I believe Quantum Physics takes a different approach although I am not really that familiar with either of them.
What about us? Humans. Are our lives completely determined or are they not?
quantum evolution is deterministic. quantum measurement is only indeterministic in certain interpretations of QM. if you expand your quantum system to include your measuring apparatus you get a set answer in each part of the superposition, but 'many worlds.'
however, one cannot predict which world you will end up in, so its not a great idea to play russian roulette. in that sense, our lives are determined, we will live out every possibility we can. but we only experience one.
recent psychological experiments that i can't be bothered to find a citation for showed that we start acting on a decision without having consciously made it, suggesting our actions are determined. i kinda consider a brain to be like a chaotic system, so though the laws governing it are determinisitc, the outcomes of a string of events can't be predicted.
I don't seem to wind up in as much circular reasoning as you have postulated. Things go from a high energy state to a low on until more energy is absorbed into the system. The level of order is determined by the level energy.
i think you mean 'free energy' here, corresponding to a rise in entropy. the level of order, i.e. entropy, does not alone determine energy, as its based on the microstates accessible by a system and there is some probability that a statistical mechanical system will enter a high energy microstate, though the probability is low. (sorry to be penickity but these arguments lose all coherence v quickly once imprecision enters)
for the universe as a whole though, as we can't get more energy from elsewhere, we can confidently say that our best laws of physics predict that its computing its ground state (geometry considerations aside...).
i think there are too many layers of abstraction between physics and consciousness, and not enough knowledge about the bits in between, to really know if the laws of physics being deterministic imply that we behave deterministically.