novaveritas
Bluelighter
- Joined
- Jun 8, 2018
- Messages
- 991
The much touted regional R value in the UK comes from a model at MRC Cambridge, conceived and coded so badly it makes Fergusons utterly incorrect doomy Imperial College model look logical and sane. It is the same model that has not managed to predict case numbers in flu season once in the 10 or so years of its miserable existence, not even close.
All these models stop making any sense and lose all their supposed predictive value once you look under the hood and see the utter crap logic and assumptions that drives them. The MRC model uses a function that sucks up all deaths and hospitalizations and assigns a proportion to Covid, and then flies back through time to estimate the number of infections back then based on those padded numbers, guess what, as people die at a fairly constant rate the estimated R hovers around the goldilocks number of 1, not too many new infections because people would notice there are not enough cases (bodies piling up) to fit the model prediction, but not too few because then people would start saying what is the fuss about and why are vast amounts of money being wasted on vaccine development and all the other wasteful scams the government has justified on the basis of the end of the world virus TM.
The MRC and Imperial modelers should switch to global warming forecasts and models so they can continue their useless work without anyone ever questioning them for fear of being called a climate change denier.
All these models stop making any sense and lose all their supposed predictive value once you look under the hood and see the utter crap logic and assumptions that drives them. The MRC model uses a function that sucks up all deaths and hospitalizations and assigns a proportion to Covid, and then flies back through time to estimate the number of infections back then based on those padded numbers, guess what, as people die at a fairly constant rate the estimated R hovers around the goldilocks number of 1, not too many new infections because people would notice there are not enough cases (bodies piling up) to fit the model prediction, but not too few because then people would start saying what is the fuss about and why are vast amounts of money being wasted on vaccine development and all the other wasteful scams the government has justified on the basis of the end of the world virus TM.
The MRC and Imperial modelers should switch to global warming forecasts and models so they can continue their useless work without anyone ever questioning them for fear of being called a climate change denier.