birdup.snaildown
Greenlighter
JGrimez said:
Yes, it is sad.
We're all going to miss you around here when you lose your bet.
Covid-19 Outbreak of new SARS-like coronavirus (Covid-19)
- Thread starter S.J.B.
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Yes, it is sad.
We're all going to miss you around here when you lose your bet.
novaveritas
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I will deal with the most obvious problem in the proof you have presented, two of your examples of hard lockdowns were nothing of the sort.
Japan did not use hard lock downs, It did very little other than allow people to make their own decisions. It did not do widespread testing, 0.2% of the population were tested, it did not use surveillance, yet one quarter of Japans population is over 65, and supposedly their strategy should have resulted in 400k deaths it did not, it gave sanctuary to the cruise ships unlike NZ.
Neither did South Korea, The used carefully deployed reverse contract testing and they also have one of the best health care systems in the world with the best quality and quantity of capacity per capita.
the other examples are not so clear cut,
China used localised total lockdowns at the start but dropped them early on. China deployed rapid testing and contact tracing. but they didn't get excited by asymptomatic cases they realized early on that nCoV had already been circulating for some time without anyone even noticing.
Australia and New Zealand are not clear cut either. Because of their geographic isolation they have chosen to completely cut themselves off from the world. Both countries are going to suffer significant economic hardship as a consequence and this will feed through into increased mortality.
Taiwan ROC is another Island, they were on it early, no lockdowns, careful deployment of resources, reasonable rules decent healthcare, practically no deaths. Taiwan is not a member of the WHO which is politics and so was ignored.
That is why I say things are not clear cut, you are damned if you do damned if you don't, people are going to die no matter what you choose but the wise old epidemiologists taught us to be humble and measured. Most of all don't act in haste and regret it. First do no harm.
If hard lockdown worked then the effects would be seen in the gompertz curves for different countries with different responses and the effects would be temporally related to the intervention given it is the same virus everywhere with the same transmission characteritistcs the lag would be the same everywhere. JPM looked at this with their quants and saw nothing. cherry picking examples where the disease appears to have disappeared and ascribing that as due by lockdown is classic fallacy. Post hoc ergo propter hoc.
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i'm not sure you really understand what that means in practice. maybe you choose not to?
alasdair
birdup.snaildown
Greenlighter
Every country has taken a different approach.
I used to live in Japan. They wear masks all the time. They didn't need to have mandatory masks and enforce them with penalties because you don't have to threaten fines in Japan in order for people to do the right thing.
South Korea enforced isolation and social distancing.
I will admit they were bad examples of hard lock-downs. They didn't do nothing. The virus didn't magically contain itself. They didn't need to do hard lock-downs. Their situation isn't comparable to the UK or the US. Honestly, I think the US is beyond saving. The numbers are too high. Even if you could force the US population to lock-down, you'd have to co-ordinate all 50 states and stay in lock-down for like 6 months to contain it at this point. It's too little too late.
They are as isolated from the world as any island that chose to shut themselves off from the rest of the world. It is easier for island nations. Mauritius is easier than New Zealand. New Zealand is easier than Australia... but lock-down clearly worked in these countries to contain the virus. It would be more difficult to control state and federal borders in the United States, but not impossible. You guys definitely could have done a better job than you have. Now I think it is probably too late.
Compare Denmark, Finland, Sweden and Norway. This isn't cherry picking. That is a large cluster of countries in Europe that are not geographically isolated. The Scandinavian lock-down countries (Denmark / Finland / Norway) have stronger economies than Sweden and they have lower case rates and death rates.
I never said things were clear cut. I've repeatedly said that you may be right and, ultimately, time will tell.
I'm not sure why republicans believe that there was widespread voter fraud before the evidence presented itself... and I'm not sure why you believe that more deaths will be caused by lock-down procedures than by COVID since you cannot cite any evidence to support your claims. But, you could be right. I'm not going to pretend that I know the future.
The graphs of daily cases and death rates clearly show declines when countries go into hard lock-down. I've already posted an article that analyzes the effectiveness of lock-downs across six different countries. If I show you a dozen graphs from different countries that show a decline in both cases and deaths will you believe me?
Flibble dib dob, pooty snookle badoo.
I used to live in Japan. They wear masks all the time. They didn't need to have mandatory masks and enforce them with penalties because you don't have to threaten fines in Japan in order for people to do the right thing.
South Korea enforced isolation and social distancing.
I will admit they were bad examples of hard lock-downs. They didn't do nothing. The virus didn't magically contain itself. They didn't need to do hard lock-downs. Their situation isn't comparable to the UK or the US. Honestly, I think the US is beyond saving. The numbers are too high. Even if you could force the US population to lock-down, you'd have to co-ordinate all 50 states and stay in lock-down for like 6 months to contain it at this point. It's too little too late.
novaveritas said:
They are as isolated from the world as any island that chose to shut themselves off from the rest of the world. It is easier for island nations. Mauritius is easier than New Zealand. New Zealand is easier than Australia... but lock-down clearly worked in these countries to contain the virus. It would be more difficult to control state and federal borders in the United States, but not impossible. You guys definitely could have done a better job than you have. Now I think it is probably too late.
Compare Denmark, Finland, Sweden and Norway. This isn't cherry picking. That is a large cluster of countries in Europe that are not geographically isolated. The Scandinavian lock-down countries (Denmark / Finland / Norway) have stronger economies than Sweden and they have lower case rates and death rates.
novaveritas said:
I never said things were clear cut. I've repeatedly said that you may be right and, ultimately, time will tell.
I'm not sure why republicans believe that there was widespread voter fraud before the evidence presented itself... and I'm not sure why you believe that more deaths will be caused by lock-down procedures than by COVID since you cannot cite any evidence to support your claims. But, you could be right. I'm not going to pretend that I know the future.
novaveritas said:
The graphs of daily cases and death rates clearly show declines when countries go into hard lock-down. I've already posted an article that analyzes the effectiveness of lock-downs across six different countries. If I show you a dozen graphs from different countries that show a decline in both cases and deaths will you believe me?
novaveritas said:
Flibble dib dob, pooty snookle badoo.
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JGrimez
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There's no denying it anymore. Our bodily sovereignty is being taken from us and the plan is for us to be as tightly tracked, controlled, monitored and vaccinated and branded like cattle on a farm. Unless we resist this with everything we have, the vaccinations are supposed to be annual by the way. From now on, humanity is supposed to be injected with a substance basically every year, and the manufacturers of this substance have immunity from liability for any damages caused. Mass civil disobedience and non-compliance is the only way forward. The mandatory vaccine is the ultimate and final test to see if there's anything that will wake up the normie masses.
The general public seem to not understand the actual value of freedom and have been so utterly complacent for the past 8 months that they have no idea as to how hard-fought our rights and liberties were to begin with and how easily lost that they are. We will soon find out just how compliant they are and if there is any major fight left within them. If people don't want the vaccine but will only take it because they can't travel to visit their family or something, that's really cowardly. That's admitting that you're not free. That's admitting that the state can inject you with whatever they want in order for you to go about your life as you did before. Come on, this is tyranny. This is something to fight. Not to comply with because "it's really difficult, you can't travel without it, better get injected". This is CRAZY thinking. We should never have permitted this tyranny to last as long as it has. And to be honest there's no end of it in sight at the present time until people stop complying.
But alas, a generation that has been raised to see the government as an omnipresent parental figure from cradle to the grave was always going to be too trusting of authority and essentially infantilized.
The general public seem to not understand the actual value of freedom and have been so utterly complacent for the past 8 months that they have no idea as to how hard-fought our rights and liberties were to begin with and how easily lost that they are. We will soon find out just how compliant they are and if there is any major fight left within them. If people don't want the vaccine but will only take it because they can't travel to visit their family or something, that's really cowardly. That's admitting that you're not free. That's admitting that the state can inject you with whatever they want in order for you to go about your life as you did before. Come on, this is tyranny. This is something to fight. Not to comply with because "it's really difficult, you can't travel without it, better get injected". This is CRAZY thinking. We should never have permitted this tyranny to last as long as it has. And to be honest there's no end of it in sight at the present time until people stop complying.
But alas, a generation that has been raised to see the government as an omnipresent parental figure from cradle to the grave was always going to be too trusting of authority and essentially infantilized.
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birdup.snaildown
Greenlighter
JessFR
Bluelight Crew
I'm not sure anyone really understands what it means. It's just something to put on placards and bumper stickers.
It's easy to be united behind an idea so vague that everyone can kinda make it their own.
Xorkoth
Bluelight Crew
Wise words (as always with Carl Sagan), but they can be just as easily applied to the side you're on.
JessFR
Bluelight Crew
Xorkoth
Bluelight Crew
Defund the police is widely regarded by people who support it as an awful branding of the movement, as its original intent and the intent of almost everyone who supports it is not to eliminate the police (not at all), but to quit outfitting and training them as paramilitary and buying tanks and shit for them, and to invest some of that money instead into better de-escalation training, mental health service for cops, and mental health services for civilians who are at risk of committing crime due to mental illness, and social services to help support people at risk for committing crimes due to poverty. The people failing to acknowledge or see that are drinking the kool-aid of media trying to demonize it. Yes there are extremists who think we should abolish the police, but those are a very slim minority. I am unaware of anyone in government trying to push abolition of the police. Certainly you can agree that police departments don't need tanks? isn't it absurd how police departments are run currently? The police should not be a paramilitary force. Yeah there are special strike force teams to bust up cartels and such that need automatic weapons and SWAT gear and stuff, but we're way overboard at the moment. Police brutality is high against all citizens, and that is a problem we need to address. Giving cops stronger weapons and tanks, and continuing to train them to shoot to kill instead of de-escalate is not going to help, but changing the way we fund the police and run police departments will.
The movement should have been called "revamp the police" or something.
JGrimez
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And no doubt the whole of 2022 and the whole of 2023 and forever, until the masses wake up and decide to stop acting like muzzled, submissive slaves and treating each other as if they're sick when they're perfectly healthy. The frogs have been boiling in their pots for months and they've been normalized by long-term exposure to things like lockdowns, masks, social distancing and obsessive hand sanitizing. It only takes a few weeks to establish a new routine and the social engineers and high-IQ psychologists who've been gradually modifying human behavior through their mind-control propaganda techniques, they fully understood this.
Promise people that a restriction is only temporary and then continuously move the goalposts as the weeks and months pass.
Once the public get used to the new normal, a collective amnesia takes place and they no longer remember life before masks and social distancing. A life when such things would be considered absolutely unthinkable, repugnant and oppressive ideas. Part of the normalization process is to continuously adjust public expectations as to how long these measures will be in place. Once a sufficient number of people are wearing the mask, social distancing and complying with the rules for long enough, they will have been successfully conditioned and retrained to accept these things as social norms.
If your vaccine works, why do you need me to be vaccinated? Just vaccinate all the people who want to be vaccinated. It's highly suspicious that they really really really want to take choice away from people and they want to make sure that everyone, including people who aren't vulnerable to this, are also vaccinated. It really makes you wonder...
So much for 2 weeks to flatten the curve....
It's all been leading to this. It's all been leading to the vaccination.
Faithful companions, like a dog or something?
Your muzzle that robs you of your humanity and identity.
This is your faithful companion.
JGrimez
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The Sagan quote was related to covid, actually.
The topic of this thread.
I'm seeing a lot of off-topic posts (that aren't getting automatically deleted for some reason).
JessFR
Bluelight Crew
That's all great, and I agree, but the problem is... It's still called defund the police.
That it's regarded as a terrible brand is completely correct.
JGrimez
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What side am I on? I stopped supporting Democrats in 2010, and Trump in 2018.
All I see is ideologically-possessed people who can't help projecting or making assumptions.
Xorkoth
Bluelight Crew
No doubt, wish it hadn't caught on because the original people trying to make the movement happen did not intend for the idea to be to remove police as an institution, as that idea is madness, as most everyone agrees.
Xorkoth
Bluelight Crew
Clearly you're on the opposite side of this issue as the people you quoted that to. That's what I meant. In general, such a quote can be applied to any position, the logical process in general.
And this is what people see in you, as well. It's really hard to see outside of that so you're in good company. I try but I'm sure I do it too.
JessFR
Bluelight Crew
It's like the branding was delegated to the most extreme members of the movement then everyone else wound up stuck with it. :D
Xorkoth
Bluelight Crew
I heard an interview with Senate majority whip what's-his-name on NPR, and he said that the name was created by a sensationalist media article and has stuck.
novaveritas
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So given you believe lockdowns cause the declines then you must also believe that when lockdowns are released the R0 will go back up. Given that R0 is the only thing lockdowns can effect. In the graph below it is all US states, so they are more similar than Australia and Mongolia or whatever other cherry picked examples you have. pretty chart for you.
There are plenty of papers out there that show no, read zero, inflections (turning over of the curve) temporally associated with lockdowns. most of the evidence show inflection at a time before lockdown could conceivably have changed R0, the causality test is failed. It is not clear cut as you simplistically try and make out.
Each wave naturally inflects long before general uniformly mixed population herd immunity, this is because mixing is the real world is not uniform infection takes time. I could go into the math but I doubt you would understand the proof. If you want to look into it you need to look up Erdos and graph theory
I don't have to believe you, I evaluate the evidence presented and so far what you have presented to support your idea is weak and inconclusive doesn't survive even basic scrutiny. Your case is unproven. Science is not a religion or a popularity contest.
nice puerile comeback to post hoc ergo prompter hoc. On that basis it looks like you are way out of your depth, so now I will end this discussion with another bit of latin, Nullis in verba. the motto of the Royal Society, which is roughly translates as take no ones word, it actually means show me the evidence, de facto put up or shut up.
Sure. My state Victoria has gone from uncontrolled outbreak (like most places world wide) to being officially Covid-19 free as of yesturday.
0 new cases in 28 days. 0 hospitalized or being treated. How?
We put up with 7 months of the strictest 'enforcement/measures' of any other city in the world (including Wuhan at its worst)
Yes. It sucked major ass. But we are the first proof that a state of 6.8 Million people can Eliminate Covid-19 if it has too.
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