana rally speech:

I have broken more Elton John records, he seems to have a lot of records. And I, by the way, I don’t have a musical instrument. I don’t have a guitar or an organ. No organ. Elton has an organ. And lots of other people helping. No we’ve broken a lot of records. We’ve broken virtually every record.
...
Because you know, look, I only need this space. They need much more room. For basketball, for hockey and all of the sports, they need a lot of room. We don’t need it. We have people in that space. So we break all of these records.
...
Really we do it without like, the musical instruments. This is the only musical: the mouth. And hopefully the brain attached to the mouth. Right? The brain, more important than the mouth, is the brain. The brain is much more important.
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yep - nothing to worry about re: his mental health :\

alasdair
 
alasdairm said:
excerpt from trump's montana rally speech:

I have broken more Elton John records, he seems to have a lot of records. And I, by the way, I don’t have a musical instrument. I don’t have a guitar or an organ. No organ. Elton has an organ. And lots of other people helping. No we’ve broken a lot of records. We’ve broken virtually every record.
...
Because you know, look, I only need this space. They need much more room. For basketball, for hockey and all of the sports, they need a lot of room. We don’t need it. We have people in that space. So we break all of these records.
...
Really we do it without like, the musical instruments. This is the only musical: the mouth. And hopefully the brain attached to the mouth. Right? The brain, more important than the mouth, is the brain. The brain is much more important.
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yep - nothing to worry about re: his mental health :\

alasdair
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dementia. he's losing the ability to form coherent sentences.
 
Wow... damn that's some broken speech there. 8o

Yeah X_Factor, there are actually a lot of people who seem to take every little thing he says and does as the work of a noble savior who is the peak of intelligence and morality. I mean at this point I believe it's a vocal minority of the total population but it seems some areas are still very pro-Trump... it is very difficult for me to imagine how though. Every time I watch and/or listen to the guy speak, every aspect of his tone of voice and body language screams insincere, manipulative, and narcissistic.
 
X_Factor said:
Border Control? We've had the laws for years and they weren't enforced. Call me a protectionist if you want. I'm not calling for closed borders, but I wish for proper vetting that hasn't been happening.
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How would you propose doing that? I am pretty liberal in regard to immigration but I don't really beleive in open borders. I think there is need for some form of border control; I suspect most people do. Its the manner, and way this is enacted- the "proper vetting"- that many arguments about immigration really boil down to.

The NK discussions....I'm glad someone is opening talks rather than let bombs continue to be tossed our way,
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And which bombs have been tossed your way exactly?

As they say 'talk is cheap'.

Its problematic to credit Trump with too much in regards to the economy; its generally recognised that long-term trends only emerge after a few years of Presiency rather than right at the beginning, as some Trump supporters (not you) have claimed.
 
DRAIN THE SWAMP: What Trump?s 32-point plan actually looks like
http://theduran.com/drain-the-swamp-what-trump-32-point-plan-actually-looks-like/

One of the campaign promises that President Trump made was to do what he called ?draining the swamp?, that is, to get rid of the massive over-regulation, bureaucracy and overlapping organizational agencies in Washington D.C.

While this gets varying levels of attention or criticism from the media and politicians in D.C., it is usually not a clearly explored topic as to HOW he is doing this, or if there is any sense of structure. The media tends to portray Trump as a swaggering ignorant teenager, or bully that breaks things and has no idea what he is doing.

But this is a skewed perception. The Washington Examiner offers some concrete information in their article today ?Under New Management: Trump?s ?Fresh Eyes? sparks massive federal reform:?
President Trump is taking charge of his administration?s effort to reform the federal government and workforce, the biggest demonstration yet that Washington is under new management.

Aides describe the president as personally invested in the 32-point plan to shake the bureaucracy out of a 1950s model based on secretarial pools.
?So much of the ability to drive change requires a fresh perspective,? said Margaret Weichert, an author of the recently announced reform blueprint and deputy director for management at the Office of Management and Budget.
?It?s frequently why I, as a management consultant, was brought into an organization to consult on issues like this because fresh eyes and people who don?t have a stake in the status quo very often can see things differently than the people who are of that organization or institution. And that was a major theme in the last election, that people were effectively hiring a businessman to try to change business as usual in Washington,? she said in an interview.
​
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This Organizational Chart is one of the tools being examined and used for this work:
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90
 
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