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  • Current Events & Politics Moderators: tryptakid | Foreigner

Russo-Ukrainian War v. World War 3?

Señor Moreno is correct in saying it IS a proxy war. Russia has been backing separatist groups in Eastern Ukraine since 2014. Anyone else remember Malaysia Airways Flight 7? How it was brought down by a Russian Buk SAM supplied by the 53rd Air Defense Brigade? So it's not as if anyone aided Ukraine at that time, in spite of Russia annexing Crimea.

The difference is that it isn't a proxy war for Russia. They have invaded another nation using their own troops.
 
BTW Who says the explosives used to damage the pipeline were planted all at once? Like the recent Kerch bridge explosion, who says that HE hasn't been delivered over days or even weeks?

Certainly this is exactly how such large amounts of conventional explosives were planted in the past. The Messines 'mines' planted in WW1 were the biggest in history at the time.
 
Fertile said:
BTW Who says the explosives used to damage the pipeline were planted all at once? Like the recent Kerch bridge explosion, who says that HE hasn't been delivered over days or even weeks?

Certainly this is exactly how such large amounts of conventional explosives were planted in the past. The Messines 'mines' planted in WW1 were the biggest in history at the time.
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There's a difference between laying WW1 era naval mines and placing a ton of high explosives on a specific adversaries target at depth without detection. That's like comparing a cluster bomb and a precision guided cruise missile hitting a general sitting at his desk.

You're not going to spend days or weeks sitting over a target planting explosives, especially given the nature of this attack is bordering on a declaration of war in an already tense geopolitical situation! It had to be covert, and that narrows down the suspects to a handful of state actors who even have the capability.
 
-=SS=- said:
There's a difference between laying WW1 era naval mines and placing a ton of high explosives on a specific adversaries target at depth without detection. That's like comparing a cluster bomb and a precision guided cruise missile hitting a general sitting at his desk.

You're not going to spend days or weeks sitting over a target planting explosives, especially given the nature of this attack is bordering on a declaration of war in an already tense geopolitical situation! It had to be covert, and that narrows down the suspects to a handful of state actors who even have the capability.
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I used the term 'mines; in inverted commas because they were on LAND. At least have the grace to check a clear reference before launching a critique.

If you look at the images of the bridge, it's clearly NOT an air launched weapon. Entire sections of the deck have collapsed WHOLE into the water. No cratering or telltale shrapnel holes one would expect. Also the mass of explosives involved would have to be huge. Multiple tonnes. Don't forget the loads such bridges take under normal operation. The 2 viable options would be a large truck with a charge setup to send the bulk of force downwards or an attack on one or more support.

I was also under the impression that Ukraine has already stated that the 'Special Military Operation' to be a declaration of war, so I don't quite see attacking any target within Ukraine itself is going to make any difference. Especially since within 1 hour of the attack, Ukraine used social media to show images of the damage with the words 'it begins'. If you don't wish to be blamed, don't admit it - rule 1.
 
-=SS=- said:
I'm talking about the Nord Stream sabotage, not the bridge.
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My mistake. Totally. Clearly it was to make the point 'we can do this to the Norway to UK/France/Germany/Netherlands pipeline'.
The pipes have a 1220 mm diameter and a thickness (given it's in shallow water) of 26.8mm. The working pressure is up to 220 Mpa but as I understand it, it wasn't in operation at the time. Shaped charges designed to sheer such pipelines are produced industrially. I believe they are called 'radial shaped charges' and the total mass of a device intended to sheer such a pipeline could be managed by just 2 divers. Yes, submarines can get into that depth, but I imagine divers from a surface vessel of submarine with 'moon bay' would be best suited.

I did mention this earlier in the thread because it's just beyond the depth at which air can be used as the breathing gas by divers and Trimix or better in a rebreather would be used. The latter so no bubbles rise to the surface but rebreathers take a lot of management.

It has been in the news about defence of the Norway pipeline with anti-submarine patrols being increased and other measures (unspecified) introduced. I did laugh at the UK efforts:


The thing is, the Norway gas infrastructure pipeline is 8800Km long. It DOES have some redundancy but maybe that makes it a more useful target as it's possible to reduce, reduce, reduce total capacity before total denial of supply.

I used to dive quite a lot in my youth and so I can imagine the skill involved in setting up a radial shaped charge at such a depth. The North Sea is a famously nasty area to dive in. I stopped because my teacher drowned while cave diving in Yorkshire.
 
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Kerch.png



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I see that now they have said it was a truck bomb. I still think it was set up to send the blast downwards. Officially, the largest shaped-charge ever tested had 272 Kg of Octol. It penetrated 5.94m of steel re-enforced concrete. It was of linear design so it could take a slice out of the bridge as wide as the charge.

The fact that a nearby train was not derailed suggests the force was directional. From what I read, it would theoretically be possible to pack 36000Kg of HE in the largest Russian trucks, but the Oklahoma City truck bombing used 18000Kg of ANFO (which is about as powerful as 9000Kg of TNT) and look at the mess that caused.



Notice how cars quite near the seat of the explosion remain in control. Russian media has stated that 3 people were killed. It's still 3 too many, but it was a sophisticated attack.
 
it was not a truck bomb lol. I truck bomb could of not levelled that bridge. It was obv one of those new underwater drones ukraine got given.

Literaelly impossible for a truck sized bomb to blow a bridge up like that
 
Fertile said:
I see that now they have said it was a truck bomb. I still think it was set up to send the blast downwards. Officially, the largest shaped-charge ever tested had 272 Kg of Octol. It penetrated 5.94m of steel re-enforced concrete. It was of linear design so it could take a slice out of the bridge as wide as the charge.
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The issue with that is the directional charge isn't flush with the surface. That's half a meter or so of empty space for the explosive force to dissipate into first. The second issue is that the video clearly shows a huge fucking explosion lol.. gigantic fireball.

I'm not convinced it was the truck. Its interior was visually inspected prior to passing over the bridge, and apparently they have sophisticated screening tech for lorries too. On the CCTV you can see unusual wave breaks underneath the bridge section immediately prior to the explosion. The water isn't choppy in the rest of the frame, clearly it has been disturbed at that location. I think it was a boat or perhaps a submersible vessel, using the lorry as cover. Russians will never admit their security was breached in such fashion, highly embarrassing and also way beyond the capability of Ukraine.

Look at 0:30 underneath the bridge behind the truck.
 
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He said the Russian strategy from the beginning was "absolutely laughable," evident from the limited amount of soldiers in Kyiv. He said Russian military officials treat their own men worse than Ukrainians do, and that non-commissioned officers are practically nonexistent.

Russian soldiers encountered on the battlefield routinely leave weapons in random spots, if they have any at all. Their gear is "trash," he said, remembering seeing pieces of body armor duct-taped together.

"Most guys we capture, it's not 'drop the weapon,' he said. "Most guys don't even have one. ... The term, 'it's like a video game,' is constantly echoed by Ukrainians in the context of, the Russians just come at you and you shoot them like it's a video game. You're almost not afraid. I would take a gunfight every day over all the other crap.

"We were all waiting every moment of every day for the big a-ha gotcha–like, oh, 'This was a big ruse' and it's never come. It's been like this since Day One."



www.newsweek.com

American in Ukraine details fighting unarmed Russians: "It's just insane"

An Iraq War veteran is putting his life on the line to help a country he loves because he believes in the cause.
www.newsweek.com www.newsweek.com
 
Now that I think about it, they could probably hit Prudhoe Bay with a missile, and destroy some oil infrastructure. That's the largest oil field in North America. It's still not real close to Russia tho
 
Fertile said:
Señor Moreno is correct in saying it IS a proxy war. Russia has been backing separatist groups in Eastern Ukraine since 2014. Anyone else remember Malaysia Airways Flight 7? How it was brought down by a Russian Buk SAM supplied by the 53rd Air Defense Brigade? So it's not as if anyone aided Ukraine at that time, in spite of Russia annexing Crimea.

The difference is that it isn't a proxy war for Russia. They have invaded another nation using their own troops.
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Yes, at this point is not only proxy. You are right.
Today it is a full blown war for all both sides, despite Russia keeping calling it a " special operation". Sure it has to be special if you have killed and lost thousands and you have to invite 300.000 more new dudes to the party.

But it started, as you said, as a proxy war in 2014. No Russian or NATO troops on the ground, but it was not a problem for that malaisian flight from Holland to be shoot down by pro russians using official russian warfare, leading to hundreds of dead. It was neither a problem for 50 persons beeing burnt fucking alive at Odessa's trade union building (no international investigation, like with the malaisian plane) nor for 14.000 casualties in Dombass, mostly pro-russians and mostly civilians, if we are honest enough to remember.

But If you remember (and am sure, after reading your post, you do) it all didn't start in 2014 either. Ten years earlier you had a lot of under the carpet movements, to win Ukr for the West or to keep it under into the russian sphere, that lead to the poissonig of president Yushenko by Russia, followed by some pro west "orange revolution", one of the several " colour revolutions" that West paid for in places like Georgia, Kirguistan and others.

And if we wanna go back to the first 90s we will find interesting ucrainian characters like Kravchuk and specially Kruchma. They, with their russian counterparts like Zhirinowsky have sowed what today we are harvesting.


Inthebetween said:
Seems it was a suicide bombing. All of you cheering on anyone dying are really class acts. 100
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So are they using shaheeds like in the Middle East or Afghanistan?
I reckon heroes are needed in wars, but I never liked the whole idea of martyrs.
 
M57 ATACMS. Range: 70–300 km. Accuracy is 9 m (30 ft) CEP (Circular Error Probability). 500lbs warhead.
Hit the bridge at 90 degrees at Mach 3. Perhaps a delayed fuse to blow from under the bridge.
 
Putin is about to make a decision to use nuclear weapons tomorrow. Well I might be asleep and not even notice the end of the world. I hope as soon as he tries we just wipe those mfs off the earth with all our nukes and turn their entire country into radioactive dust.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Red-faced Vladimir Putin brands Crimea bridge blast a 'terror attack'

Speaking ahead of a meeting with his Security Council tomorrow, the livid Russian president said the blast was designed to destroy 'critically important civilian infrasrtructure'.
www.dailymail.co.uk www.dailymail.co.uk
 
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