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Covid-19 Outbreak of new SARS-like coronavirus (Covid-19)

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14,000+..

In the City of Wuhan, citizens have taken to opening their windows and shouting chants of encouragement into the street, as well as singing patriotic songs, all to help each other keep it together
 
are they dead ? or do they just have it ?

i heard it was lethal. or mortality rate is not good?

is there hope ?
 
Hylight said:
are they dead ? or do they just have it ?

i heard it was lethal. or mortality rate is not good?

is there hope ?
Click to expand...

It's the number infected.

I don't see that there's reason to need to hope. The odds of you personally dying from it are very low compared to a bunch of other stuff that could kill you that you're likely not worrying about at all.

Sucks for anyone who has it. But it also sucks for the millions who die in car accidents every year, we don't stop driving though.

Just live your life and forgot about it, that's what I intend to do anyway.
 
492 dead, 859 recovered

This after more than a month.

People say "only 500 dead at 24000 cases" but what they fail to realize is how very few have recovered yet.

Recovery or death is an OUTCOME, so far we have only 1351 outcomes, of which 36.4% fatal. The prognosis is IMPROVING as doictors try every treatment and drug combi in the books, but so far, outcomewise, over 1 in 3 didnt make it.
 
lol, dun dun dun, I'm just highlighting to add to the panic and confusion, we should all focus on exactly those bits though. 🤧
On late Saturday evening (Feb. 1), Tencent, on its webpage titled "Epidemic Situation Tracker", showed confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (2019nCoV) in China as standing at 154,023, 10 times the official figure at the time. It listed the number of suspected cases as 79,808, four times the official figure.

The number of cured cases was only 269, well below the official number that day of 300. Most ominously, the death toll listed was 24,589, vastly higher than the 300 officially listed that day.
Click to expand...
www.taiwannews.com.tw

Tencent may have accidentally leaked real data on Wuhan virus deaths | Taiwan News | 2020/02/05

Tencent briefly lists 154,023 infections and 24,589 deaths from Wuhan coronavirus.As many experts question the veracity of China's statistics for the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak, Tencent over the weekend seems to have inadvertently released what is potentially the actual number of infections and...
www.taiwannews.com.tw www.taiwannews.com.tw
I'm sure it was an honest mistake though. 8(
 
Asante said:
492 dead, 859 recovered

This after more than a month.

People say "only 500 dead at 24000 cases" but what they fail to realize is how very few have recovered yet.

Recovery or death is an OUTCOME, so far we have only 1351 outcomes, of which 36.4% fatal. The prognosis is IMPROVING as doictors try every treatment and drug combi in the books, but so far, outcomewise, over 1 in 3 didnt make it.
Click to expand...

Recovered in that sense is recovery from hospitalization (/discharge), not recovery of every person who gets the disease and doesn't go to the hospital. Because measuring recovery from hospitals is easier than recovery of random people not in the system. Most of the cases from that determination aren't included in your two figures. While perhaps you could say 1/3 people who go to the hospital don't make it, even that calc is off because it doesn't include cases not resolved in the hospital/ongoing or deaths relative outside to inside the hospital, and would be a misrepresentation. Hospital case rates with pneumonia appears closer to 10-15%. Also superinfection in vulnerable patients. (And you need to consider the comparison to other pneumonias in some populations, like COPDers).

That's why there is a difference for case fatality rate vs. hospitalization related, etc...

Now MERS, that had a 1/3 case fatality rate, which would be 8000 deaths from 24000 cases.


Here is a paper covering timelines/characteristics of some of the initial cases of more severe illness with this coronavirus, with some incubation time estimates (~5 (range to 13 days for this type of pneumonia/outcome on some exposures)) and suggested quarantine times.
50%+ of those cases were in people over 60 with other comorbidities and almost all have been in adults (more severe)

Time course isn't like that.
www.cdc.gov

Healthcare Workers

COVID-19 guidance, tools, and resources for healthcare workers.
www.cdc.gov www.cdc.gov
 
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Expect "Cascading Global Impact" As Coronavirus Causes Massive Manufacturing Disruptions Worldwide

China has now placed hundreds of millions of its citizens under quarantine, leaving its economy grinding to a halt.

Workers can’t leave their homes. Factories are idle. Most (if not all) of China’s ports are no longer shipping. International flights are increasingly banned from the country.

As PeakProsperity.com's Chris Martenson details below, when the world’s #2 economy hangs up a big “CLOSED” sign, that’s going to result in a major negative impact on global trade.

As the manufacturing powerhouse to the world, you’ll be challenged to think of ANY industry that won’t experience serious supply chain interruptions and shortages from China’s woes. For instance, did you know China makes the vast majority of our prescription pharmaceuticals?

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com
 
I didn't know that about the pharms... heh, I got a "love letter" when they caught me importing pharms from overseas. They confiscated them and instead sent me a pamphlet about the terrible dangers of overseas medications not from the USA. According to the pamphlet, it is illegal to import pharmaceuticals even with a prescription.

But yeah this will definitely have ramifications for the global economy, short-term anyway.
 
jpgrdnr said:
So what do you think? This gonna be big or is this a fart in a wind storm? 1000 deaths** confirm/deny
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there is some evidence that 2019 nCOV is the vengeance of the Pangolin,

phys.org

Could illegally trafficked pangolins be the missing link in the coronavirus outbreak?

The deadly coronavirus outbreak, which has killed over 600 people and infected thousands more, may have been transmitted from bats to humans via pangolins, according to new research.
phys.org phys.org

Pangolins are cute and ecologically vital, they are not medicinal or delicacies, Karma may indeed be a bitch.



I think if you are one of the thousands who have died and will die of this it is a big thing, but it is pretty likely to burn out.
Maybe the survivors will not eat pangolin or grind up pangolin scales to make hooey medicines.

Just wait untlil Rhino horn syphillis is a thing.
 
Asante said:
It's gonna be big. We're all gonna know someone who had this, in 2 years.
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logic failure. All is everyone, but the people who die from this will not know anyone in 2 years because they are dead. Therefore you are incorrect.

I don't see it being particularly big. I have quit pangolin though
 
I don't want the pandemic to happen either, but its almost inevitable that it's going to.

Its a good time to beef up your pantry with quality foods and supplies and to make plans.
 
Asante said:
I don't want the pandemic to happen either, but its almost inevitable that it's going to.

Its a good time to beef up your pantry with quality foods and supplies and to make plans.
Click to expand...

If you look at the numbers and make some guesses, so multiply the number of infected people by 10 or 20x which seems reasonable, the diagnosed numbers reflect only the numbers of tests that can be done and the numbers that seek medical assistance. This indicates there are at least 500,000 to 1mln people who are or have been infected. Out of these million perhaps 1 in 50 are ending up in hospital and out of those 1 in 50 in hospital there is a current CFR of 25% which will decline as more recover. Overall mortality rate is therefore less than 1 in 200 and will decline.

The R0 in china seems to be about 2.5, each infected patient infects 2.5 others on average. The R0 outside of China is unknown. The weather will warm over the next few months, R0 will then decline because there will be less close contact between susceptables. It does also seem that higher ACE2 expression in the lungs makes Asians more susceptable and more likely to suffer more severely. I suspect that there are already people who have been infected all over the world but they are asymptomatic and will remain asymptomatic. I also suspect that the virus was being widely transmitted well before China realised.

All that assumes that the virus doesn't evolve or mutate, remembering it is just as likely to mutate to being less virulent as more virulent. I think it will fade out. There are already coronaviruses circulating in human populations and they have done for a long time, those other coronaviruses can lead to viral pneumonia too but not often. Pockets of nCOV may remain but the Pangolins Revenge mis-timed its appearance.

I shall be avoiding airports til May anyway.
 
So much for China's suppressed graph... Blammo, exponential outbreak. This is today's graph, 2 hours old:

fumbled data.jpg

.
I wish COVID19 was a cryptocurrency and I was in it :(
 
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