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Cards Poker (Texas Hold'em)

This year, and last months of 2023, i was playing really really bad, i havent been in a final table since september... im consistently loosing almost every season of sit n go or tourneys, i have got really good prizes (playing mini tournaments with rebuy and addon at ipoker, that gives you tickets to pay an entry, i play for the 20 eur tickets, and spend it in double or nothing sit n go), Im doing really good at satellites, but at some point im doing mistakes, maybe there are bots, RTA, collution, but its mainly my game what is making me loosing at the end of each month, so, i decided to take a rest, of any shit related to betting, its making me sick after all my looses, i need to calm down, then study my game when i got the interest in do it, honestly i dont have so much interest of study poker at the moment, so i will stop playing cuz im not rich and i cant gift my work earned money :mad::cry:
 
Choosegm said:
Hey @Fourofakind, I'm sorry to hear that you've been struggling with your poker game recently. Taking a break to clear your mind and regain your focus sounds like a wise decision. It's important to prioritize your well-being and mental health, especially when things aren't going well at the tables.
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I have been away from tables, not totally absent, but im now focused and really busy at my business, thank you for your words and welcome to BL!

Love
 
Do you bet for get fun or have experienced winnings trough some time?.
Right now, im at sports betting (90%) tennis, when the bookies offer +ev bets instead of the real live game (generally im taking minium 2.5 odds, but generally are more like 3.15-4.20 odds, with EXTREMELY GOOD RESULTS. Maybe around 10% is at basketball with two selection bets (AH and O/U) trying to aim to high odds too, with good results.

Few matches of sit n go here and there, i won a turbo rebuy at ipoker of 200eur gtd., not won, got kicked at 3rd., but i havent played poker so much this days, the work have been sick the last few weeks/months, and im trying to do most i can when i have it, becouse is not common to have tons of work... and incomes to reinvest in my services, honestly im feeling tried and started taking modafinil often becouse im getting sleepy at the middle of the day and getting involuntary "naps", even when i smoked meth few mins ago.... strange but modafinil is working a little better in that area now, plus im bored of the need of smoke a lot and lost time and just for nothing...

Anyway, i have work today too, sunday..., but will play few ipoker tournaments while doing the easier things :)

Cheers!
 
i'm in sac for the weekend, dog sitting for a friend.

looked up the schedule for stones card room last night and they had an 11am $60 tourney today.

45 entries and i cashed 3rd for $296.

i was a little undisciplined but i made some solid reads, solid calls and got a few bluffs through.

alasdair
 
Oldest known full deck of cards, from 1475

GaHudipWEAA_Jkp
 
a guy i used to play $85 tournaments with at lakeside casino in tahoe made the final table of the 2025 wsop main event!

$1M in the bag! $10M for 1st!

go jarod!

alasdair
 
wsop is in town this week.

i just played a $400 ring event and got crushed. i ran KK and AK into AA in back to back hands and it was the same guy. jfc.

i rebought and played 7 hands at my new table and lost them all. done for the day. pretty brutal session.

i'm in the middle of a months-long pretty tough downswing. i get my money all-in good a lot and get beat a lot. well, doesn't every player say that. i decided to take a look at the numbers.

i've been tracking all-ins where i got 1 call over the past months. i only tracked the ones with 1 call for ease of tracking and analysis. the data set is just under 200 all-ins.

i fed the results into claude ai and this is what it said...

"The standard deviation for a 195-hand binomial experiment at 64.87% is about 6.7 wins. Your result sits roughly 4.8 standard deviations below the mean - a deeply unlucky outcome. The probability of running this badly or worse is around 0.08%, meaning you'd expect to see a result this bad only about once in every 1,250 similar 195-hand samples.

This almost certainly reflects an extraordinarily unlucky stretch, not a fundamental problem with how you're getting your money in. It's not in 'this should never happen in a lifetime of poker' territory, but a 1-in-1,250 downswing is still something most players will never experience."

something most players will never experience...

as phil galfond says, downswings are more likely than you think - it's "entirely normal" - but i hope nobody ever has to experience a downswing that lasts for months and is made up of soul-crushing bad beat after soul-crushing bad beat :)

alasdair
 
alasdairm said:
wsop is in town this week.

i just played a $400 ring event and got crushed. i ran KK and AK into AA in back to back hands and it was the same guy. jfc.

i rebought and played 7 hands at my new table and lost them all. done for the day. pretty brutal session.

i'm in the middle of a months-long pretty tough downswing. i get my money all-in good a lot and get beat a lot. well, doesn't every player say that. i decided to take a look at the numbers.

i've been tracking all-ins where i got 1 call over the past months. i only tracked the ones with 1 call for ease of tracking and analysis. the data set is just under 200 all-ins.

i fed the results into claude ai and this is what it said...

"The standard deviation for a 195-hand binomial experiment at 64.87% is about 6.7 wins. Your result sits roughly 4.8 standard deviations below the mean - a deeply unlucky outcome. The probability of running this badly or worse is around 0.08%, meaning you'd expect to see a result this bad only about once in every 1,250 similar 195-hand samples.

This almost certainly reflects an extraordinarily unlucky stretch, not a fundamental problem with how you're getting your money in. It's not in 'this should never happen in a lifetime of poker' territory, but a 1-in-1,250 downswing is still something most players will never experience."

something most players will never experience...

as phil galfond says, downswings are more likely than you think - it's "entirely normal" - but i hope nobody ever has to experience a downswing that lasts for months and is made up of soul-crushing bad beat after soul-crushing bad beat :)

alasdair
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Honestly, the brutal part about poker is that even when you know variance is real, living through it still feels personal. Running KK and AK into AA back-to-back against the same guy is the kind of thing that sounds fake until it happens to you. Then you rebuy, lose seven straight hands, and suddenly every river card feels cursed.What stood out to me is that you actually tracked the data instead of just saying “I run bad.” Most players never do that. A 200-hand sample isn’t massive in poker terms with https://www.pokerlistings.com/casino-bonuses/reload-casino-bonuses, but being nearly 5 standard deviations below expectation is still insanely rough. The important thing is that your analysis suggests the money is going in good overall, which is really the only thing a player can control long term.

Also, WSOP weeks amplify everything emotionally. Bigger fields, more coolers, more fatigue, more pressure, more “this one matters” energy. A normal downswing already hurts, but during a series it can feel absolutely relentless because every session carries extra weight.

Taking the rest of the day off after that sounds like the correct decision honestly. Sometimes protecting your mental game is the best EV move available.
 
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Ikens said:
Taking the rest of the day off after that sounds like the correct decision honestly. Sometimes protecting your mental game is the best EV move available.
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Aye, poker is incredibly mentally draining in tournament form when you're playing 7pm - 3 am ish. Fun though.
 
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