What is your basis for these predictions? Why would she do well in OH and IN but not PA? Have you ever even been to Ohio? Yeah, the OH midterms weren't good for the democratic party, but this is still a pretty blue state. There IS a strong contingent of anti-Obama rhetoric here, but it's no stronger now than it was in '08... and the people of this state who dislike Obama aren't big Palin fans either.
If Palin actually got the GOP nomination, I'd be willing to bet that a lot of registered republicans just wouldn't vote. For as much as people hate Obama, anyone with half a brain knows that Palin is even worse.
Why OH and IN but not PA? Because OH and IN are more conservative than PA. Indiana has voted GOP from 1968-2004, OH is not as Republican as IN, but they have a history of voting GOP aswell, while PA has voted Democrat since 1992. They voted GOP in 1988, 1984, and 1980 but before that they were firmly democrat.
I believe she would take the bible belt states for sure (if not all of them, then the vast majority of them), W. Virginia, Virginia, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas, Florida, S. Carolina, N. Carolina, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska.
She'd also take Alaska, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, Montana, N. Dakota, and S. Dakota.
She'd having a fighting chance in Ohio and Indiana, at least.
Romney would take Michigan, so I don't think she'd have a fighting chance there.
She wouldn't be able to take the West Coast States, NY, PA, or any state in New England.