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Social OPK Gambling Picks and Discussion - Let's talk sports.

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OpiateKiller

OpiateKiller

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Feb 14, 2019
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I'm gonna get pretty heavy into gambling now that the prime season is coming into play. They say baseball is the most analytical and statistically predictable and successful sport to bet. I somewhat agree however have found my biggest successes in college football, basketball and the NFL.

I enjoyed betting the UFC but after some real questionable split decisions on the judges cards I find it hard to gamble. Unless I'm picking a submission or KO I have been keeping my distance.

I got some great parlays and bets for NFL / College FB I'll post shortly.

Tonight I had :

Yankees -1
Dodgers -1
Cardinals -1

Parlay, it's not looking too hot. You win some you lose some. As a handicapper transparency is key.

I made $10,000 selling sports picks on instagram and have done this a long time. So let's get to it.
 
Changed your prefix to Social, as you might have misread "gardening" as "gambling. I might go ahead and make a nice "gambling" or "betting" prefix a little later.
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Can’t post a picture I cashed it and second I’ve never been able to figure out how to post a pic to Bluelight plus I wouldn’t want to give my location up
 
OpiateKiller said:
Can’t post a picture I cashed it and second I’ve never been able to figure out how to post a pic to Bluelight plus I wouldn’t want to give my location up
Click to expand...

upload to imgur app or another hosting service and it erases the location data. It gives you a URL and you copy/paste it here. Click on the photo button above where you type when you post and paste it into there.
 
NFL WEEK 3 Picks

Tampa Bay -3 (I think Jameis Winston goes back to interception central)
Miami Money Line +175 - I think Miami is greatly underrated this year, I think with the addition of Tyreek Hill, a new head coach, and Tua coming together as a a QB they are going to be super bowl contenders if they can piece it together. This is a great value bet.
Washington Money Line +115 - I think Jared Goff is overrated and the Detriot Lions are forever cursed, and I think Carson Wentz is underrated as long as hes not injured.
Seattle Seahawks +10 - this seems crazy to me after they just upset Denver and beat Russell.. SF had a terrible first game and 10 points in the NFL is a lot. Take the hawks

Money Line explained - the team simply has to win
Spread +/- - the team must win by this amount to win the bet

 
well, yeah. but the line is set initially and i don't think that particular line moved by more than a 0.5pt between opening and game day.

alasdair
 
on this subject..

How accurate are NFL spreads? To understand that, we can review some basic statistics regarding 1,536 regular season NFL games from 2012 to 2017. The median spread of these games was 4, the median outcome was 27-17. Of those games, the favorite won 66% of the games
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gamblersanalytics.com

How Accurate are NFL Spreads?

How accurate are NFL spreads? To understand that, we can review some basic statistics regarding 1,536 regular season NFL games from 2012 to 2017. The median spread of these games was 4, the median …
gamblersanalytics.com gamblersanalytics.com


this is weird
Over the past five seasons, the typical Week 1 NFL betting line has been 8.64 points off the mark from the game’s actual result. The average difference across all 17 weeks was 10.25 points.
Click to expand...
 
Killer as soon as I pull my head out of my own ass im going to try a conservative approach taking favorites on the money line.. thoughts?
 
neversickanymore said:
Killer as soon as I pull my head out of my own ass im going to try a conservative approach taking favorites on the money line.. thoughts?
Click to expand...

Yeah I like to do that too in parlays unfortunately it seems when you take 4+ though there’s always an upset
 
So I’m going to put this in tomorrow.. GB on the ML -475. Hundo pays out about 22$ . It’s not like grinding in cards because it takes me a fucking second.. we will see where this goes.
 
that seems like a really poor value bet.

i mean the packers look like solid favorites but any sunday...

alasdair
 
alasdairm said:
that seems like a really poor value bet.

i mean the packers look like solid favorites but any sunday...

alasdair
Click to expand...
It may be and maybe I should just keep track of intended bets to see how this strategy works out before laying money down.

But favorites win 66% of the time heavy favorites should win almost every time. They just need to win more than 4 in 5 for this strategy to be lock money.
 
neversickanymore said:
It may be and maybe I should just keep track of intended bets to see how this strategy works out before laying money down.

But favorites win 66% of the time heavy favorites should win almost every time. They just need to win more than 4 in 5 for this strategy to be lock money.
Click to expand...

Honestly bro yes but for me I’d rather risk less and win more so I usually parlay and try to take underdogs if I can find them

Would you be more sad losing $100 when you were gonna win $22? Or more happy winning $22?

Or more happy losing $20 to win $100, even though it’s much less likely.

But yeah honestly Green Bay tomorrow is pretty much a lock
 
@OpiateKiller its not about the bet in this case its about a money lock.. so everyone knows that the betting systems don’t gamble.. so can this be exploited on the Heavy fav ml? I’m thinking it can small
Personal bets.
 
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