Israel is under attack

[Electrum1]

If Hamas’ numbers are faked or fraudulent in some way, there may be evidence in the numbers themselves that can demonstrate it. While there is not much data available, there is a little, and it is enough: From Oct. 26 until Nov. 10, 2023, the Gaza Health Ministry released daily casualty figures that include both a total number and a specific number of women and children.
The first place to look is the reported “total” number of deaths. The graph of total deaths by date is increasing with almost metronomical linearity, as the graph in Figure 1 reveals.

The graph reveals an extremely regular increase in casualties over the period. Data aggregated by the author and provided by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), based on Gaza MoH figures.
This regularity is almost surely not real. One would expect quite a bit of variation day to day. In fact, the daily reported casualty count over this period averages 270 plus or minus about 15%. This is strikingly little variation. There should be days with twice the average or more and others with half or less

https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/how-gaza-health-ministry-fakes-casualty-numbers

 

[mal3volent]

https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/how-gaza-health-ministry-fakes-casualty-numbers

Taken together, what does this all imply? While the evidence is not dispositive, it is highly suggestive that a process unconnected or loosely connected to reality was used to report the numbers. Most likely, the Hamas ministry settled on a daily total arbitrarily. We know this because the daily totals increase too consistently to be real. Then they assigned about 70% of the total to be women and children, splitting that amount randomly from day to day. Then they in-filled the number of men as set by the predetermined total. This explains all the data observed.

There are other obvious red flags. The Gaza Health Ministry has consistently claimed that about 70% of the casualties are women or children. This total is far higher than the numbers reported in earlier conflicts with Israel. Another red flag, raised by Salo Aizenberg and written about extensively, is that if 70% of the casualties are women and children and 25% of the population is adult male, then either Israel is not successfully eliminating Hamas fighters or adult male casualty counts are extremely low. This by itself strongly suggests that the numbers are at a minimum grossly inaccurate and quite probably outright faked. Finally, on Feb. 15, Hamas admitted to losing 6,000 of its fighters, which represents more than 20% of the total number of casualties reported.

Taken together, Hamas is reporting not only that 70% of casualties are women and children but also that 20% are fighters. This is not possible unless Israel is somehow not killing noncombatant men, or else Hamas is claiming that almost all the men in Gaza are Hamas fighters.

 

[Pissed_and_messed]

"This is not possible unless Israel is somehow not killing noncombatant men, or else Hamas is claiming that almost all the men in Gaza are Hamas fighters."

Well, wasn't that pretty much the thesis?

I wish I could say something else but I haven't got anything.

 

[mal3volent]

Well, wasn't that pretty much the thesis?

The thesis is that they count all people under 18 as children in the death counts, even though there are Hamas fighters under 18. Who have been training since they were actual children.

So no, not every single adult male in Gaza is a Hamas fighter. But also: not every dead civilian was actually a civilian.

The numbers are not reliable in several ways and that article does a good job of explaining why.

 

[Jnowhere]

One could only imagine if the firepower situation was reversed. Holocaust 2.0

 

[Rachrach]

I don't know if it was intentional or not, but you left out of the quote of my comment E: inheritance in that grand scale you are pursuing or something to that effect.

I recognize that nations, borders and states and justice systems and stuff, are not completely trivial or without value, even tho I am sort of an anarchist or at least somewhat close to anarchist. But you are trying to take those concepts so far, it gets just mess. But if you really want to look at it with some distorted eyeglasses you may find some purpose in it, I guess, but when you do that, you don't realize it couldn't work or is not practical because of all the other facts you have dismissed.

I don't know if it was intentional or not, but you left out of the quote of my comment E: inheritance in that grand scale you are pursuing or something to that effect.

I recognize that nations, borders and states and justice systems and stuff, are not completely trivial or without value, even tho I am sort of an anarchist or at least somewhat close to anarchist. But you are trying to take those concepts so far, it gets just mess. But if you really want to look at it with some distorted eyeglasses you may find some purpose in it, I guess, but when you do that, you don't realize it couldn't work or is not practical because of all the other facts you have dismissed.

I don't know if it was intentional or not, but you left out of the quote of my comment E: inheritance in that grand scale you are pursuing or something to that effect.

I recognize that nations, borders and states and justice systems and stuff, are not completely trivial or without value, even tho I am sort of an anarchist or at least somewhat close to anarchist. But you are trying to take those concepts so far, it gets just mess. But if you really want to look at it with some distorted eyeglasses you may find some purpose in it, I guess, but when you do that, you don't realize it couldn't work or is not practical because of all the other facts you have dismissed.

I am not sure how to respond. Seems that you agree with me on the issue of Statism, but believe that Jews have no inherent right to a state because it entails too much. If so? What do you imagine erasing Israel would entail? Sans major repression you will not find a single 1 of the 22 extant Arab States that can exist without Arabs turning in on each other. Palestinians are no diffeent.

In fact, examine how HAMAS came to power in Gaza. Dropping kids head first off of sky scrapers (literally) was not a pretty sight. If Palestinians so easily do that, imagine what awaits Jews if there was to be a "1 State Solution."

What about a "2 State Solution?" Israel at its narrowest within the Greenline) is 9km & change. In just an hour Palestinians could vivisect Israel. In standard warfare fit infantrymen on foot in full kit can do the severing in 15 minutes or less. Never mind that a sovereign Palestinian State would come to posess all sorts of heavy weaponry. This is why even Rabin only ever envisioned a "State Minus," a polity with zero control of its Airspace & Maritime Space & entirely non militarised. No Palestinian will come out in support of it.

 

[Cheshire_Kat]

I am not sure how to respond. Seems that you agree with me on the issue of Statism, but believe that Jews have no inherent right to a state because it entails too much. If so? What do you imagine erasing Israel would entail? Sans major repression you will not find a single 1 of the 22 extant Arab States that can exist without Arabs turning in on each other. Palestinians are no diffeent.

In fact, examine how HAMAS came to power in Gaza. Dropping kids head first off of sky scrapers (literally) was not a pretty sight. If Palestinians so easily do that, imagine what awaits Jews if there was to be a "1 State Solution."

What about a "2 State Solution?" Israel at its narrowest (in relation to what you surely refer to as "The West Bank") is 9km & change. In just 15 minutes Palestinians could vivisect Israel. In standard warfare fit infantrymen on foot in full kit can do the severing. Never mind that a sovereign Palestinian State would come to posess all sorts of heavy weaponry. This is why even Rabin only ever envisioned a "State Minus," a polity with zero control of its Airspace & Maritime Space. No Palestinian will come out in support of it.

Well, that means Palestine would have to finally recognize the state of Israel. They have yet to actually do that... Israel however did support that solution.
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From Wikipedia :
PLO acceptance of a two-state solution

The first indication that the PLO would be willing to accept a two-state solution, on at least an interim basis, was articulated by Said Hammami in the mid-1970s.

Security Council resolutions dating back to June 1976 supporting the two-state solution based on the pre-1967 lines were vetoed by the United States which supports a two-state solution but argued that the borders must be negotiated directly by the parties.

The Palestinian Declaration of Independence of 15 November 1988, which referenced the UN Partition Plan of 1947 and "UN resolutions since 1947" in general, was interpreted as an indirect recognition of the State of Israel, and support for a two-state solution. The Partition Plan was invoked to provide legitimacy to Palestinian statehood. Subsequent clarifications were taken to amount to the first explicit Palestinian recognition of Israel.

The 2017 Hamas charter presented the Palestinian state being based on the 1967 borders. The text says "Hamas considers the establishment of a Palestinian state, sovereign and complete, on the basis of the June 4, 1967, with Jerusalem as its capital and the provision for all the refugees to return to their homeland." This is in contrast to Hamas' 1988 charter, which previously called for a Palestinian state on all of Mandatory Palestine. Nevertheless, even in the 2017 charter, Hamas did not recognize Israel.

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So there is a fundamental problem with Palestine's position that keeps a two state solution from happening. Both states have to recognize each other...

 

[Pissed_and_messed]

both parties have been around too long, no one could be kicked out at this point anymore.

 

[elgoucho9]

So much madness going on just now with this.

Here in the UK people being arrested for protesting Free Palestine.

Meanwhile in Canada someone was arrested for saying Hamas are terrorists.

The whole thing seems to be being used to withdraw free speech in the West.

 

[Jabberwocky]

I've been looking at the situation from outside the current conflict.

Just somethings I've noticed:

in 1968 Sirhan Sirhan, a Palestinian, assassinated Robert F. Kennedy. He stated that the only connection he had with Kennedy was for the US government's support for isreal.

in 1993 the first world trade center bombing occurred, and again, the terrorists blamed US support for Israel

in 2001 9/11 happened, and once again, terrorist motive was largely based on US support for Israel.

there are many others but those are major events, of terrorism in the US, perpetrated by Palestinians or other Muslims, all due to hating Israel and the US ties

 

[SunriseChampion]

Meanwhile in Canada someone was arrested for saying Hamas are terrorists.

Haven't heard of this. Where in Canada did this happen?

 

[Pissed_and_messed]

if you want people to feel sympathetic towards your persecution, don't elect a government who has violence as their main motive (Hamas).

dude come on this has been gone through again and again and again. The democratic organizating in Palestine is mostly a joke or shadow of what it should be. When the last elections were even made? Did the HAMAS gain 100 % votes? Do you really consider common citizens guilty of the crimes its government does?

 

[Pissed_and_messed]

I'll get to it later, I guess I need to caffeinate myself before I can manage being coherent and relevant.

 

[Pissed_and_messed]

 

[-=SS=-]

Ironically that Jewish settler looks like a classic manifestation of a Reddit moderator

 

[Rachrach]

Well, that means Palestine would have to finally recognize the state of Israel. They have yet to actually do that... Israel however did support that solution.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
From Wikipedia :
PLO acceptance of a two-state solution

The first indication that the PLO would be willing to accept a two-state solution, on at least an interim basis, was articulated by Said Hammami in the mid-1970s.

Security Council resolutions dating back to June 1976 supporting the two-state solution based on the pre-1967 lines were vetoed by the United States which supports a two-state solution but argued that the borders must be negotiated directly by the parties.

The Palestinian Declaration of Independence of 15 November 1988, which referenced the UN Partition Plan of 1947 and "UN resolutions since 1947" in general, was interpreted as an indirect recognition of the State of Israel, and support for a two-state solution. The Partition Plan was invoked to provide legitimacy to Palestinian statehood. Subsequent clarifications were taken to amount to the first explicit Palestinian recognition of Israel.

The 2017 Hamas charter presented the Palestinian state being based on the 1967 borders. The text says "Hamas considers the establishment of a Palestinian state, sovereign and complete, on the basis of the June 4, 1967, with Jerusalem as its capital and the provision for all the refugees to return to their homeland." This is in contrast to Hamas' 1988 charter, which previously called for a Palestinian state on all of Mandatory Palestine. Nevertheless, even in the 2017 charter, Hamas did not recognize Israel.

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So there is a fundamental problem with Palestine's position that keeps a two state solution from happening. Both states have to recognize each other...

Just to point out, again, Israel "Recognised" a State-Minus for Palestinians. That was the most that they could ever achieve even under Israel's most peace-oriented regime. There was NEVER a "2 State Solution." It was just propaganda.

Your feeling that both need mutual Recognition, no. I explained just why this is impossible quite clearly in my previous post.

As for Palestinians, Arafat said 1 thing in Hebrew & English, and another entirely different thing in Arabic. The Palestinians' most peace-oriented regime never even actually revognised Israel's right to exist, let alone political Recognition. There two were likewise propagandised for Western consumption.

Lastly, I have explained that Jordan is a Palestinian State in all but its name.

 

[mal3volent]

Now TURKEY has given official endorsement of Hamas.

Saying the quiet part out loud

 

[Pissed_and_messed]

Yeah Turkeys governments endorsement is as useless as USAs.

 

[Jabberwocky]

It seems like the internet has radically polarized every major political event. Anyone else notice that?

Especially after covid. Each side digs in. Each side has their own stream of information and basically refuses to acknowledge anything from the other side.

Is political discourse dead? Is nuance dead?

 

[Jabberwocky]

Yeah Turkeys governments endorsement is as useless as USAs.

People say US is complicit in genocide due to their endorsement.

It may may be "useless", but it sure has ramifications.

Turkey's endorsement will lead to even more hatred between Muslims and Jews.