🌟🌟 Social 🌟🌟 PD Social Thread 2022-2025 v. Year of the Phenethylamine

[pharmakos]

I was writing it all out, a little rusty, but apparently it's been done and explained before.

UFOs: how to calculate the odds that an alien spaceship has been spotted

One in a million or one in ten? Mathematics can help us work out the odds of whether recent sightings of UFOs are really alien spaceships.

theconversation.com

I even like the parameter choices.

The Drake Equation functions better for this purpose, no?

 

[pharmakos]

Why Would an Alien Civilization Send Out Von Neumann Probes? Lots of Reasons, says a new Study

A new study takes a look at Von Neumann probes and asks the really important questions: "why would aliens send them?" and, "where might we find them?"

www.universetoday.com

 

[pharmakos]

Another possible solution to the Fermi paradox that almost never gets discussed (too anthropocentric for some people, I suppose) -- "someone had to be first"

Maybe someday we'll find that we aren't the only intelligent life in the universe. But it's possible that we are the first within our light cone that is capable of leaving our rock. Human ingenuity and technology advances at such a rapid rate that even us here as integrated observers are astounded by the technological advancements that can happen over the course of a single lifetime. Perhaps that's not just subjectively assuming human exceptionalism. Maybe it's true. Maybe we really just see that fast at getting off our rock compared to most life.

 

[Buzz Lightbeer]

The Drake Equation functions better for this purpose, no?

Well yes, P(Aliens exist and can reach us) is the main factor of the equation, but the others still have an impact and it's what we were talking about, the UFO sighting so..

Interesting paper linked in the article too regarding the Drake equation & Fermi paradox.

 

[Buzz Lightbeer]

The article might even be a little soft in the equation? I think P(there are aliens) should be P(there are aliens and they can visit us), which is a big one. Anyway, I might be ruining the vibe. If anyone knows, do let me know.

 

[Pfafffed]

On the topic of life and how awe-inspiring it is, this Kurzgesagt video just dropped. It's quite good.

 

[simstim]

I fully believe in extra terrestrial life because I believe in a creator and why create billions of stars if there is no life.

I mean the milky way is only one galaxy there are other galaxies...who know what might be out there.

 

[simstim]

I licked the spoon with 25b-NBOH tripping already

 

[Xorkoth]

There's this one guy that I follow on Twitter, smart dude, who recently got very deep into everything UFOs. He's smart and sure as hell knows a lot more about these things than I do. Then there's also this other pretty smart guy that doesn't seem to give a shit.
My personal opinion is that it's all just so incredibly unlikely, many zeros after the comma!!

I agree, it is very unlikely. But possible, I don't use "very unlikely" to allow myself confirmation bias when confronted with new information.

Another possible solution to the Fermi paradox that almost never gets discussed (too anthropocentric for some people, I suppose) -- "someone had to be first"

Maybe someday we'll find that we aren't the only intelligent life in the universe. But it's possible that we are the first within our light cone that is capable of leaving our rock. Human ingenuity and technology advances at such a rapid rate that even us here as integrated observers are astounded by the technological advancements that can happen over the course of a single lifetime. Perhaps that's not just subjectively assuming human exceptionalism. Maybe it's true. Maybe we really just see that fast at getting off our rock compared to most life.

The thing about it is, it is SO dependent on how long intelligent life has had to evolve before reaching the point in technology/understanding where they can hit that exponential increase in capabilities that we have. The stars didn't all form at the same time, and neither did the planets. If some roughly equivalent planet to Earth, with the same sort of evolutionary path leading to a species intelligent enough to do what we're doing, happened to form a billion years earlier, then it could be that a billion years ago, some species set out into space, and/or began looking/listening for someone else. They very likely wouldn't exist anymore... a billion years is a LONG time, But they might have been the first. But what about even older planets around older stars? Or what about a planet that didn't have repeated mass extinction events, but was the same age as Earth... perhaps their intelligent species reached where we are 100 million years earlier or something.

I have a hard time with the idea that we and Earth are really that special in any way, among the unfathomable reaches of the universe. Us, the first? Maybe, but it seems like a vanishingly small possibility. It's much more likely that we seem alone because all we have REALLY seen is the planets of our solar system, and we have vaguely seen that other rocky worlds exist in their stars' Goldilocks (habitable) zones, in stars close to us, in our galactic neighborhood. So we have been able to observe 0.0000000(repeat zeroes for a long time)00.1% of the universe. And we would have only been able to pick up and hear signals that happened to be within about 60 light years from here so far, and like I said in my previous post, if we were hoping our signals would be answered, the receiver who sent them back would have had to have been 30 light years away at most (30 there + 30 back = 60 years). For all we know, some advanced civilization heard our signal yesterday and is like OMG, aliens!! They're real! And they sent it back, but it won't be until 2083 that we would receive it.

Or, it's also a possibility some intelligent race got our signal and didn't reply, but knows we're here and is coming to do... something. Could be very bad, could be good. But, let me emphasize that I think this is very unlikely. I am just outlining possibilities that are real.

Our galaxy is 105,700 light years across. Our signals have made it 0.00057% of the way across our galaxy since we set up SETI. Frankly, we have no fucking idea what's out there, or who.

I mean the milky way is only one galaxy there are other galaxies...who know what might be out there.

Yeah, at least 125 BILLION other galaxies... but they believe the number will rise to around 200 billion with James webb's observations.

 

[Mjäll]

It's the internet era. How could we?

I mean way back.

What modern technology have the chinese invented? They use western technology for their own collectivist fascist purposes. They also use it to fight the western world.

Not worth it, inviting this strange human tribe into modernity. For what? Junk trade? Useless plastic? Same for many others.

US is of course deserving of much criticism as well. The whole democratic imperialism endeavour is disgusting.

 

[Buzz Lightbeer]

I agree, it is very unlikely. But possible, I don't use "very unlikely" to allow myself confirmation bias when confronted with new information.

Indeed, but that's what Bayes is for to measure the impact of the new information, the priors remain the priors

 

[pharmakos]

I agree, it is very unlikely. But possible, I don't use "very unlikely" to allow myself confirmation bias when confronted with new information.



The thing about it is, it is SO dependent on how long intelligent life has had to evolve before reaching the point in technology/understanding where they can hit that exponential increase in capabilities that we have. The stars didn't all form at the same time, and neither did the planets. If some roughly equivalent planet to Earth, with the same sort of evolutionary path leading to a species intelligent enough to do what we're doing, happened to form a billion years earlier, then it could be that a billion years ago, some species set out into space, and/or began looking/listening for someone else. They very likely wouldn't exist anymore... a billion years is a LONG time, But they might have been the first. But what about even older planets around older stars? Or what about a planet that didn't have repeated mass extinction events, but was the same age as Earth... perhaps their intelligent species reached where we are 100 million years earlier or something.

I have a hard time with the idea that we and Earth are really that special in any way, among the unfathomable reaches of the universe. Us, the first? Maybe, but it seems like a vanishingly small possibility. It's much more likely that we seem alone because all we have REALLY seen is the planets of our solar system, and we have vaguely seen that other rocky worlds exist in their stars' Goldilocks (habitable) zones, in stars close to us, in our galactic neighborhood. So we have been able to observe 0.0000000(repeat zeroes for a long time)00.1% of the universe. And we would have only been able to pick up and hear signals that happened to be within about 60 light years from here so far, and like I said in my previous post, if we were hoping our signals would be answered, the receiver who sent them back would have had to have been 30 light years away at most (30 there + 30 back = 60 years). For all we know, some advanced civilization heard our signal yesterday and is like OMG, aliens!! They're real! And they sent it back, but it won't be until 2083 that we would receive it.

Or, it's also a possibility some intelligent race got our signal and didn't reply, but knows we're here and is coming to do... something. Could be very bad, could be good. But, let me emphasize that I think this is very unlikely. I am just outlining possibilities that are real.

Our galaxy is 105,700 light years across. Our signals have made it 0.00057% of the way across our galaxy since we set up SETI. Frankly, we have no fucking idea what's out there, or who.



Yeah, at least 125 BILLION other galaxies... but they believe the number will rise to around 200 billion with James webb's observations.

"First to leave our rock" is specifically what I'm suggesting as a possibility, not first life or first intelligent life.

There's probably much life in the universe is aquatic or underground. There's a lot of radiation out there, life on the surface is likely rough on a lot of planets. We might have life in our solar system even, on Europa or whatever, but it's extremely difficult to imagine how life in such a place could evolve to the point that they produce technology capable of getting themselves or their messages off of their rock.

The Sol system is fortunate that it's far enough away from the center of the galaxy that we don't have to deal with much radiation. Planets closer to the center of the galaxy have a lot more flack to deal with from their stellar neighbors. To put it in perspective -- closer to the center of the galaxy, light from other stars is so bright that you could likely read a book AT NIGHT *just* by starlight! Which is interesting but it also means you're being bombarded by way more of the radiation from the rest of the electromagnetic spectrum as well.

Change of subject but hey, as far as the time-frames you suggested -- what if the aliens have a universe simulation computer? They could have known ages ago that humans were going to evolve. They could have been ready for it. They could have headed this way when we were still perfecting obsidian axes a million years ago.

 

[pharmakos]

I mean way back.

What modern technology have the chinese invented? They use western technology for their own collectivist fascist purposes. They also use it to fight the western world.

Not worth it, inviting this strange human tribe into modernity. For what? Junk trade? Useless plastic? Same for many others.

US is of course deserving of much criticism as well. The whole democratic imperialism endeavour is disgusting.

They've got a lot of their own technology. They've got spy satellites. They've landed rovers on the moon. They've advanced a LOT in the past 20-30 years.

 

[unodelacosa]

Ok so since we’re on that channel, let’s pull up a couple vids vis-à-vis the Fermi Paradox by the same people:

Part I:


Part II:


Some people are proponents of the idea that the paradox can be explained by concluding that the known universe is actually just a simulation we are all in. But that’s a solipsistic nightmare caked in existential dilemma. No thanks. I think it’s entirely possible that either 1. intelligent life is even rarer than we can conceive of, thus making our brains one of the rarest things in the universe but we take that rarity for granted without appreciating it fully for what it is… or 2. the distance between two co-existing intelligent lifeforms is virtually insurmountable while the speed of light remains a physical ceiling. Or maybe both, or it’s vastly more complex than that.

Either way, evidence of alien life = nil. I don’t believe in something until there’s evidence. Sure, it’s fun to think about and write science fiction about the topic, but it’s just that – fiction.

 

[Mjäll]

They've got a lot of their own technology. They've got spy satellites. They've landed rovers on the moon. They've advanced a LOT in the past 20-30 years.

Yes i'm very aware, but they wouldn't have done that without building on western technology.

I find this fascinating to ponder. I understand that humanity has a deep, largely common ancestry of hidden knowledge and a somewhat cyclical nature that should inspire a sense of humility. I don't have a naive concept of western superiority. However, i feel there is an intellectual taboo on European identity and rooting for one's own team in this sense. I am compelled to reflect on global modernization as an enormous strategic mistake by Europeans and modern Americans. Acknowledging the naturality and inevitable foundationality (is that a word?) of tribes and in-group bias can be part of understanding humanity on a grander scale. Opposites sometimes do collapse in that way. In this case, the opposites of holistic versus particular thinking with regards to our existence.

 

[pharmakos]

Yes i'm very aware, but they wouldn't have done that without building on western technology.

I find this fascinating to ponder. I understand that humanity has a deep, largely common ancestry of hidden knowledge and a somewhat cyclical nature that should inspire a sense of humility. I don't have a naive concept of western superiority. However, i feel there is an intellectual taboo on European identity and rooting for one's own team in this sense. I am compelled to reflect on global modernization as an enormous strategic mistake by Europeans and modern Americans. Acknowledging the naturality and inevitable foundationality (is that a word?) of tribes and in-group bias can be part of understanding humanity on a grander scale. Opposites sometimes do collapse in that way. In this case, the opposites of holistic versus particular thinking with regards to our existence.

How could we keep the knowledge from them? At the very least, they can send Chinese students to American universities and learn it all. Unless we literally close the borders and cut trade / internet connections with them.

But even that likely wouldn't be enough since sites like http://Sci-Hub.ru where anyone in the world regardless of nation or income can access cutting edge science papers.

I mean shit we had guys in caves in the Middle East learning aviation and bomb making and shit.

 

[Mjäll]

How could we keep the knowledge from them? At the very least, they can send Chinese students to American universities and learn it all. Unless we literally close the borders and cut trade / internet connections with them.

But even that likely wouldn't be enough since sites like http://Sci-Hub.ru where anyone in the world regardless of nation or income can access cutting edge science papers.

I mean shit we had guys in caves in the Middle East learning aviation and bomb making and shit.

I don't have a clear suggestion and it's obviously too late for whatever. It's more of a shift in mental frame to me.

To be clear, i'm talking about a strategic mistake that would go hundreds of years back.

 

[pharmakos]

The United Nations Universal Declaration of Human Rights says that all people have the right to participate in the global community and share in the benefits of science. Article 27.

 

[Chris Timothy]

There's probably much life in the universe is aquatic or underground. There's a lot of radiation out there, life on the surface is likely rough on a lot of planets. We might have life in our solar system even, on Europa or whatever, but it's extremely difficult to imagine how life in such a place could evolve to the point that they produce technology capable of getting themselves or their messages off of their rock.

Current understanding of abiogenesis points to the interaction of gas and liquid as cornerstone process. Life on Europa only seems reasonable from the assumption that somehow water bore life on Earth. Yet the selection process underlying life only manifests in media transitions. Unless there's somehow a drying process somewhere in that ocean of Europa, life can't be. Chemically, water is but a solvent.

 

[pharmakos]

Current understanding of abiogenesis points to the interaction of gas and liquid as cornerstone process. Life on Europa only seems reasonable from the assumption that somehow water bore life on Earth. Yet the selection process underlying life only manifests in media transitions. Unless there's somehow a drying process somewhere in that ocean of Europa, life can't be. Chemically, water is but a solvent.

Origins of life: new evidence first cells could have formed at the bottom of the ocean

Where did life come from? In recent years, many scientists have shifted from favouring a "primordial soup" in pools of water to hydrothermal vents deep in the ocean as the original source of life on Earth. But one of the biggest problems with this idea is that researchers have been unable to...

phys.org